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A New Modeling Approach To Help Address The Trump Tariffs

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  • Horioka, Charles Yuji
  • Ford, Nicholas

Abstract

In this paper, we show that the existing models and descriptions of the transfer of capital between countries that are provided in international economics are inadequate because they fail to explain the causes of, or the consequences of, persistent trade imbalances and because the assumption that there is a world interest rate, r* at which all countries can theoretically lend or borrow is extremely misleading. Instead, we argue that a more fruitful modeling approach is to regard the world as consisting of a number of regions, each of which has a particular rate of return on capital, which is a function of the local marginal product of capital (MPK). We demonstrate that such a modeling approach can provide some additional insights into who gains and loses from persistent trade deficits and how this might be affected by the Trump Administration's tariff policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Horioka, Charles Yuji & Ford, Nicholas, 2025. "A New Modeling Approach To Help Address The Trump Tariffs," AGI Working Paper Series 2025-21, Asian Growth Research Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000257
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Young Chung & William J. Crowder, 2004. "Why Are Real Interest Rates Not Equalized Internationally?," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 441-458, October.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    4. S. Young Chung & William J. Crowder, 2004. "Why Are Real Interest Rates Not Equalized Internationally?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(2), pages 441-458, October.
    5. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. "Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-1357, December.
    6. William H. Branson & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1991. "International Adjustment with Wage Rigidity," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 13-44, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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