Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions : a gravity model analysis
Easing of economic sanctions by Western countries in 2012 augmented the prospect that Myanmar will expand its exports. On the other hand, a sharp rise in natural resource exports during the sanctions brings in a concern about the "Dutch disease". This study projects Myanmar's export potential by calculating counterfactual export values with an augmented gravity model that takes into account the effects of natural resource exports on non-resource exports. Without taking into account the effects of natural resource exports, the counterfactual predicted values of non-resource exports during 2004â€“2011 are more than five times larger than the actual exports. If we take into account the effects, however, the predicted values are smaller than the actual exports. The empirical results imply that the "Dutch disease" is at stake in Myanmar than any other Southeast Asian countries.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in IDE Discussion Paper. No. 426. 2013.8|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 3-2-2 Wakaba, Mihama-ku, Chiba-shi, Chiba 261-8545|
Web page: http://www.ide.go.jp/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Publication Office, IDE 3-2-2 Wakaba, Mihama-ku, Chiba-shi, Chiba 261-8545 JAPAN|
Web: http://www.ide.go.jp/English/Publish/Order Email:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kubo, Koji, 2012.
"Real exchange rate appreciation, resource boom, and policy reform in Myanmar,"
IDE Discussion Papers
358, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
- Koji Kubo, 2013. "Real exchange rate appreciation, resource boom, and policy reform in Myanmar," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 27(1), pages 110-126, 05.
- Santos Silva, J.M.C & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005.
"The Log of Gravity,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5311, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The log of gravity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3744, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková & Jan Babecký & Martin Raiser, 2012. "Gravity Approach for Modelling International Trade in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States: The Role of Geography, Policy and Institutions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 277-301, April.
- Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011.
"Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
- Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001.
"Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle,"
NBER Working Papers
8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Dorward, Andrew & Kydd, Jonathan & Morrison, Jamie & Urey, Ian, 2002.
"A Policy Agenda For Pro Poor Agricultural Growth,"
ADU Working Papers
10923, Imperial College at Wye, Department of Agricultural Sciences.
- Peter Egger, .
"An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials,"
WIFO Working Papers
- Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, 02.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001.
"Natural resources, education, and economic development,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
- Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2000. "Natural Resources, Education, and Economic Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 2594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ben Shepherd, 2012. "The Gravity Model of International Trade: A User Guide," ARTNeT Books and Research Reports, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), number brr11, January.
- Vandenbussche, Hylke & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2010.
"The chilling trade effects of antidumping proliferation,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 760-777, August.
- Hylke Vandenbussche & Maurizio Zanardi, 2010. "The chilling trade effects of antidumping proliferation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136355, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- VANDENBUSSCHE, Hylke & ZANARDI, Maurizio, . "The chilling trade effects of antidumping proliferation," CORE Discussion Papers RP 2355, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Barbara Oegg, 2003. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on US Trade: Andrew Rose's Gravity Model," Policy Briefs PB03-04, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991.
"The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Coxhead, Ian, 2007. "A New Resource Curse? Impacts of China's Boom on Comparative Advantage and Resource Dependence in Southeast Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1099-1119, July.
- Reinhardt, Nola, 2000. "Back to Basics in Malaysia and Thailand: The Role of Resource-Based Exports in Their Export-Led Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-77, January.
- Robert J. R. Elliott & Kengo Ikemoto, 2004.
"AFTA and the Asian Crisis: Help or Hindrance to ASEAN Intra-Regional Trade?,"
Asian Economic Journal,
East Asian Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23, 03.
- R J R Elliott & K Ikemoto, 2003. "AFTA and the Asian Crisis: Help or Hindrance to ASEAN Intra-Regional Trade?," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0311, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- Kudo, Toshihiro, 2005. "The Impact of United States Sanctions on the Myanmar Garment Industry," IDE Discussion Papers 42, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
- Collier, Paul & Venables, Anthony J, 2007.
"Rethinking Trade Preferences: How Africa Can Diversify its Exports,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6262, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul Collier & Anthony J. Venables, 2007. "Rethinking Trade Preferences: How Africa Can Diversify its Exports," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1326-1345, 08.
- Nilsson, Lars, 2000. "Trade integration and the EU economic membership criteria," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 807-827, November.
- Raul CARUSO, 2005. "The Impact of International Economic Sanctions on Trade Empirical Evidence over the Period 1960-2000," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 113(1), pages 41-66.
- Evenett, Simon J, 2002. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on South African Exports," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 557-73, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie Kobayashi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.