IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecaffa/v43y2023i2p201-210.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Debt and currency value during COVID‐19 in the Global South

Author

Listed:
  • Behrooz Gharleghi

Abstract

The aim of this article is to examine debt and currency vulnerability during economic turbulence in the Global South. A panel data analysis is performed on a panel of 25 economies consisting of nine developed and 16 developing countries with a focus on public and private debt. The empirical findings reveal that only public debt build‐up has an adverse effect on currency value. There is no evidence of a significant impact of recession periods on currency value for both private and public debt estimations. I also found that private debt build‐up can be more harmful than public debt in developing countries. In addition, both public and private debt have increased as percentages of GDP during COVID‐19.

Suggested Citation

  • Behrooz Gharleghi, 2023. "Debt and currency value during COVID‐19 in the Global South," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 201-210, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecaffa:v:43:y:2023:i:2:p:201-210
    DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12581
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12581
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecaf.12581?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Axel Dreher & Bernhard Herz & Volker Karb, 2006. "Is there a causal link between currency and debt crises?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 305-325.
    2. Jacob A. Frenkel, 1977. "A Monetary Approach To The Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects And Empirical Evidence," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jan Herin & Assar Lindbeck & Johan Myhrman (ed.), Flexible Exchange Rates and Stabilization Policy, pages 68-92, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-17.
    4. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    5. Pasquale Della Corte & Steven J. Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2016. "Currency Premia and Global Imbalances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 2161-2193.
    6. Donghyun Park & Arief Ramayandi & Shu Tian, 2022. "Debt Buildup and Currency Vulnerability: Evidence from Global Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(7), pages 2017-2035, May.
    7. Ainur Sabyr & Behrooz Gharleghi & Benjamin Chan Yin Fah, 2015. "Factors Determining the Globalization of Renminbi," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(3), pages 11-18, March.
    8. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    9. Forrest Capie & Geoffrey Wood, 2021. "Debt, deficits, and inflation," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 38-50, February.
    10. Gunay, Samet, 2021. "Comparing COVID-19 with the GFC: A shockwave analysis of currency markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    11. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    12. Ajayi, Richard A. & Choi, Jongmoo Jay, 1993. "The effect of foreign debt on currency values," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 45(3-4), pages 331-340.
    13. Behrooz Gharleghi & Abu Hassan Shaari & Najla Shafighi, 2014. "Predicting exchange rates using a novel “cointegration based neuro-fuzzy system”," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 137, pages 88-103.
    14. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    15. repec:cii:cepiei:2014-q1-137-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hassan, Ramin & Loualiche, Erik & Pecora, Alexandre R. & Ward, Colin, 2023. "International trade and the risk in bilateral exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    2. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2020. "Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 279-332.
    3. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Oleg Itskhoki, 2021. "The Story of the Real Exchange Rate," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 423-455, August.
    5. Tarek A. Hassan & Tony Zhang, 2021. "The Economics of Currency Risk," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 281-307, August.
    6. Michał Rubaszek & Joscha Beckmann & Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Marek Kwas, 2025. "Boosting Carry with Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 1281-1307, September.
    7. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2025. "Mussa Puzzle Redux," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(1), pages 1-39, January.
    8. Ma, Zhenyu & Wang, Junbo & Wang, Ning & Xiao, Zehua, 2024. "US monetary policy and real exchange rate dynamics: the role of exchange rate arrangements and capital controls," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    9. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Rubaszek, Michał, 2023. "How many fundamentals should we include in the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    10. Cavallino, Paolo & Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "The open-economy ELB: Contractionary monetary easing and the trilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    11. Aleksandra Babii, 2019. "Exchange Rates Co-movement and International Trade," 2019 Meeting Papers 1150, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate & Yan, Cheng, 2019. "Uncovered equity “disparity” in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Cezar, Rafael & Monnet, Eric, 2023. "Capital controls and foreign reserves against external shocks: Combined or alone?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. Lian An & Mark A. Wynne & Ren Zhang, 2020. "Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on a Narrative Sign Approach," Globalization Institute Working Papers 379, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Davis, J. Scott & Fujiwara, Ippei & Huang, Kevin X.D. & Wang, Jiao, 2021. "Foreign exchange reserves as a tool for capital account management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 473-488.
    16. Florian Huber & Daniel Kaufmann, 2020. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(348), pages 1016-1036, October.
    17. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Liu, De-Chih & Chang, Yu-Chien, 2022. "Systematic variations in exchange rate returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 569-583.
    19. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2018. "Liquidity and exchange rate volatility," Working Papers halshs-01708633, HAL.
    20. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 0. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-27.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecaffa:v:43:y:2023:i:2:p:201-210. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0265-0665 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.