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The Decline of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil: Explaining the "Fear of Floating"

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  • Carlos da Silva
  • Matías Vernengo

Abstract

This paper argues that the pass-through in Brazil has fallen compared with estimates in other studies done for earlier time periods, and remains low. Whereas pass-through effects where high and close to 1 in the high-inflation period, they seem to have fallen to around 0.2 after the Real Plan stabilization, a number that is similar to the Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) period of the 1950s and 1960s. Conventional results suggest that low and stable inflation environments lead to low levels of exchange rate pass-through and thus contribute to weakening the ‘fear of floating’ phenomenon experienced by some developing countries. In spite of lower pass-through effects, the Brazilian Central Bank has maintained high interest rates in order to control the exchange rate. This paper suggests that ‘fear of inflation’ provides justification for the central bank's persistent ‘fear of floating.’

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos da Silva & Matías Vernengo, 2008. "The Decline of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil: Explaining the "Fear of Floating"," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 64-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:ijpoec:v:37:y:2008:i:4:p:64-79
    DOI: 10.2753/IJP0891-1916370403
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    Cited by:

    1. Thereza Balliester Reis, 2018. "Why Are Policy Real Interest Rates So High in Brazil? An Analysis of the Determinants of the Central Bank of Brazil’s Real Interest Rate," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 178-198, April.
    2. André Nassif & Carmem Feijó & Marco Antônio Silveira De Almeida, 2011. "Why Does Real Exchange Rate Overvalue Inbrazil? Theoretical Determinants, Empirical Evidence And Economicpolicy Dilemmas," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 237, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Ferreira, Caio Ferrari, 2020. "Does monetary policy credibility mitigate the fear of floating?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 76-87.
    4. André Nassif & Carmem Feijó & Eliane Araújo, 2011. "The trend of the real exchange rate overvaluation in open emerging economies: the case of Brazil," Working Papers 0111, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    5. Carmem Aparecida Feijo & Luiz Fernando Cerqueira, 2013. "Econometric Evidence on the Determinants of the Mark Up of Industrial Brazilian Firms in the 1990s," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 14(1a), pages .91-119.
    6. Abeles, Martín & Cherkasky, Martín, 2019. "Monetary regimes and labour institutions: an alternative interpretation of the downward trend in exchange-rate passthrough in peripheral countries," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.

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