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The trend of the real exchange rate overvaluation in open emerging economies: the case of Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • André Nassif

    () (Universidade Federal Fluminense e BNDES)

  • Carmem Feijó

    () (Universidade Federal Fluminense)

  • Eliane Araújo

    () (Universidade Estadual de Maringá)

Abstract

We present a Structuralist-Keynesian theoretical approach on the determining factors of the real exchange rate for open emerging economies. Instead of macroeconomic fundamentals, the long-term trend of the real exchange rate level is better determined not only by structural forces and long-term economic policies, but also by both short-term macroeconomic policies and their indirect effects on other short-term economic variables. In our theoretical model, the actual real exchange rate is broken down into long-term structural and short-term components, and both of which may be responsible for deviations of that actual variable from its long-term trend level. The econometric model for the Brazilian economy in the 1999-2010 period shows that the terms of trade and the short-term interest rate differential are the most significant variables that explain the long-term trend of the real exchange rate overvaluation in Brazil. We also propose an index of overvaluation and an original definition of a long-term “optimal” real exchange rate for open emerging economies. The econometric results show two basic conclusions: first the Brazilian currency was persistently overvalued throughout almost all of the period under analysis; and second, the long-term “optimal” real exchange rate was reached in 2004. In January 2011, the average nominal exchange rate should be around 2.91 Brazilian reais per US dollar for reaching that “optimal” level, against an observed average nominal exchange rate of 1.67 Brazilian reais per US dollar. According to this estimation, in January 2011, the real overvaluation of the Brazilian currency in relation to the long-term ¨optimal¨ level was around 74 per cent. These findings lead us to suggest in the conclusion that a mix of policy instruments should be used in order to reverse the overvaluation trend of the Brazilian real exchange rate, including a target for reaching the “optimal” real exchange rate in the medium and the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • André Nassif & Carmem Feijó & Eliane Araújo, 2011. "The trend of the real exchange rate overvaluation in open emerging economies: the case of Brazil," Working Papers 0111, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:fup:wpaper:0111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bilal KARGI, 2014. "Time Series Analysis about the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Exchange Rate in Turkish Economy," Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 7(2), pages 123-133, December.
    2. Carolina Troncoso Baltar & Celio Hiratuka & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2014. "Investment in the Brazilian manufacturing industry and the real exchange rate: An investigation using sectoral-level panel data," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1408, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
    3. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michel, 2011. "The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-17, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    4. Parantap Basu & Yoseph Getachew, 2017. "Redistributive Innovation Policy, Inequality and Efficiency," CEGAP Working Papers 2017_02, Durham University Business School.
    5. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2017. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 201769, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Eva Yamila Catela & Mario Cimoli & Gabriel Porcile, 2015. "Productivity and Structural Heterogeneity in the Brazilian Manufacturing Sector: Trends and Determinants," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 232-252, June.
    7. Christian K. Tipoy & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Mulatu F. Zerihun, 2016. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Misalignments: The Case of Homogenous Emerging Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(4), pages 3-25, October-D.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real exchange rate; real overvaluation; economic policy dilemmas; Brazil;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other

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