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The predictive power of the monetary model of exchange rate determination


  • George Tawadros


This study examines the predictive power of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the Australian dollar vis-a-vis the US dollar exchange rate. Using a cointegration-based error-correction model, it is found that an unrestricted dynamic monetary model outperforms the random walk model at all forecasting horizons, with the degree of improvement increasing as the forecasting horizon is extended.

Suggested Citation

  • George Tawadros, 2001. "The predictive power of the monetary model of exchange rate determination," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 279-286.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:11:y:2001:i:3:p:279-286 DOI: 10.1080/096031001300138672

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bruce Morley, 2009. "A Comparison of Two Alternative Monetary Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination over the Long-Run," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 1(2), pages 63-76, April.
    2. Lee, Chin & M., Azali & Yusop, Zulkornain & Yusoff, Mohammed, 2008. "Is Malaysia exchange rate misalignment before the 1997 crisis?," MPRA Paper 40430, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:kap:iaecre:v:18:y:2012:i:3:p:299-314 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Stephanos Papadamou & Thomas Markopoulos, 2012. "The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate Determination for a “Petrocurrency”: The Case of Norwegian Krone," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(3), pages 299-314, August.
    5. Hoda SELIM, "undated". "Has Egypt's Monetary Policy Changed after the Float?," EcoMod2010 259600152, EcoMod.
    6. Thomas Fullerton & Miwa Hattori & Cuauhtémoc Calderón, 2001. "Error correction exchange rate modeling: Evidence for Mexico," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 25(3), pages 358-368, September.
    7. Sovannroeun SAMRETH & Dara LONG, 2008. "The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Philippines Using ARDL Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(31), pages 1-13.
    8. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Forecasting The Usd/Cop Exchange Rate: A Random Walk With A Variable Drift," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002736, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    9. Moosa, Imad A. & Vaz, John J., 2016. "Cointegration, error correction and exchange rate forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 21-34.
    10. Moosa, Imad & Burns, Kelly, 2014. "The unbeatable random walk in exchange rate forecasting: Reality or myth?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 69-81.
    11. Daniel MITCHELL RESTREPO, 2006. "Forecasting the Colombian Exchange Rate: Capital Adjustments and Politics vs. Traditional IRP, Trade Adjustments and Random Walk Frameworks," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 011228, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty & Altin Tanku, 2010. "The Black-Market Exchange Rate Versus The Official Rate: Which Rate Fosters The Adjustment Speed In The Monetarist Model?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 725-738, December.
    13. Lee, Chin & Law, Chee-Hong, 2013. "The Effects of Trade Openness on Malaysian Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 45185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jae-Kwang Hwang, 2003. "Dynamic forecasting of sticky-price monetary exchange rate model," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(1), pages 103-114, March.
    15. Wei Sun, "undated". "Why Do Floating Exchange Rates Float? Evidence From Capital Flows in a Structural VAR Model," EcoMod2006 272100092, EcoMod.
    16. Lee, Chin & M., Azali, 2005. "Exchange rate misalignments in ASEAN-5 countries," MPRA Paper 59169, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Forecasting the USD/COP Exchange Rate: A Random Walk a Variable Drift," Borradores de Economia 253, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Tawadros, George B., 2008. "A structural time series test of the monetary model of exchange rates under four big inflations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1216-1224, November.

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