IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jet/dpaper/dpaper426.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions : a gravity model analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Kubo, Koji

Abstract

Easing of economic sanctions by Western countries in 2012 augmented the prospect that Myanmar will expand its exports. On the other hand, a sharp rise in natural resource exports during the sanctions brings in a concern about the "Dutch disease". This study projects Myanmar's export potential by calculating counterfactual export values with an augmented gravity model that takes into account the effects of natural resource exports on non-resource exports. Without taking into account the effects of natural resource exports, the counterfactual predicted values of non-resource exports during 2004–2011 are more than five times larger than the actual exports. If we take into account the effects, however, the predicted values are smaller than the actual exports. The empirical results imply that the "Dutch disease" is at stake in Myanmar than any other Southeast Asian countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kubo, Koji, 2013. "Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions : a gravity model analysis," IDE Discussion Papers 426, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper426
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=37749&item_no=1&attribute_id=22&file_no=1
    File Function: First version, 2013
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vandenbussche, Hylke & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2010. "The chilling trade effects of antidumping proliferation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 760-777, August.
    2. Paul Collier & Anthony J. Venables, 2007. "Rethinking Trade Preferences: How Africa Can Diversify its Exports," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1326-1345, August.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    4. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    5. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    6. Robert J. R. Elliott & Kengo Ikemoto, 2004. "AFTA and the Asian Crisis: Help or Hindrance to ASEAN Intra-Regional Trade?," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23, March.
    7. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    8. Dorward, Andrew & Kydd, Jonathan & Morrison, Jamie & Urey, Ian, 2004. "A Policy Agenda for Pro-Poor Agricultural Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 73-89, January.
    9. Kudo, Toshihiro, 2005. "The Impact of United States Sanctions on the Myanmar Garment Industry," IDE Discussion Papers 42, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    10. Reinhardt, Nola, 2000. "Back to Basics in Malaysia and Thailand: The Role of Resource-Based Exports in Their Export-Led Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-77, January.
    11. Koji Kubo, 2013. "Real exchange rate appreciation, resource boom, and policy reform in Myanmar," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 27(1), pages 110-126, May.
    12. Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková & Jan Babecký & Martin Raiser, 2012. "Gravity Approach for Modelling International Trade in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States: The Role of Geography, Policy and Institutions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 277-301, April.
    13. Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, February.
    14. Coxhead, Ian, 2007. "A New Resource Curse? Impacts of China's Boom on Comparative Advantage and Resource Dependence in Southeast Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1099-1119, July.
    15. Raul CARUSO, 2005. "The Impact of International Economic Sanctions on Trade Empirical Evidence over the Period 1960-2000," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 113(1), pages 41-66.
    16. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001. "Natural resources, education, and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
    17. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Barbara Oegg, 2003. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on US Trade: Andrew Rose's Gravity Model," Policy Briefs PB03-04, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    18. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Nilsson, Lars, 2000. "Trade integration and the EU economic membership criteria," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 807-827, November.
    20. repec:taf:rjapxx:v:16:y:2011:i:4:p:579-596 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Lurong Chen & Ludo Cuyvers & Philippe De Lombaerde & Wahyu Mukti Kusumaningtias, 2011. "An Asean–Eu Fta, Regional Production Sharing, And Regional Cohesion. Focus On Cambodia, Laos And Myanmar," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(4), pages 411-427, December.
    22. Evenett, Simon J, 2002. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on South African Exports," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 557-573, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Lar, Ni, 2015. "FDI, industrial upgrading and economic corridor in Myanmar," MPRA Paper 64411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Naylin Oo, 2015. "The implementation of small and medium-sized enterprise development in rice sector of Myanmar: empirical research findings," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 22(1), pages 99-141, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Myanmar; International trade; Economic sanctions; Exports; Gravity model; Dutch disease;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Minami Tosa). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/idegvjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.