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Forecasting foreign exchange rates in developing economies

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  • Vijay Bhawnani
  • K. Rao Kadiyala

Abstract

We investigate the ability of a variety of exchange rate models to forecast parallel exchange rates for developing economies. In contrast to earlier studies, which use actual values of the exogenous variables, we employ time series forecasts of the exogenous variables. An error correction version of a monetary model proposed by us, that incorporates the dynamics of both short-run and long-run adjustment processes, outperforms all other models that have been suggested earlier.

Suggested Citation

  • Vijay Bhawnani & K. Rao Kadiyala, 1997. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates in developing economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 51-62.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:29:y:1997:i:1:p:51-62
    DOI: 10.1080/000368497327399
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
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    4. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    5. Schinasi, Garry J. & Swamy, P. A. V. B., 1989. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 375-390, September.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    8. Wolff, Christian C P, 1987. "Time-Varying Parameters and the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Structural Exchange Rate Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 87-97, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Takao FUKUCHI & Suminori TOKUNAGA, 1999. "Simulation Analysis Of Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Case Of Indonesia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 37(1), pages 35-58, March.
    2. McCrae, Michael, et al, 2002. "Can Cointegration-Based Forecasting Outperform Univariate Models? An Application to Asian Exchange Rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 355-380, August.
    3. Madura, Jeff & Martin, A. D. & Wiley, Marilyn, 1999. "Forecast bias and accuracy of exchange rates in emerging markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 27-43, January.
    4. Winston T. Lin & Hong-Jen Lin & Yueh H. Chen, 2002. "The Dynamics and Stochastics of Currency Betas Based on the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Foreign Exchange Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 6(3-4), pages 167-195, September.

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