IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecaffa/v43y2023i2p201-210.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Debt and currency value during COVID‐19 in the Global South

Author

Listed:
  • Behrooz Gharleghi

Abstract

The aim of this article is to examine debt and currency vulnerability during economic turbulence in the Global South. A panel data analysis is performed on a panel of 25 economies consisting of nine developed and 16 developing countries with a focus on public and private debt. The empirical findings reveal that only public debt build‐up has an adverse effect on currency value. There is no evidence of a significant impact of recession periods on currency value for both private and public debt estimations. I also found that private debt build‐up can be more harmful than public debt in developing countries. In addition, both public and private debt have increased as percentages of GDP during COVID‐19.

Suggested Citation

  • Behrooz Gharleghi, 2023. "Debt and currency value during COVID‐19 in the Global South," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 201-210, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecaffa:v:43:y:2023:i:2:p:201-210
    DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12581
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12581
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecaf.12581?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Axel Dreher & Bernhard Herz & Volker Karb, 2006. "Is there a causal link between currency and debt crises?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 305-325.
    2. Donghyun Park & Arief Ramayandi & Shu Tian, 2022. "Debt Buildup and Currency Vulnerability: Evidence from Global Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(7), pages 2017-2035, May.
    3. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    4. Forrest Capie & Geoffrey Wood, 2021. "Debt, deficits, and inflation," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 38-50, February.
    5. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-17.
    6. Ajayi, Richard A. & Choi, Jongmoo Jay, 1993. "The effect of foreign debt on currency values," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 45(3-4), pages 331-340.
    7. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    8. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    9. Pasquale Della Corte & Steven J. Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2016. "Currency Premia and Global Imbalances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 2161-2193.
    10. Jacob A. Frenkel, 1977. "A Monetary Approach To The Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects And Empirical Evidence," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jan Herin & Assar Lindbeck & Johan Myhrman (ed.), Flexible Exchange Rates and Stabilization Policy, pages 68-92, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Ainur Sabyr & Behrooz Gharleghi & Benjamin Chan Yin Fah, 2015. "Factors Determining the Globalization of Renminbi," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(3), pages 11-18, March.
    12. Behrooz Gharleghi & Abu Hassan Shaari & Najla Shafighi, 2014. "Predicting exchange rates using a novel “cointegration based neuro-fuzzy system”," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 137, pages 88-103.
    13. repec:cii:cepiei:2014-q1-137-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hassan, Ramin & Loualiche, Erik & Pecora, Alexandre R. & Ward, Colin, 2023. "International trade and the risk in bilateral exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    2. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2020. "Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 279-332.
    3. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Oleg Itskhoki, 2021. "The Story of the Real Exchange Rate," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 423-455, August.
    5. Rubaszek, Michał & Beckmann, Joscha & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Kwas, Marek, 2022. "Boosting carry with equilibrium exchange rate estimates," Working Paper Series 2731, European Central Bank.
    6. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    7. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Rubaszek, Michał, 2023. "How many fundamentals should we include in the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    8. Tarek A. Hassan & Tony Zhang, 2021. "The Economics of Currency Risk," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 281-307, August.
    9. Cavallino, Paolo & Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "The open-economy ELB: Contractionary monetary easing and the trilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    10. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Colacito, Riccardo & Riddiough, Steven J. & Sarno, Lucio, 2020. "Business cycles and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 659-678.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    13. Aleksandra Babii, 2019. "Exchange Rates Co-movement and International Trade," 2019 Meeting Papers 1150, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Yang Liu & Mariano Croce & Ivan Shaliastovich & Ric Colacito, 2016. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," 2016 Meeting Papers 135, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate & Yan, Cheng, 2019. "Uncovered equity “disparity” in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Cezar, Rafael & Monnet, Eric, 2023. "Capital controls and foreign reserves against external shocks: Combined or alone?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    17. Özmen, M. Utku & Yılmaz, Erdal, 2017. "Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential, risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 173-188.
    18. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Candian, Giacomo, 2019. "Information frictions and real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 189-205.
    20. Liu, De-Chih & Chang, Yu-Chien, 2022. "Systematic variations in exchange rate returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 569-583.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecaffa:v:43:y:2023:i:2:p:201-210. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0265-0665 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.