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Monetary policy, structural break, and the monetary transmission mechanism in Thailand

  • Hesse, Heiko

The paper studies monetary policy and the monetary transmission mechanism in Thailand in light of the Asian crisis in 1997. Existing studies that adopt structural vector auto-regression (VAR) approaches do not give a clear and agreed-upon view how monetary shocks are transmitted to the Thai economy that is subject to structural breaks. This study explicitly models a pre-crisis and post-crisis cointegrated VAR model. This analysis supports arguments that the trinity of open capital markets, pegged exchange rate regime, and monetary policy autonomy is inconsistent in the pre-crisis period. In contrast, the model points to an effective monetary policy in the post-crisis period. Further, the author analyzes the common driving trends of the model.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4248.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4248
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  1. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," Working Papers 94-24, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  2. Disyatat, Piti & Vongsinsirikul, Pinnarat, 2003. "Monetary policy and the transmission mechanism in Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 389-418, June.
  3. Gregor Irwin & David Vines, 2003. "Government Guarantees, Investment, and Vulnerability to Financial Crises," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 860-874, November.
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  7. Bayoumi, Tamim & Morsink, James, 2000. "A Peek Inside The Black Box: The Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 2435, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Abdur Chowdhury, 1997. "The financial structure and the demand for money in Thailand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 401-409.
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  12. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
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  14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  15. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  16. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 1998. "Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
  17. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
  18. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
  19. Juselius, Katarina, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of the Changing Role of the German Bundesbank after 1983," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 791-819, November.
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  21. Andreas Beyer, 1998. "Monetary Transmission in Germany: Evidence From a Structural Econometric Model," Discussion Papers 98-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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