Exchange rate appreciation expectation, importer's behavior and choice of invoicing currency: A theoretical model and Yen's empirical evidence
Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to develop a model to analyze the role of exchange rate appreciation expectation in trade invoicing from the perspective of importers, then empirically analyze it using Japanese export data. Design/methodology/approach–Constructing a theoretical model of importer behavior by analyzing the importer's utility function under an assumption such as “menu cost”, then using econometric method to justify the theoretical model's finding. Findings–It was found that under the assumption of “menu cost”, risk neutrality and price rigidity, there are three directions of appreciation expectation's effect: increasing, unchanged and decreasing theoretically; but under common condition, only a large appreciation expectation will cause an importer to reduce the use of exporter's currency, and the role is constricted by exporters' bargaining capacity. The empirical results of Yen's use in Japan's exports justifies the model's conclusion and shows that commercial pressure and political events are the most important signals to form large appreciation expectation. Practical implications–This paper has important policy implications for Renminbi (RMB)'s exchange rate policy under the context of RMB internationalization, in order to promote RMB's use in exports; China should control the large appreciation expectation of RMB and the best way is to rigorously tackle trade deficit with US and European countries, and to eliminate the explicit appreciation signal. Originality/value–The paper analyzes the role of exchange rate appreciation in trade invoicing theoretically and empirically for the first time; and reasonably explains the development of currency invoicing in Japanese exports and contemporary Chinese exports, as well as having important policy implications for Chinese exchange rate policy.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://emeraldgrouppublishing.com/products/journals/journals.htm?id=cfri Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- P. Bacchetta & E. van Wincoop, 2002.
"A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade,"
DNB Staff Reports (discontinued)
75, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 295-319, December.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade," Working Papers 01.07, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2002. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 747, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 01.13, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Bacchetta, Philippe & Van Wincoop, Eric, 2002. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," Working Paper Series 0177, European Central Bank.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2002. "A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 9039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Roberto Rigobon, 2007.
"Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-through,"
NBER Working Papers
13432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shin-ichi Fukuda & Masanori Ono, 2006.
"On the Determinants of Exporters' Currency Pricing: History vs. Expectations,"
CIRJE-F-442, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Ono, Masanori, 2006. "On the determinants of exporters' currency pricing: History vs. expectations," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 548-568, December.
- Shin-ichi Fukuda & Masanori Ono, 2006. "On the Determinants of Exporters' Currency Pricing: History vs. Expectations," NBER Working Papers 12432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Goldberg, Linda S. & Tille, Cédric, 2008.
"Vehicle currency use in international trade,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 177-192, December.
- James E. Rauch, 1996.
"Networks versus Markets in International Trade,"
NBER Working Papers
5617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 529-538.
- Friberg, Richard & Wilander, Fredrik, 2008. "The currency denomination of exports -- A questionnaire study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 54-69, May.
- Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
- Friberg, Richard, 1998. "In which currency should exporters set their prices?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 59-76, June.
- Charles Engel, 2006.
"Equivalence Results for Optimal Pass-Through, Optimal Indexing to Exchange Rates, and Optimal Choice of Currency for Export Pricing,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 4(6), pages 1249-1260, December.
- Charles Engel, 2005. "Equivalence Results for Optimal Pass-Through, Optimal Indexing to Exchange Rates, and Optimal Choice of Currency for Export Pricing," NBER Working Papers 11209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mitsuhiro Fukao, 2003. "Capital account liberalisation: the Japanese experience and implications for China," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), China's capital account liberalisation: international perspective, volume 15, pages 35-57 Bank for International Settlements.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:cfripp:v:2:y:2012:i:3:p:231-245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Louise Lister)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.