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Long-run equilibrium exchange rate in Latin America and Asia: a comparison using cointegrated vector

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  • Cuiabano, Simone

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to analyze the long-run equilibrium exchange rate in Latin America and Asia countries using the monetary model described in Obstfeld and Rogoff (1996) to evaluate the exchange rate gap between the regions. I use panel cointegration tests to verify the existence of panel cointegration for the countries. I estimate the coefficients of the long-run exchange rate function using the dynamic OLS (DOLS) from a balanced panel of 14 countries and quarterly observations that span from 1999 to 2015. The estimation shows the impact of monetary aggregates on the exchange rate. In addition, it points the exchange rate gap between Latin America and Asia. For example, long run equilibrium exchange rate between Latin America and Asia means 4% depreciation in this last region’s currency.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuiabano, Simone, 2017. "Long-run equilibrium exchange rate in Latin America and Asia: a comparison using cointegrated vector," TSE Working Papers 17-837, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:31959
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Felício, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira & Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case," Insper Working Papers wpe_318, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    2. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2013. "Taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1008-1031.
    3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    4. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    6. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    7. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1999. "Monetary Models of Dollar/Yen/Euro Nominal Exchange Rates: Dead or Undead?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 655-659, November.
    8. Simone Cuiabano & Jose Divino, 2010. "Exchange Rate Determination: An Application of a Monetary Model for Brazil," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 16(4), pages 345-357, November.
    9. Moura, Marcelo L. , & Lima, Adauto R. S. & Mendonça, Rodrigo M., 2008. "Exchange Rate and Fundamentals: The Case of Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_114, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    10. Rossi Junior, Jose Luiz & Felicio, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira, 2014. "Common Factors and the Exchange Rate: Results From the Brazilian Case," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(1), April.
    11. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    12. Ronald Macdonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1993. "The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Rational Expectations, Long-Run Equilibrium, and Forecasting," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 89-107, March.
    13. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate determination; monetary model; cointegration; panel;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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