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Speculative Attacks on Nordic Exchange-Rates, 1971-1992

  • Forsman, Mats-Ola


    (Department of Economics, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Göteborg University)

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    This paper analyzes the relationship between economic fundamentals and balance-ofpayments crises for the three Nordic countries, Norway, Sweden, and Finland, during 1971-1992. To identify periods of balance-of-payments crisis a method first introduced by Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz (1996) was used. They did not report specific results for the three Nordic countries, but compared a group of ERM countries with a control-group of non- ERM countries (including Norway, Sweden and Finland) during 1967-1992. The results here verify theirs more generally, in that the three Nordic non-ERM countries in particular also followed the so-called first-generation of balance-of-payments-crisis models (Paul Krugman,1979). A second finding was that balance-of-payments crises for the three Nordic countries mainly took place during recessions, typically when governments tried to stimulate their way out by holding government spending constant in spite of decreased tax revenues, which led to budget deficits and speculative attacks. This result is consistent with Krugman’s firstgeneration model, based on constant revenue and increased spending, which led to the same result.

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    Paper provided by University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 186.

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    Length: 71 pages
    Date of creation: 27 Aug 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0186
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden
    Phone: 031-773 10 00
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    1. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
    2. Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," CEPR Discussion Papers 852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    4. Rangvid, Jesper, 2001. " Second Generation Models of Currency Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 613-46, December.
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    7. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
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    12. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-48, August.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
    14. Wyplosz, Charles, 1986. "Capital controls and balance of payments crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 167-179, June.
    15. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
    16. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    17. Englund, Peter, 1990. "Financial deregulation in Sweden," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 385-393, May.
    18. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
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