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Price dynamics in the Belarusian black market for foreign exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Huett, Hannes
  • Krapf, Matthias
  • Uysal, S. Derya

Abstract

Using unique data from an internet-based foreign-exchange trading platform, we show that the black market efficiently incorporated public information on the state of the Belarusian economy during the Balance of Payments crisis of 2011. Between May and October 2011, the government repeatedly devalued the Belarusian ruble and eventually abandoned its fixed exchange rate regime. Measures derived from black market transaction data have significant predictive power for these devaluations. The significance of these black market measures survives even when we include standard macroeconomic indicators in our forecasting model. In line with standard economic theory, activity in the black market has dried up subsequently.

Suggested Citation

  • Huett, Hannes & Krapf, Matthias & Uysal, S. Derya, 2014. "Price dynamics in the Belarusian black market for foreign exchange," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 169-176.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:94:y:2014:i:1:p:169-176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.06.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pieters, Gina, 2016. "Does bitcoin reveal new information about exchange rates and financial integration?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 292, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Gina Christelle Pieters, 2017. "Bitcoin Reveals Exchange Rate Manipulation and Detects Capital Controls," 2017 Papers ppi307, Job Market Papers.
    3. Georges Gallais-Hamonno & Thi-hong-van Hoang & Kim Oosterlinck, 2016. "Price Formation on Clandestine Markets: The Case of the Paris Gold Market during WWII," Working Papers CEB 16-048, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Gallais-Hamonno, Georges & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2015. "Informational efficiency of the clandestine and official gold markets in Paris," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 28-30.
    5. Liudmila Malyshava, 2018. "External Instability in Transition: Applying Minsky's Theory of Financial Fragility to International Markets," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_909, Levy Economics Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Black market; FX market; Technological progress; Price setting;

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • P22 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Prices
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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