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Fact and fictions in FX arbitrage processes

Author

Listed:
  • Rod Cross

    () (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Victor Kozyakin

    () (Instititute of Information Transmission problems, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The efficient markets hypothesis implies that arbitrage opportunities in markets such as those for foreign exchange (FX) would be, at most, short-lived. The present paper surveys the fragmented nature of FX markets, revealing that information in these markets is also likely to be fragmented. The “quant†workforce in the hedge fund featured in The Fear Index novel by Robert Harris would have little or no reason for their existence in an EMH world. The four currency combinatorial analysis of arbitrage sequences contained in Cross, Kozyakin, O’Callaghan, Pokrovskii and Pokrovskiy (2012) is then considered. Their results suggest that arbitrage processes, rather than being self-extinguishing, tend to be periodic in nature. This helps explain the fact that arbitrage dealing tends to be endemic in FX markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Rod Cross & Victor Kozyakin, 2014. "Fact and fictions in FX arbitrage processes," Working Papers 1403, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1403
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    2. repec:wsi:wschap:9789813148543_0011 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Rod Cross & Victor Kozyakin & Brian O'Callaghan & Alexei Pokrovskii & Alexey Pokrovskiy, 2012. "Periodic Sequences Of Arbitrage: A Tale Of Four Currencies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 250-294, May.
    4. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
    5. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
    6. Fisher,Franklin M., 1989. "Disequilibrium Foundations of Equilibrium Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521378567, May.
    7. Covrig, Vicentiu & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: does Tokyo know more about the yen?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 271-285, August.
    8. Rod Cross & Victor Kozyakin, 2012. "Double Exponential Instability of Triangular Arbitrage Systems," Papers 1204.3422, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2012.
    9. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange-Rate Forecasting," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 11, pages 457-475 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Alain P. Chaboud & Benjamin Chiquoine & Erik Hjalmarsson & Clara Vega, 2009. "Rise of the machines: algorithmic trading in the foreign exchange market," International Finance Discussion Papers 980, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Osler, Carol L., 2005. "Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-241, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arbitrage sequences; combinatorial analysis; asynchronous systems; the fear index;

    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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