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Citations of
Michael Peter Clements

For current contact information and a more complete listing of works, please see here

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Working papers

  1. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 869, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

  2. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kim, Jae H., 2006. "Quantile Forecasts of Daily Exchange Rate Returns from Forecasts of Realized Volatility," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 777, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Fulvio Corsi & Davide Pirino & Roberto Renò, 2008. "Volatility forecasting: the jumps do matter," Department of Economics University of Siena 534, Department of Economics, University of Siena. [Downloadable!]
    2. Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero Gallo, 2008. "Comparison of Volatility Measures: a Risk Management Perspective," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2008_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
    3. Fulvio Corsi & Davide Pirino & Roberto Reno, 2009. "Volatility Forecasting: The Jumps Do Matter," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-036, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]

  3. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Alper, C. Emre & Fendoglu, Salih & Saltoglu, Burak, 2008. "Forecasting Stock Market Volatilities Using MIDAS Regressions: An Application to the Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 7460, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    2. C. Emre Alper & Salih Fendoglu & Burak Saltoglu, 2009. "MIDAS Volatility Forecast Performance Under Market Stress: Evidence from Emerging and Developed Stock Markets," Working Papers 2009/04, Bogazici University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

  4. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2005. "What causes the forecasting failure of Markov-Switching models? A Monte Carlo study," Econometrics 0503018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    2. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, . "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal artificial:Aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 377, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    3. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, 2006. "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal: aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 65, pages 73-116, Julio-Dic. [Downloadable!]
    4. Teräsvirta, Timo, 2005. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 598, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 29 Dec 2005. [Downloadable!]
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    5. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    7. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting: An Illustration with German Industrial Production and Linear Models," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 57, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
    8. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]

  5. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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    Cited by:

    1. Kirstin Hubrich, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 247, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    2. Tobias Knedlik & Rolf Scheufele, 2007. "Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?," IWH Discussion Papers 17-07, Halle Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    3. Paul Gallimore & Pat McAllister, 2005. "The Production and Consumption of Commercial Real Estate Market Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-06, Henley Business School, Reading University. [Downloadable!]
    4. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper 2005-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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    5. Frank A.G. den Butter & Pieter W. Jansen, 2008. "Beating the Random Walk: a Performance Assessment of Long-term Interest Rate Forecasts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-102/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    6. P.J.G. Vlaar & A.H.J. den Reijer, 2003. "Forecasting inflation: An art as well as a science!," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 107, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    7. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    8. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    9. Pat McAllister & Graeme Newell & George Matysiak, 2005. "Analysing Uk Real Estate Market Forecast Disagreement," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-13, Henley Business School, Reading University. [Downloadable!]
    10. Olivier Basdevant & David Hargreaves, 2003. "Modelling structural change: the case of New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    11. Adam Elbourne & Henk Kranendonk & Rob Luginbuhl & Bert Smid & Martin Vromans, 2008. "Evaluating CPB’s published GDP growth forecasts," CPB Documents 172, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    12. Pat McAllister & Graeme Newell & George Matysiak, 2005. "An Evaluation Of The Performance Of UK Real Estate Forecasters," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2005-23, Henley Business School, Reading University. [Downloadable!]
    13. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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    14. Friedrich Fritzer & Gabriel Moser & Johann Scharler, 2002. "Forecasting Austrian HICP and its Components using VAR and ARIMA Models," Working Papers 73, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    15. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    16. David F. Hendry, 2004. "Robustifying Forecasts from Equilibrium-Correction Models," Economics Papers 2004-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    17. David F. Hendry, 2004. "Unpredictability and the Foundations of Economic Forecasting," Economics Papers 2004-W15, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    18. Manfred Deistler & Klaus Neusser, 2004. "Prognose uni- und multivariater Zeitreihen," Diskussionsschriften dp0401, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
    19. A.H.J. den Reijer & P.J.G. Vlaar, 2003. "Forecasting Inflation in the Netherlands and the Euro Area," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 723, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]

