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Scenario Modeling for the Management of International Bond Portfolios

  • Andrea Beltratti
  • Andrea Consiglio
  • Stavros A. Zenios

We address the problem of portfolio management in the international bond markets. Interest rate risk in the local market, exchange rate volatility across markets, and decisions for hedging currency risk are integral parts of this problem. The paper develops a stochastic programming optimization model for integrating these decisions in a common framework. Monte Carlo simulation procedures, calibrated using historical observations of volatility and correlation data, generate jointly scenarios of interest and exchange rates. The decision maker's risk tolerance is incorporated through a utility function, and additional views on market outlook can also be incorporated in the form of user specified scenarios. The model prescribes optimal asset allocation among the different markets and determines bond-picking decisions and appropriate hedging ratios. Therefore several interrelated decisions are cast in a common framework, while in the past these issues were addressed separately. Empirical results illustrate the efficacy of the simulation models in capturing the uncertainties of the Salomon Brothers international bond market index.

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File URL: http://fic.wharton.upenn.edu/fic/papers/98/9820.pdf
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Paper provided by Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania in its series Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers with number 98-20.

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Date of creation: May 1998
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Handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:98-20
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  1. John M. Mulvey & Hercules Vladimirou, 1992. "Stochastic Network Programming for Financial Planning Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(11), pages 1642-1664, November.
  2. L. C. MacLean & W. T. Ziemba & G. Blazenko, 1992. "Growth Versus Security in Dynamic Investment Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(11), pages 1562-1585, November.
  3. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  4. Golub, Bennett & Holmer, Martin & McKendall, Raymond & Pohlman, Lawrence & Zenios, Stavros A., 1995. "A stochastic programming model for money management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 282-296, September.
  5. Vassiadou-Zeniou, Christiana & Zenios, Stavros A., 1996. "Robust optimization models for managing callable bond portfolios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 264-273, June.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
  7. Ziobrowski, Brigitte J. & Ziobrowski, Alan J., 1995. "Exchange rate risk and internationally diversified portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 65-81, February.
  8. Stein W. Wallace & Stein-Erik Fleten, 2002. "Stochastic programming in energy," GE, Growth, Math methods 0201001, EconWPA, revised 13 Nov 2003.
  9. Farshid Jamshidian & Yu Zhu, 1996. "Scenario Simulation: Theory and methodology (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 43-67.
  10. John M. Mulvey & Stavros A. Zenios, 1994. "Capturing the Correlations of Fixed-income Instruments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(10), pages 1329-1342, October.
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