IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Instability under Floating Exchange Rates




At the end of the nineties, many developing countries featured an open capital market and relied heavily on dollar-debt financing of their economy. This paper analyses whether, in this context, clean floating can be a sustainable policy choice. The model is cast as a game between successive generations of investors who decide whether they buy or not the debt of a representative firm. The exchange rate is subject to random shocks, which makes uncertain the private sector’s solvency. We show that a small risk of insolvency would bring about a much larger risk of illiquidity. A rational expectation equilibrium without default can be put forward only in the highly improbable case when the currency is extremely overvalued. The case against flexible exchange rates may be stronger than usually thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Besancenot, Damien & Vranceanu, Radu, 2003. "Financial Instability under Floating Exchange Rates," ESSEC Working Papers DR 03011, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-03011

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    2. Herwartz, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2002. "Testing the purchasing power parity in pooled systems of error correction models," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 45-62, January.
    3. Besancenot, Damien & Huynh, Kim & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "Default on sustainable public debt: illiquidity suspect convicted," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 205-211, February.
    4. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
    5. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August.
    6. Edwards, Sebastian, 2002. "The great exchange rate debate after Argentina," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 237-252, December.
    7. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-661, September.
    8. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    9. Ize, Alain & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "Financial dollarization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 323-347, March.
    10. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 21-42, Fall.
    12. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    13. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    14. Cowan, kevin & Quy-Toan Do, 2003. "Financial dollarization and central bank credibility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3082, The World Bank.
    15. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Besancenot, Damien & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "Excessive Liability Dollarization in a Simple Signaling Model," ESSEC Working Papers DR 04001, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.

    More about this item


    Floating; Rational Expectations; Financial Crises; Developing Countries;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-03011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sophie Magnanou). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.