  6. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Kirstin Hubrich, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 247, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Ricardo Mestre, 2007. "Are survey-based inflation expectations in the euro area informative," Working Paper Series 721, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    4. Favero, Carlo A & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    5. Rosario Dell'Aquila & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2004. "Stock and Bond Return Predictability : The Discrimination Power of Model Selection Criteria," Cahiers du Département d'Econométrie 2004.05, Département d'Econométrie, Université de Genève. [Downloadable!]
    6. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005. "Pooling-based Data Interpolation and Backdating," Working Papers 299, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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    7. Kuzin, Vladimir & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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    8. David F. Hendry & Kirstin Hubrich, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    9. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    10. DE LA CROIX, David & LINDH, Thomas & MALMBERG, Bo, 2006. "Growth and longevity from the industrial revolution to the future of an aging society," CORE Discussion Papers 2006064, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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    11. Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2008. "Predicting Stock Market Returns by Combining Forecasts," Working Papers 0801, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
    12. Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2003. "Nonlinear Correlograms and Partial Autocorrelograms," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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    13. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, . "Forecast combination and the Bank of England’s suite of statistical forecasting models," Bank of England working papers 323, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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    14. Frank A.G. den Butter & Pieter W. Jansen, 2008. "Beating the Random Walk: a Performance Assessment of Long-term Interest Rate Forecasts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-102/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    15. Österholm, Pär, 2006. "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts," Working Paper Series 2006:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    16. Timmermann, Allan G, 2005. "Forecast Combinations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    17. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni & Banca d'Italia), 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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    18. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," Working Papers 216, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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    19. Stefan Günnel & Karl-Heinz Tödter, 2009. "Does Benford’s Law hold in economic research and forecasting?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 273-292, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    20. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    21. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    22. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," ECARES Working Papers 2008_035, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares. [Downloadable!]
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    23. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Monitoring the Economy of the Euro Area: A Comparison of Composite Coincident Indexes," Working Papers 319, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    24. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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    25. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    26. Sancetta, A., 2005. "Forecasting Distributions with Experts Advice," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0517, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    27. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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    28. Gomez, Miguel I. & Gonzalez, Eliana & Melo, Luis F. & Torres, Jose L., 2006. "Forecasting Food Price Inflation, Challenges for Central Banks in Developing Countries using an Inflation Targeting Framework: the Case of Colombia," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21181, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    29. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    30. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2003. "Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth," Working Papers 235, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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    31. Adam Elbourne & Henk Kranendonk & Rob Luginbuhl & Bert Smid & Martin Vromans, 2008. "Evaluating CPB’s published GDP growth forecasts," CPB Documents 172, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    32. Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2006. "To Combine Forecasts or to Combine Information?," Working Papers 200806, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2009. [Downloadable!]
    33. Issler, João Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira, 2007. "A Panel Data Approach to Economic Forecasting: The Bias-Corrected Average Forecast," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 642, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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    34. Eklund, Jana & Karlsson, Sune, 2005. "Forecast Combination and Model Averaging using Predictive Measures," Working Paper Series 191, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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    35. Mark Greer, 2005. "Combination forecasting for directional accuracy: An application to survey interest rate forecasts," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 607-615, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    36. Stefania D'Amico, 2005. "Density selection and combination under model ambiguity: an application to stock returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    37. Joshua Gallin & Randal Verbrugge, 2007. "Improving the CPI’s Age-Bias Adjustment: Leverage, Disaggregation and Model Averaging," Working Papers 411, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    38. Sancetta, A., 2007. "Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0718, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    39. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    40. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Forecast pooling for short time series of macroeconomic variables," Working Papers 212, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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    41. Stefania D'Amico, 2004. "Density Estimation and Combination under Model Ambiguity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 273, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]

  7. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael Clements, 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 058, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]

  8. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2000. "Forecasting with Difference-Stationary and Trend-Stationary Models," Economics Series Working Papers 005, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Neil R. Ericsson, 2001. "Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1011, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
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    3. David I. Harvey & Terence C. Mills, 2002. "Unit roots and double smooth transitions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 675-683, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    4. Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "`Weak` trends for inference and forecasting in finite samples," Economics Series Working Papers 210, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    5. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1397, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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    6. David T. Griffiths, 2004. "The big problem of forecasting small change," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2195-2207, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    7. Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]

  9. M.P. Clements & Ph.H.B.F. Franses & J. Smith, 1999. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Econometric Institute Report 141, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    Cited by:

