IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Partial stochastic analysis with the European Commission's version of the AGLINK-COSIMO model




The Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI) publishes annually its medium-term agricultural outlook for the main agricultural sectors (i.e. cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meat, dairy, and biofuels) using a partial equilibrium model. The report contains EU-wide projections of supply balance sheets (production, consumption, exports, imports, and change in stocks) for the next 8-10 years. It is inevitable that the results from a partial equilibrium simulation model are conditional on values used for variables that enter the model exogenously. These exogenous variables include some of the key drivers of market behaviour. Because of the uncertainty surrounding their assumed values, it is very useful to conduct sensitivity analysis with respect to key exogenous variables. Stochastic analysis has been used in the DG AGRI agricultural outlooks in both 2011 and 2012 to assess the degree of sensitivity of the baseline projections to uncertainty in the macroeconomy and fluctuations in agricultural yields. This report presents the methodology underlying that analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Zebedee Nii-Naate & Alison Burrell, 2012. "Partial stochastic analysis with the European Commission's version of the AGLINK-COSIMO model," JRC Working Papers JRC76019, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
  • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc76019

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    2. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lynch, Michael C., 2002. "Forecasting oil supply: theory and practice," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 373-389.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Economic analysis; agricultural markets; modelling tools; price volatility; partial stochastic analysis; uncertainty analysis;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc76019. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publication Officer). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.