IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2017-02-66.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Continuous Time: New Evidence from Martingale Regression

Author

Listed:
  • Zi-Yi Guo

    (Corporate Model Risk Management Group, Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., 301 S College St, Charlotte, NC 28202, USA.)

Abstract

The so-called foreign exchange rate determination puzzle has been a hard topic in international finance for several decades. The puzzle illustrates the weak explanatory power of macroeconomic-based models of the nominal exchange rate fluctuations. We investigate the foreign exchange rate determination puzzle in a continuous-time framework. Following the market microstructure literature, a simple model of the determination of foreign exchange rates is developed, and the model concludes a result which is essentially a continuous-time version of the equation in Evans and Lyons (2002a). For estimation, we take an advantage of a newly-developed econometric tool based on a time change from calendar to volatility time. With this new estimation methodology, our results indicate that the effect of order flow on exchange rate is significantly improved compared with the traditional econometric tools.

Suggested Citation

  • Zi-Yi Guo, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Continuous Time: New Evidence from Martingale Regression," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 507-512.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-02-66
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/4190/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/4190/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Martin D. D. Evans, 2002. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2405-2447, December.
    3. Martin D. D. Evans, 2017. "Order Flows and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 15, pages 599-643, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
    5. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-651.
    6. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 14, pages 547-596, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June.
    8. Jun Yu & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "A Gaussian approach for continuous time models of the short-term interest rate," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 1-3.
    9. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Time-Varying Liquidity in Foreign Exchange," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 8, pages 325-361, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Yoosoon Chang & Yongok Choi & Hwagyun Kim & Joon Y. Park, 2016. "Evaluating factor pricing models using high‐frequency panels," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(3), pages 889-933, November.
    11. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    12. Paolo Vitale, 2007. "A Guided Tour Of The Market Microstructure Approach To Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 903-934, December.
    13. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    14. Jeong, Daehee & Kim, Hwagyun & Park, Joon Y., 2015. "Does ambiguity matter? Estimating asset pricing models with a multiple-priors recursive utility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 361-382.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Jambaldorj Bolortuya, 2019. "Inflation Targeting and the Pass-through Effect in Mongolia," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(2), pages 57-71, June.
    2. Firouzi, Shahrokh & Wang, Xiangning, 2019. "A comparative study of exchange rates and order flow based on wavelet transform coherence and cross wavelet transform," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 42-56.
    3. Fredy Gamboa-Estrada, 2023. "The Role of Foreign Investors and Local Agents in the Derivatives Market and their Impact on the Exchange Rate in Colombia: A Wavelet Analysis," IHEID Working Papers 12-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Jaime Alberto Gómez Vilchis & Federico Hernández Álvarez & Luis Ignacio Román de la Sancha, 2021. "Autómata Evolutivo (AE) para el mercado accionario usando Martingalas y un Algoritmo Genético," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, Octubre -.
    5. repec:ajn:jobafd:2017:p:36-41 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    2. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Martingale Regressions for a Continuous Time Model of Exchange Rates," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 40-45.
    3. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2011. "Asymmetric Price Impacts of Order Flow on Exchange Rate Dynamics," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    6. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
    7. Cerrato, Mario & Kim, Hyunsok & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Microstructure order flow: statistical and economic evaluation of nonlinear forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 40-52.
    8. Giancarlo Corsetti & Romain Lafarguette & Arnaud Mehl, 2019. "Fast Trading and the Virtue of Entropy: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Discussion Papers 1914, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    9. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2013. "Is exchange rate – Customer order flow relationship linear? Evidence from the Hungarian FX market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 20-35.
    10. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
    11. Rita Biswas & Louis R. Piccotti & Ben Z. Schreiber, 2021. "Differential risk premiums and the UIP puzzle," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(1), pages 139-167, March.
    12. Martin Evans and Dagfinn Rime, 2010. "Micro Approaches to foreign Exchange Determination," Working Papers gueconwpa~10-10-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    13. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 14, pages 547-596, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Fratzscher, Marcel & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2015. "The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-21.
    15. Park, Yang-Ho, 2022. "Informed trading in foreign exchange futures: Payroll news timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    16. Abolaji Daniel Anifowose & Izlin Ismail & Mohd Edil Abd Sukor, 2018. "Currency Order Flow and Exchange Rate Determination: Empirical Evidence from the Malaysian Foreign Exchange Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 902-920, August.
    17. Michael Frömmel & Norbert Kiss M. & Klára Pintér, 2011. "Macroeconomic announcements, communication and order flow on the Hungarian foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 172-188, April.
    18. Berger, David W. & Chaboud, Alain P. & Chernenko, Sergey V. & Howorka, Edward & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 93-109, May.
    19. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
    20. Chen, Pei-wen & Huang, Han-ching & Su, Yong-chern, 2014. "The central bank in market efficiency: The case of Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 239-260.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Order Flow; Time-change Sampling; Martingale Estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-02-66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.