    1. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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    2. Manzan, S. & Zerom, D., 2005. "A Multi-Step Forecast Density," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    3. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    4. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    5. Duarte, A. & Venetis, I. & Payá, I., 2004. "Curva de rendimientos y crecimiento de la producción real en la UEM: eficiencia y estabilidad predictiva./Yield Curve and Real Output Growth in the EMU: Efficiency and Predictive Stability," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 21, Abril. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    6. Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia & Denise R. Osborn & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2008. "Comparing Seasonal Forecasts of Industrial Production," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 102, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    7. Angelos Kanas, 2003. "Non-linear forecasts of stock returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 299-315. [Downloadable!]
    8. Hui Feng & Jia Liu, 2002. "A SETAR Model for Canadian GDP: Non-Linearities and Forecast Comparisons," Econometrics Working Papers 0206, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
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    9. Asmara Jamaleh, 2002. "Explaining and forecasting the euro/dollar exchange rate through a non-linear threshold model," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 422-448, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    10. B. Siliverstovs & D.J. Van Dijk, 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear and structural change models," Econometric Institute Report 321, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    11. D.J. Van Dijk & P.H. Franses, 2003. "Selecting a nonlinear time series model using weighted tests of equal forecast accuracy," Econometric Institute Report 315, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    12. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Regime Switching and Artificial Neural Network Forecasting," Working Papers 0502, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

  10. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Knüppel, Malte, 2004. "Testing for business cycle asymmetries based on autoregressions with a Markov-switching intercept," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    2. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    3. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    4. Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2003. "Business Cycle in the Industrial Production of Brazilian States," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] e75, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
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    5. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2001. "A New Approach to the Analysis of Business Cycle Transitions in a Model of Output and Employment," Economics Series Working Papers 059, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    6. Aka, B.F., 2004. "Do WAEMU Countries Exhibit a Regional Business Cycle?. A Simulated Markov Switching Model for a Western Africa area," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(4). [Downloadable!]
    7. M. Portugal & I.A. de Morais, 2004. "STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE BRAZILIAN DEMAND FOR IMPORTS: A regime switching approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 346, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    8. Peter McAdam, 2007. "USA, Japan and the Euro Area: Comparing Business-Cycle Features," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 135-156, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Clements, M.P. & Smith J., 1998. "Evaluating The Forecast of Densities of Linear and Non-Linear Models: Applications to Output Growth and Unemployment," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 509, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Shamiri, Ahmed & Shaari, Abu Hassan & Isa, Zaidi, 2007. "Practical Volatility Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management," MPRA Paper 9790, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 May 2008. [Downloadable!]
    2. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Bootstrap Conditional Distribution Tests In the Presence of Dynamic Misspecification," Departmental Working Papers 200311, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    3. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "Some Recent Developments in Predictive Accuracy Testing With Nested Models and (Generic) Nonlinear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200316, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    4. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan G. Timmermann, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Working Paper Series 058, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    5. Manzan, S. & Zerom, D., 2005. "A Multi-Step Forecast Density," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    6. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    7. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 082, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    8. G. Ascari & Emanuela Marrocu, 2003. "Forecasting inflation: a comparison of linear Phillips curve models and nonlinear time serie models," Working Paper CRENoS 200307, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    9. Xiaohong Chen & Yanqin Fan, 2002. "Evaluating Density Forecasts via the Copula Approach," Working Papers 0225, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Sep 2003. [Downloadable!]
    10. Gianni Amisano & Raffaella Giacomini, 2005. "Comparing Density Forecsts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Working Papers ubs0504, University of Brescia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    11. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2003. "The Performance Of Setar Models : A Regime Conditional Evaluation Of Point, Interval And Density Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 663, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    13. Francis X. Diebold & Jinyong Hahn & Anthony S. Tay, 1998. "Real-Time Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration: Monitoring the Risk of High-Frequency Returns on Foreign Exchange," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-05, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Burkhard Raunig, 2003. "Testing for Longer Horizon Predictability of Return Volatility with an Application to the German DAX," Working Papers 86, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    15. Gabriela de Raaij & Burkhard Raunig, 2002. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with an Application to Stock Market Returns," Working Papers 59, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    16. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Real-time detection of the business cycle using SETAR models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00185372_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    17. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    18. Heather M. Anderson & Chin Nam Low, 2004. "Random Walk Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised May 2005. [Downloadable!]
    19. Anthony Tay & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2000. "Density Forecasting: A Survey," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0370, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    20. B. Siliverstovs & D.J. Van Dijk, 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear and structural change models," Econometric Institute Report 321, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    21. Gabriela De Raaij & Burkhard Raunig, 2005. "Evaluating density forecasts from models of stock market returns," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 151-166, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    22. Shamiri, Ahmed & Shaari, Abu Hassan & Isa, Zaidi, 2008. "Comparing the accuracy of density forecasts from competing GARCH models," MPRA Paper 13662, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    23. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    24. Francisco Peñaranda, 2004. "Are Vector Autoregressions And Accurate Model For Dynamic Asset Allocation?," Working Papers wp2004_0419, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]
    25. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Norman Swanson, 2004. "An Empirical Investigation of the Usefulness of ARFIMA Models for Predicting Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series," Departmental Working Papers 200422, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    26. Hergen Frerichs & Gunter Löffler, 2001. "Evaluating credit risk models: A critique and a proposal," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 84, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main. [Downloadable!]
    27. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "The Block Bootstrap for Parameter Estimation Error In Recursive Estimation Schemes, With Applications to Predictive Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers 200313, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    28. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]

