Carry Trades: Betting Against Safe Haven
We examine contagion and flight-to-quality phenomena implied by carry strategies. More specifically, we analyze correlation dynamics between returns on a global equity index and returns on an investment strategy with a long position in high-yield and a short position in low-yield markets. Modeling information spillovers in a multivariate GARCH framework reveals that correlation increases considerably in response to a negative stock market shock. Moreover, a test for symmetry in exceedance correlation shows that correlation is indeed significantly larger for joint market downturns as opposed to joint market upturns. Our findings suggest that conditional correlation exposes carry traders to a severe diversification meltdown in times of global stock market crises.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Dufourstrasse 50, CH - 9000 St.Gallen|
Phone: +41 71 224 23 25
Fax: +41 71 224 31 35
Web page: http://www.seps.unisg.ch/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-844.
- François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
- Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007.
"The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
- Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2005. "The Cross-Section Of Foreign Currency Risk Premia And Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-019, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-045, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Lustig, H. & Verdelhan, A., 2006. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," Working papers 155, Banque de France.
- Tastan, Hüseyin, 2006. "Estimating time-varying conditional correlations between stock and foreign exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 445-458.
- Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, 09.
- Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2001. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 407, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
- David Michayluk & Patrick J. Wilson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2006. "Asymmetric Volatility, Correlation and Returns Dynamics Between the U.S. and U.K. Securitized Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 109-131, 03. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usg:dp2007:2007-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joerg Baumberger)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.