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Comparing COVID-19 with the GFC: A shockwave analysis of currency markets

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  • Gunay, Samet

Abstract

I analyze the shockwave effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on currency markets, with a comparison to the global financial crisis (GFC), employing Kapetanios m-break unit root test, investigations of standalone risk measures—downside variance, upside risk, volatility skewness, Gaussian Value at Risk (VaR), historical VaR, modified VaR—and Diebold–Yilmaz volatility spillover analysis. Standalone risk analysis shows that the turmoil in the initial months of COVID-19 was not as severe as that in the GFC. However, examination of co-movements and volatility spillovers illustrates a different scenario. According to the results of the static connectedness measure of Diebold–Yilmaz, the shockwave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the total volatility spillover is about eight times greater than that of the GFC. Among standalone risk measures, the results closest to this finding are obtained from volatility skewness analysis. Additionally, of six foreign exchange rates, the Brazilian real and Turkish lira are the currencies experiencing the greatest increase in received volatility during the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. These findings suggest the severe effect of crises on emerging financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunay, Samet, 2021. "Comparing COVID-19 with the GFC: A shockwave analysis of currency markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:56:y:2021:i:c:s0275531920309855
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101377
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coronavirus; COVID-19 pandemic; Global financial crisis; Foreign exchange markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • B16 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Quantitative and Mathematical
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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