Peut-on expliquer les mouvements du dollar ?
[fre] Peut-on expliquer les mouvements du dollar ? Après avoir analysé un modèle théorique, avec anticipations rationnelles, pour le taux de change du dollar qui fait jouer un rôle aux interventions des Banques centrales, à la façon dont elles fixent les taux d'intérêt, ainsi qu'à l'évolution de la dette extérieure des États-Unis, on examine des résultats économétriques portant sur les taux d'intérêt et le change. On peut alors avoir une idée du fonctionnement du marché des changes, et du rôle respectif des anticipations et des caractéristiques des choix de portefeuille sur l'évolution du cours du dollar. [eng] In the exchange rate of the dollar ? We analyse a theoretical model with rational expectations, for the exchange rate of the dollar, when central banks interventions, the way they determine exchange rates and the evolution of the foreign debt of the United States play a central role. Econometric results concerning interest rates and the exchange rate permit to gain some insight on the functionning of the exchange market and on the relative effects of expectations and portfolio choices on the evolution of the dollar.
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Volume (Year): 41 (1990)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
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