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Carry Trade Fundamentals And The Financial Crisis 2007-2010

Listed author(s):
  • Claus VISTESEN

This paper takes the form of an event study surrounding the current financial crisis. It proposes a theoretical relationship which can be used to model traditional carry trade crosses on a daily return basis as a negative function of equity returns and a positive function of market volatility. In order to test this theory, an Arbitrage Pricing Theory framework is adopted which is used to estimate the factor betas of carry trade crosses with respect to equity returns and market volatility. It is shown how the variation in the currency crosses explained by the functional relationship as well as the estimated factor betas have increased significantly in relation to the financial crisis. The results indicate that low yielding currencies (the JPY and CHF) can be successfully modelled as a negative function of equity returns and a positive function of volatility in the market. The results furthermore underpin studies that have shown how carry trading activity is highly sensitive towards sudden sparks of volatility and risk aversion, and thus how carry trade fundamentals are time varying.

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File URL: http://www.jaes.reprograph.ro/articles/summer2009/VistenC.pdf
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Article provided by Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova in its journal Journal of Applied Economic Sciences.

Volume (Year): 4 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2(8)_ Summer 2009 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:4:y:2009:i:2(8)_summer2009:68
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www2.spiruharet.ro/facultati/facultate.php?id=14

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  1. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
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  7. Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2011. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(04), pages 1107-1125, September.
  8. De Santis, Roberto A. & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Assessing the benefits of international portfolio diversification in bonds and stocks," Working Paper Series 883, European Central Bank.
  9. Longworth, David, 1981. "Testing the Efficiency of the Canadian-U.S. Exchange Market under the Assumption of no Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 43-49, March.
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  11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7743 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Alexander, Gordon J. & Chervany, Norman L., 1980. "On the Estimation and Stability of Beta," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 123-137, March.
  13. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  14. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Joseph E. Gagnon & Alain P. Chaboud, 2007. "What can the data tell us about carry trades in Japanese yen?," International Finance Discussion Papers 899, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Marie Briere & Bastien Drut, 2009. "The Revenge of Purchasing Power Parity on Carry Trades during Crises," Working Papers CEB 09-013.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  17. Jose Olmo & Keith Pilbeam, 2009. "The profitability of carry trades," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 231-241, March.
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