IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v35y2011i2p372-387.html

Investment intensity of currencies and the random walk hypothesis: Cross-currency evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Chuluun, Tuugi
  • Eun, Cheol S.
  • Kiliç, Rehim

Abstract

This paper studies the cross-currency and temporal variations in the random walk behavior in exchange rates. We characterize currencies with relatively large investment flows as investment intensive and conjecture that the more investment intensive a currency is, the closer its exchange rate adheres to random walk. Using 29 floating bilateral USD exchange rates, we find that the higher the investment intensity, the less likely it is to reject random walk and the smaller the deviation from random walk is. However, the effect of investment intensity is non-monotonic. Application of threshold models shows that after investment intensity reaches the estimated thresholds, the level of investment intensity has no further effect on the deviation from random walk. These findings help reconcile the previous conflicting results on the random walk in exchange rates by focusing on the effect of cross-currency and temporal variations in investment intensity.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuluun, Tuugi & Eun, Cheol S. & Kiliç, Rehim, 2011. "Investment intensity of currencies and the random walk hypothesis: Cross-currency evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 372-387, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:372-387
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(10)00322-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Michel Beine & Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2014. "The Impact of FX Central Bank Intervention in a Noise Trading Framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 6, pages 189-216, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:167-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 20-38, February.
    6. Liu, Christina Y & He, Jia, 1991. "A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 773-785, June.
    7. Yang, Jian & Su, Xiaojing & Kolari, James W., 2008. "Do Euro exchange rates follow a martingale? Some out-of-sample evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 729-740, May.
    8. Yuanchen Chang, 2004. "A re-examination of variance-ratio test of random walks in foreign exchange rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(9), pages 671-679.
    9. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Alternative Variance-Ratio Tests Using Ranks and Signs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-9, January.
    10. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    11. Paul Newbold & Toni Rayner & Neil Kellard & Christine Ennew, 1998. "Is the dollar/ECU exchange rate a random walk?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 553-558.
    12. Franc Klaassen, 2005. "Long Swings in Exchange Rates: Are They Really in the Data?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 87-95, January.
    13. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    14. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
    15. Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Opong, Kwaku K., 2005. "Some evidence of random walk behavior of Euro exchange rates using ranks and signs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1631-1643, July.
    16. Quinn, Dennis, 1997. "The Correlates of Change in International Financial Regulation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(3), pages 531-551, September.
    17. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    18. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    19. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Dennis P. Quinn & A. Maria Toyoda, 2008. "Does Capital Account Liberalization Lead to Growth?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1403-1449, May.
    21. Erdos, Péter & Ormos, Mihály, 2010. "Random walk theory and the weak-form efficiency of the US art auction prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1062-1076, May.
    22. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    23. Chortareas, Georgios & Kapetanios, George, 2009. "Getting PPP right: Identifying mean-reverting real exchange rates in panels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-404, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fahad Almudhaf, 2014. "Testing for random walk behaviour in CIVETS exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 60-63, January.
    2. Stosic, Darko & Stosic, Dusan & Ludermir, Teresa & de Oliveira, Wilson & Stosic, Tatijana, 2016. "Foreign exchange rate entropy evolution during financial crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 449(C), pages 233-239.
    3. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
    4. Kuo, Chii-Shyan & Li, Ming-Yuan Leon & Yu, Shang-En, 2013. "Non-uniform effects of CEO equity-based compensation on firm performance – An application of a panel threshold regression model," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 203-214.
    5. Leon Li & Mark J. Holmes & Bong Soo Lee, 2016. "The asymmetric relationship between executive earnings management and compensation: a panel threshold regression approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(57), pages 5525-5545, December.
    6. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2011. "Stock return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from century-long U.S. data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 868-879.
    7. Sinem Hacıoğlu Hoke & George Kapetanios, 2021. "Common correlated effect cross‐sectional dependence corrections for nonlinear conditional mean panel models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 125-150, January.
    8. Li, Leon & Chen, Carl R., 2016. "Analysts' forecast dispersion and stock returns: a panel threshold regression analysis based on conditional limited market participation hypothesis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 100-107.
    9. Katusiime, Lorna & Shamsuddin, Abul & Agbola, Frank W., 2015. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and profitability of trading rules: Evidence from a developing country," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 315-332.
    10. Bubák, Vít & Kocenda, Evzen & Zikes, Filip, 2011. "Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2829-2841, November.
    11. Sashikanta Khuntia & J. K. Pattanayak, 2020. "Evolving Efficiency of Exchange Rate Movement: An Evidence from Indian Foreign Exchange Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 956-969, August.
    12. Hellström, Jörgen & Liu, Yuna & Sjögren, Tomas, 2016. "Stock exchange mergers and weak-form information efficiency: Evidence from the OMX Nordic and Baltic consolidation," Umeå Economic Studies 923, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    13. Ntim, Collins G. & English, John & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Wang, Yan, 2015. "On the efficiency of the global gold markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 218-236.
    14. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
    2. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Revisiting the weak-form efficiency of the EUR/CHF exchange rate market: Evidence from episodes of different Swiss franc regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 734-746.
    3. Fahad Almudhaf, 2014. "Testing for random walk behaviour in CIVETS exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 60-63, January.
    4. Amelie Charles & Olivier Darne, 2009. "Testing for Random Walk Behavior in Euro Exchange Rates," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 119, pages 25-45.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Sainan Jin, 2014. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 537-554, October.
    6. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2025. "Wine market efficiency: Is glass half full or half empty?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    7. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Nadir Ocal, 2014. "Financial Integration and Growth: A Nonlinear Panel Data Analysis," ERC Working Papers 1415, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2014.
    8. Adeyeye Patrick Olufemi & Aluko Olufemi Adewale & Migiro Stephen Oseko, 2017. "Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Presence of Structural Break: A Linear and Non-Linear Testing Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(4), pages 122-131.
    9. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2018. "On The Sources Of Uncertainty In Exchange Rate Predictability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 329-357, February.
    10. Navaz Naghavi & Muhammad Shujaat Mubarik & Devinder Kaur, 2018. "Financial Liberalization And Stock Market Efficiency: Measuring The Threshold Effects Of Governance," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(04), pages 1-24, December.
    11. Yang, Jian & Su, Xiaojing & Kolari, James W., 2008. "Do Euro exchange rates follow a martingale? Some out-of-sample evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 729-740, May.
    12. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009. "Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(1), pages 1-12, April.
    13. Diniz-Maganini, Natalia & Rasheed, Abdul A. & Sheng, Hsia Hua, 2023. "Price efficiency of the foreign exchange rates of BRICS countries: A comparative analysis," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    14. Eduardo José Araújo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2008. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Relationship between the Random Walk Hypothesis and Official Interventions," Working Papers Series 173, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Amat, Christophe & Michalski, Tomasz & Stoltz, Gilles, 2018. "Fundamentals and exchange rate forecastability with simple machine learning methods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-24.
    16. Aye, Goodness C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "The efficiency of the art market: Evidence from variance ratio tests, linear and nonlinear fractional integration approaches," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 283-294.
    17. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2016. "Exchange rate predictability in a changing world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-24.
    18. Hsiu-Hsin Ko, 2016. "Exchange Rate Predictability in Finite Samples," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 361-378, September.
    19. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 18-26.
    20. repec:idn:journl:v:1:y:2019:i:sp1:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Chen, Jinzhao & Quang, Thérèse, 2014. "The impact of international financial integration on economic growth: New evidence on threshold effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 475-489.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:372-387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.