IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/6165.html

Mexico's 1994 Exchange Rate Crisis Interpreted in Light of the Non-Traded Model

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew M. Warner

Abstract

This paper attempts to make the case that a 2-sector model using the familiar traded non-traded distinction offers a reasonably successful empirical account of why Mexico needed to devalue its exchange rate in 1994. This model provides a way to define and measure disequilibrium in the exchange rate, and thus may be useful in assessing the likelihood of an exchange rate crisis in other developing countries. The results suggest that Mexico's exchange rate was about 25 percent overvalued on the eve of its 1994 crisis, but was much closer to equilibrium by the end of 1996. The approach in this paper is compared with other ways of assessing disequilibrium in the exchange rate, based on purchasing power parity or monetary models of the exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew M. Warner, 1997. "Mexico's 1994 Exchange Rate Crisis Interpreted in Light of the Non-Traded Model," NBER Working Papers 6165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6165
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w6165.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, January.
    2. Campbell, John Y. & Clarida, Richard H., 1987. "The dollar and real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 103-139, January.
    3. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:200-224 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    5. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    7. Asea, Patrick K & Mendoza, Enrique G, 1994. "The Balassa-Samuelson Model: A General-Equilibrium Appraisal," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 244-267, October.
    8. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:229-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Warner, Andrew M., 1994. "Mexico's investment collapse: debt or oil?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 239-256, April.
    10. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, December.
    11. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1991. "The EMS, the EMU, and the Transition to a Common Currency," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 269-328, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:933-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Edison, Hali J. & Pauls, B. Dianne, 1993. "A re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 165-187, April.
    14. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D & Robinson, Sherman, 1993. "External Shocks, Purchasing Power Parity, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(1), pages 45-63, January.
    15. Whitney Newey & Kenneth West, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    16. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Wolf, Holger C., 1994. "International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1225-1244, June.
    17. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    18. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    19. Kaminsky, Graciela Laura, 1986. "Uncertainty, expectations of devaluation, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 29-57, November.
    20. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    21. W. M. Corden, 1960. "The Geometric Representation of Policies to Attain Internal and External Balance," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 28(1), pages 1-22.
    22. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    23. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    24. Sachs, Jeffrey & Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?," Working Papers 95-22, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    25. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    26. T. W.Swan, 1960. "Economic Control In A Dependent Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(73), pages 51-66, March.
    27. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    28. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
    29. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
    30. Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    31. James Meade, 1956. "THE PRICE MECHANISM and THE AUSTRALIAN BALANCE OF PAYMENTS," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 239-256, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roni Frish, 2016. "The Real Exchange Rate in the Long Term," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.03, Bank of Israel.
    2. Jong-Hee Kim, 2017. "Monetary policy spillovers and currency crisis in comparative perspective: East Asia before the 1997 crisis and Eastern Europe after tapering," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 2752-2770, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 1999. "Predicting real exchange rates from real interest rate differentials and net foreign asset stocks: evidence for the mark/dollar parity," Kiel Working Papers 962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    2. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
    3. Lambelet, Jean-Christian & Mihailov, Alexander, 2005. "The Triple-Parity Law," Economics Discussion Papers 8896, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    4. Mark, Nelson C. & Choi, Doo-Yull, 1997. "Real exchange-rate prediction over long horizons," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 29-60, August.
    5. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    6. Vikas Kakkar, 2003. "The Relative Price of Nontraded Goods and Sectoral Total Factor Productivity: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 444-452, May.
    7. John H. Rogers, 1995. "Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data," International Finance Discussion Papers 493, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Intenational Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 119-220.
    9. Kakkar, Vikas & Yan, Isabel, 2014. "Determinants of real exchange rates: : An empirical investigation," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Kakkar, Vikas & Yan, Isabel, 2014. "Determinants of real exchange rates: An empirical investigation," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Kakkar, Vikas & Ogaki, Masao, 1999. "Real exchange rates and nontradables: A relative price approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 193-215, April.
    13. Taylor Mark P. & Sarno Lucio, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies: A Nonlinear Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-26, October.
    14. Yan, Beiling, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity: A Canada/U.S. Exploration," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2002002e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    15. Wu, Jyh-Lin, 1999. "A re-examination of the exchange rate-interest differential relationship: evidence from Germany and Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 319-336, February.
    16. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    17. Habimana, Olivier, 2017. "The multiscale relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals differentials: Empirical evidence from Scandinavia," MPRA Paper 75956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Dramane Coulibaly, 2014. "The impact of market regulations on intra-European real exchange rates," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 529-556, August.
    19. Eric Ruscher & Guntram B. Wolff, 2009. "External rebalancing is not just an exporters' story: real exchange rates, the non-tradable sector and the euro," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 375, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    20. James R. Lothian & Mark P. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod‐Balassa‐Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    21. Chinn, Menzie David, 1997. "Paper pushers or paper money? Empirical assessment of fiscal and monetary models of exchange rate determination," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-78, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.