Why so Glum? The Meese-Rogoff Methodology Meets the Stock Market
This paper applies the Meese-Rogoff (1983a) methodology to the stock market. We compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of various time-series and fundamentals-based models of aggregate stock prices. We stick as close as possible to the original Meese-Rogoff sample and methodology. Just as Meese and Rogoff found for the case of exchange rates, we find that a random walk model of stock prices performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons, even though we base forecasts on actual future fundamentals of dividends and earnings. Using this metric and for this sample period, aggregate stock prices seem to be as difficult to model empirically as exchange rates.
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- Richard Meese & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1982.
"The out-of-sample failure of empirical exchange rate models: sampling error or misspecification?,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
204, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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- Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff & Jacob Frenkel, . "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," Working Paper 32044, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004.
"Exchange Rates and Fundamentals,"
NBER Working Papers
10723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004.
"A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction,"
NBER Working Papers
10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2412, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2006.
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