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Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions: a gravity model analysis

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  • Koji Kubo

    (Research Fellow, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Bangkok, Nantawan Building, 161 Ratchadamri Road, 16th floor, Bangkok 10330, Thailand)

Abstract

The easing of economic sanctions against Myanmar by Western countries in 2012 augmented the prospect that Myanmar would expand its exports. However, a sharp rise in natural resource exports during the time sanctions had been applied raises concern about the so-called Dutch disease. This study forecasts Myanmar's export potential by calculating counterfactual export values using a gravity model that takes into account the effects of natural resource exports on non-resource exports. Without taking into consideration the effects of natural resource exports, the counterfactual predicted values of non-resource exports during the period 2004-2011 are more than five times larger than those of actual exports. If these effects are taken into account, however, the predicted values are lower than those of actual exports. The empirical results imply that Dutch disease is more of a risk in Myanmar than it is in any other South-East Asian country.

Suggested Citation

  • Koji Kubo, 2014. "Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions: a gravity model analysis," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:unt:jnapdj:v:21:y:2014:i:1:p:1-22
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    Cited by:

    1. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Lar, Ni, 2015. "FDI, industrial upgrading and economic corridor in Myanmar," MPRA Paper 64411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Thet Mon Soe, 2021. "Myanmar’s Manufacturing Exports After the Lifting of Economic Sanctions," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(2), pages 147-164, May.
    3. Naylin Oo, 2015. "The implementation of small and medium-sized enterprise development in rice sector of Myanmar: empirical research findings," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 22(1), pages 99-141, June.
    4. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2021. "Manufacturing exports after the lifting of economic sanctions in Myanmar," MPRA Paper 107956, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Myanmar; economic sanctions; gravity model; Dutch disease.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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