Contagion Effects, Informational Effects, and Economic Fundamentals: An Analysis of Exchange Rate Dynamics during the Asian Currency Crisis
This paper develops an empirical framework to determine if the Asian currency crisis was contagious, and if so, whether the contagion was warranted or unwarranted. By applying a monetary-portfolio model to monthly data for 1991 - 1998, our results show that short-run variations in exchange rates were largely unexplained by macroeconomic fundamentals. The regime shift in our model suggests that informational effects had a major impact. For example, the collapse of the Thai baht released information for economic agents to reassess the stability of other currencies. Moreover, there were excessive correlations between exchange rates, even after controlling for the influence of fundamentals. All these indicate that the Asian currency crisis was contagious. However, further analysis of the residuals and classification of economies based on cluster analysis together indicate that the Thai baht crisis spread to economies with similar economic conditions. This finding supports the hypothesis of warranted contagion, i.e. the spread of a crisis is not entirely random and dependent on fundamentals.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 55th Floor , Two International Finance Centre , 8 Finance Street , Central, Hong Kong|
Phone: (852)2878 1978
Fax: (852)2878 7006
Web page: http://www.hkimr.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
- Walter B. Wriston, 1998. "Dumb Networks and Smart Capital," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 17(3), Winter.
- Robert Dekle & Cheng Hsiao & Siyan Wang, 1999. "Interest rate stabilization of exchange rates and contagion in the Asian crisis countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
- Meng, Q. & Velasco, A., 1999.
"Can Capital Mobility be Destabilizing?,"
99-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
- Somanath, V. S., 1986. "Efficient exchange rate forecasts: Lagged models better than the random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 195-220, June.
- Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1996.
"Why Clashes Between Internal and External Stability Goals End in Currency Crises, 1797-1994,"
NBER Working Papers
5710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Bordo & Anna Schwartz, 1996. "Why clashes between internal and external stability goals end in currency crises, 1797–1994," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 437-468, March.
- Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Anna J. Schwartz, 1998. "International Financial Crises: Myths and Realities," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 17(3), pages 251-256, Winter.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996.
"Contagious Currency Crises,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1997. "On Identifying the Core of EMU: An Exploration of Some Empirical Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Aaron Tornell, 1999.
"Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1868, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Aaron Tornell, 1999. "Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises," NBER Working Papers 7139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989.
"Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Allan Drazen, 1999.
"Political Contagion in Currency Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
7211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul R. Milgrom, 1978. "Rational Expectations," Discussion Papers 406, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- George Tavlas, 1996. "Currency crises: Introduction," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 431-436, March.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- A. W. Coats, 1996. "Introduction," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 28(5), pages 3-11, Supplemen.
- Kruger, Mark & Osakwe, Patrick N. & Page, Jennifer, 1998. "Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Staff Working Papers 98-10, Bank of Canada.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements,"
NBER Working Papers
7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995.
"Contagious speculative attacks,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
- Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
- Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1999.
"Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages F660-72, November.
- Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility Without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 1944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:022000. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HKIMR)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.