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Forecasting exchange rates using genetic algorithms

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  • Marcos Alvarez-Diaz
  • Alberto Alvarez

Abstract

A novel approach is employed to investigate the predictability of weekly data on the euro/dollar, British pound/dollar, Deutsche mark/dollar, Japanese yen/dollar, French franc/dollar and Canadian dollar/dollar exchange rates. A functional search procedure based on the Darwinian theories of natural evolution and survival, called genetic algorithms (hereinafter GA), was used to find an analytical function that best approximates the time variability of the studied exchange rates. In all cases, the mathematical models found by the GA predict slightly better than the random walk model. The models are heavily dominated by a linear relationship with the most recent past value, while contributions from nonlinear terms to the total forecasting performance are rather small. In consequence, the results agree with previous works establishing explicitly that nonlinear nature of exchange rates cannot be exploited to substantially improve forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Alvarez-Diaz & Alberto Alvarez, 2003. "Forecasting exchange rates using genetic algorithms," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 319-322.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:6:p:319-322
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850210158250
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    Cited by:

    1. Hassanniakalager, Arman & Sermpinis, Georgios & Stasinakis, Charalampos, 2021. "Trading the foreign exchange market with technical analysis and Bayesian Statistics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 230-251.
    2. Jying-Nan Wang & Jiangze Du & Chonghui Jiang & Kin-Keung Lai, 2019. "Chinese Currency Exchange Rates Forecasting with EMD-Based Neural Network," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-15, October.
    3. Alvarez-Diaz, Marcos & Caballero Miguez, Gonzalo, 2008. "The quality of institutions: A genetic programming approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 161-169, January.

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