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Peut-on expliquer les mouvements du dollar ?

  • Patrick Artus
  • Éric Bleuze
  • François Lecointe
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    [fre] Peut-on expliquer les mouvements du dollar ? Après avoir analysé un modèle théorique, avec anticipations rationnelles, pour le taux de change du dollar qui fait jouer un rôle aux interventions des Banques centrales, à la façon dont elles fixent les taux d'intérêt, ainsi qu'à l'évolution de la dette extérieure des États-Unis, on examine des résultats économétriques portant sur les taux d'intérêt et le change. On peut alors avoir une idée du fonctionnement du marché des changes, et du rôle respectif des anticipations et des caractéristiques des choix de portefeuille sur l'évolution du cours du dollar. [eng] In the exchange rate of the dollar ? We analyse a theoretical model with rational expectations, for the exchange rate of the dollar, when central banks interventions, the way they determine exchange rates and the evolution of the foreign debt of the United States play a central role. Econometric results concerning interest rates and the exchange rate permit to gain some insight on the functionning of the exchange market and on the relative effects of expectations and portfolio choices on the evolution of the dollar.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

    Volume (Year): 41 (1990)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 1027-1050

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1990_num_41_6_409251
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1990.409251
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    1. Kawai, Masahiro, 1985. "Exchange Rates, the Current Account and Monetary-Fiscal Policies in the Short Run and in the Long Run," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 391-425, September.
    2. Papell, D.H., 1988. "Expectations And Exchange Rate Dynamics After A Decade Of Floating," Papers 9, Houston - Department of Economics.
    3. Bennett T. McCallum, 1980. "Price Level Determinacy with an Interest Rate Policy Rule and Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1983. "Exchange rate dynamics with sluggish prices under alternative price- adjustment rules," International Finance Discussion Papers 223, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Sheen, Jeffrey, 1989. "Modelling the floating Australian dollar: Can the random walk be encompassed by a model using a permanent decomposition of money and output?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 253-276, June.
    7. Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. " On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-35, September.
    8. Hans Genberg & Alexander K. Swoboda, 1989. "Policy and Current Account Determination under Floating Exchange Rates," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 1-30, March.
    9. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    10. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
    11. Laskar, Daniel, 1989. "Mobilité du capital et liquidité internationale en systèmes de change fixe alernatifs," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8904, CEPREMAP.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld, 1988. "The Effectiveness of Foreign-Exchange Intervention: Recent Experience," NBER Working Papers 2796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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