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The Fit of Dynamic Equilibrium Models of Exchange Rate

The two-country monetary model has become a fundamental tool for explaining the behavior of the exchange rate. However, the popularity of this approach is not justified by its empirical support. One of the reasons for the empirical “failure” of exchange rate models could be the econometric approach applied. In this paper, an alternative procedure for evaluating the fit of dynamic equilibrium models of exchange rate is suggested. This approach is applied to three theoretical models: Lucas (1982), Svensson (1985), and Grilli and Roubini (1992).

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Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico in its series Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE with number 0411.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0411
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  1. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. " Equilibrium Valuation of Foreign Exchange Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 799-826, June.
  2. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Liquidity and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 339-352, May.
  3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1985. "Currency prices, terms of trade, and interest rates: A general equilibrium asset-pricing cash-in-advance approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 17-41, February.
  4. Cao, Melanie, 2001. "Systematic jump risks in a small open economy: simultaneous equilibrium valuation of options on the market portfolio and the exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 191-218, April.
  5. Vittorio Grilli & Nouriel Roubini, 1995. "Liquidity Models in Open Economies: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 95-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  6. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
  7. Stockman, Alan C. & Stockman, Alan C., 1983. "Real exchange rates under alternative nominal exchange-rate systems," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 147-166, August.
  8. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  9. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
  10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  11. Alan C. Stockman, 1978. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," UCLA Economics Working Papers 113, UCLA Department of Economics.
  12. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
  13. Charles Engel, 1990. "The risk premium and the liquidity premium in foreign exchange markets," Research Working Paper 90-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  14. Robert J. Hodrick, 1987. "Risk, Uncertainty and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  16. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1982. "A Comparison of Exchange Rate Regimes in the Presence of Imperfect Capital Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(2), pages 365-88, June.
  17. Hu, Xiaoqiang, 1997. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 699-718, September.
  18. Engel, Charles, 1992. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 305-319, May.
  19. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  20. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December.
  21. Dutton, John, 1993. "Real and Monetary Shocks and Risk Premia in Forward Markets for Foreign Exchange," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 731-54, November.
  22. Bekaert, Geert, 1994. "Exchange rate volatility and deviations from unbiasedness in a cash-in-advance model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 29-52, February.
  23. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
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