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The EMU Enlargement and the Choice of the Euro Conversion Rates: Theoretical and Empirical Issues

  • Lukasz Rawdanowicz
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    The paper deals with the choice of the nominal euro conversion rates for the acceding countries upon their accession to EMU. The paper reviews theoretical models of equilibrium exchange rates as well as discusses their interpretation and the ensuing policy recommendations. Problems with empirical estimations of existing models are addressed. It is argued that despite several equilibrium exchange rate theories not all of them are useful for the real policy choice of the nominal conversion rate. This and the intrinsic uncertainty of equilibrium exchange rate estimates lead to the conclusion that the range of “optimal” euro conversion rates is quiet wide and other issues must be taken into account. In particular, a smooth transition to the euro conversion rate and minimisation of risks of potential shocks to the economy should be the key concern. Consequently, recommendations for the selection of nominal conversion rates are largely dependent on the current exchange rate regime.

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    File URL: http://www.case-research.eu/upload/publikacja_plik/1834361_S&A269_corrected2.pdf
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    Paper provided by CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research in its series CASE Network Studies and Analyses with number 0269.

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    Length: 34 Pages
    Date of creation: 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0269
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    1. David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Convergence to the Law of One Price Without Trade Barriers or Currency Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert J. Sonora, 2000. "Price Level Convergence Among United States Cities: Lessons for the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 7681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 1998. "Exchange Rate Assessment; Extension of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," IMF Occasional Papers 167, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    5. Luca Antonio Ricci & Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and New Trade Theory," IMF Working Papers 02/32, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December.
    8. Clemens Grafe & Charles Wyplosz, 1998. "The real exchange rate in transition economies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20268, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2002. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Models," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Ronald MacDonald & Cezary WÛjcik, 2004. "Catching up: The role of demand, supply and regulated price effects on the real exchange rates of four accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 153-179, 03.
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