The trend of the real exchange rate overvaluation in open emerging economies: the case of Brazil
We present a Structuralist-Keynesian theoretical approach on the determining factors of the real exchange rate for open emerging economies. Instead of macroeconomic fundamentals, the long-term trend of the real exchange rate level is better determined not only by structural forces and long-term economic policies, but also by both short-term macroeconomic policies and their indirect effects on other short-term economic variables. In our theoretical model, the actual real exchange rate is broken down into long-term structural and short-term components, and both of which may be responsible for deviations of that actual variable from its long-term trend level. The econometric model for the Brazilian economy in the 1999-2010 period shows that the terms of trade and the short-term interest rate differential are the most significant variables that explain the long-term trend of the real exchange rate overvaluation in Brazil. We also propose an index of overvaluation and an original definition of a long-term “optimal” real exchange rate for open emerging economies. The econometric results show two basic conclusions: first the Brazilian currency was persistently overvalued throughout almost all of the period under analysis; and second, the long-term “optimal” real exchange rate was reached in 2004. In January 2011, the average nominal exchange rate should be around 2.91 Brazilian reais per US dollar for reaching that “optimal” level, against an observed average nominal exchange rate of 1.67 Brazilian reais per US dollar. According to this estimation, in January 2011, the real overvaluation of the Brazilian currency in relation to the long-term ¨optimal¨ level was around 74 per cent. These findings lead us to suggest in the conclusion that a mix of policy instruments should be used in order to reverse the overvaluation trend of the Brazilian real exchange rate, including a target for reaching the “optimal” real exchange rate in the medium and the long-run.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Creation Date corresponds to the year in which the paper was published on the Department of Economics website. The paper may have been written a small number of months before its publication date.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.economiaetecnologia.ufpr.br/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992.
"Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America; The Role of External Factors,"
IMF Working Papers
92/62, International Monetary Fund.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000.
"Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?,"
Research Department Publications
4205, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Aizenman, Joshua & D. Chinn, Menzie & Ito, Hiro, 2009.
"Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma,"
ADB Economics Working Paper Series
180, Asian Development Bank.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 290-320, September.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Chen, Menzie & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3897k2ss, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2010. "Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma," NBER Working Papers 15876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots,"
3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paulo Gala, 2008. "Real exchange rate levels and economic development: theoretical analysis and econometric evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 273-288, March.
- Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited; The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?," IMF Working Papers 10/58, International Monetary Fund.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000.
"Fear of Floating,"
NBER Working Papers
7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah & Rudrani Bhattacharya, 2011.
"Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market Setting,"
IMF Working Papers
11/5, International Monetary Fund.
- Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2011. "Monetary policy transmission in an emerging market setting," Working Papers 11/78, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
- Sebastian Edwards & Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2008. "Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa05-1, June.
- Pereira, Luiz Carlos Bresser & Gala, Paulo Sérgio de Oliveira Simões, 2010. "Macroeconomia estruturalista do desenvolvimento," Textos para discussão 275, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521144537 is not listed on IDEAS
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Carlos Eduardo Schönerward da Silva & Matías Vernengo, 2008.
"The Decline of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil: Explaining the ‘Fear of Floating’,"
Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah
2008_11, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
- Carlos Eduardo Schönerwald da Silva & Matías Vernengo, 2008. "The Decline of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil: Explaining the "Fear of Floating"," International Journal of Political Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 37(4), pages 64-79, December.
- John Harvey, 2005. "Modeling Interest Rate Parity: A System Dynamics Approach," Working Papers 200502, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.
- Lone Christiansen & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Thierry Tressel, 2010.
"External Balance in Low-Income Countries,"
in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 265-322
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Enrique Alberola, 2003.
"Misalignment, liabilities dollarization and exchange rate adjustment in Latin America,"
Banco de Espa�a Working Papers
0309, Banco de Espa�a.
- Enrique Alberola, 2005. "Misalignment, Liabilities Dollarization And Exchange Rate Adjustment In Latin America," International Finance 0507005, EconWPA.
- Sebastian Edwards & Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2008. "Introduction to "Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets"," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 1-8 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
- Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl Friedrich Habermeier & Marcos Chamon & Mahvash Saeed Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
- Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Paulo Gala, 2008. "Foreign savings, insufficiency of demand, and low growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 315-334, April.
- Coakley, Jerry & Flood, Robert P. & Fuertes, Ana M. & Taylor, Mark P., 2005. "Purchasing power parity and the theory of general relativity: the first tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 293-316, March.
- Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fup:wpaper:0111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Luciano Nakabashi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.