Partial stochastic analysis with the European Commission's version of the AGLINK-COSIMO model
The Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI) publishes annually its medium-term agricultural outlook for the main agricultural sectors (i.e. cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meat, dairy, and biofuels) using a partial equilibrium model. The report contains EU-wide projections of supply balance sheets (production, consumption, exports, imports, and change in stocks) for the next 8-10 years. It is inevitable that the results from a partial equilibrium simulation model are conditional on values used for variables that enter the model exogenously. These exogenous variables include some of the key drivers of market behaviour. Because of the uncertainty surrounding their assumed values, it is very useful to conduct sensitivity analysis with respect to key exogenous variables. Stochastic analysis has been used in the DG AGRI agricultural outlooks in both 2011 and 2012 to assess the degree of sensitivity of the baseline projections to uncertainty in the macroeconomy and fluctuations in agricultural yields. This report presents the methodology underlying that analysis.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: C/ Inca Garcilaso, s/n 41092 Seville|
Phone: +34 954 48 8318
Fax: +34 954 48 8300
Web page: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Lynch, Michael C., 2002. "Forecasting oil supply: theory and practice," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 373-389.
- Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc76019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Institute Publication Officer)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.