  12. Clements, M.P. & Smith, J., 1998. "Non-Linearities in Exchange Rates," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 504, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. G. Ascari & Emanuela Marrocu, 2003. "Forecasting inflation: a comparison of linear Phillips curve models and nonlinear time serie models," Working Paper CRENoS 200307, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    2. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 1999. "Modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un confronto previsivo," Working Paper CRENoS 199914, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    3. Liew Khim Sen & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2003. "How Well the Ringgit-Yen Rate Fits the Non-linear Smooth Transition Autoregressive and Linear Autoregressive Models," GE, Growth, Math methods 0307004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  13. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H.-M., 1997. "A Comparison of the Forecasting Performance of Markov-Switching and Threshold Autoregressive Models of US GNP," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 489, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Philip Rothman, . "Higher-Order Residual Analysis for Simple Bilinear and Threshold Autoregressive Models with the TR Test," Working Papers 9813, East Carolina University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Moritz Cruz, 2005. "A three-regime business cycle model for an emerging economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 399-402, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  14. Clements, M.C., 1996. "Evaluating the Rationality of Fixed-Event Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 457, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 6526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  15. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1996. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical Setar Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 464, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Working Papers 0201, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. M.P. Clements & Ph.H.B.F. Franses & J. Smith, 1999. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Econometric Institute Report 141, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. P.H. Franses & D. Van Dijk, 2001. "The Forecasting Performance of Various Models for Seasonality and Nonlinearity for Quarterly Industrial Production," Econometric Institute Report 222, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2005. "Assessing the credibility of a target zone: evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(19), pages 2265-2287, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    5. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43. [Downloadable!]
    7. Denise R. Osborn & Paul W. Simpson, 2000. "Forecasting UK Industrial Production Over the Business Cycle," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1059, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2003. "The Performance Of Setar Models : A Regime Conditional Evaluation Of Point, Interval And Density Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 663, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Timo Teräsvirta & Dick van Dijk & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2004. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A reexamination," Textos para discussão 485, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Real-time detection of the business cycle using SETAR models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00185372_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    11. D. van Dijk & T. Terasvirta & P.H. Franses, 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Report 200, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Threshold Models for Trended Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9905, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    13. David G. McMillan, 2009. "Non-linear interest rate dynamics and forecasting: evidence for US and Australian interest rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 139-155. [Downloadable!]
    14. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2001. "Evaluating non-linear models on point and interval forecasts: an application with exchange rate returns," Working Paper CRENoS 200110, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    15. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    16. Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2007. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Discussion Papers 5_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Prasad S. Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D. Thomakos, 2006. "Forecasting Industry-Level CPI and PPI Inflation: Does Exchange Rate Pass-Through Matter?," Economics Series 2006_10, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. Hui Feng & Jia Liu, 2002. "A SETAR Model for Canadian GDP: Non-Linearities and Forecast Comparisons," Econometrics Working Papers 0206, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    19. D.J. Van Dijk & P.H. Franses, 2003. "Selecting a nonlinear time series model using weighted tests of equal forecast accuracy," Econometric Institute Report 315, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    20. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2000. "La performance di modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un'applicazione con dati a diversa frequenza," Working Paper CRENoS 200014, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    21. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    22. David Peel & Ivan Paya & E Pavlidis, 2009. "Forecasting the Real Exchange Rate using a Long Span of Data. A Rematch: Linear vs Nonlinear," Working Papers 006075, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
    23. N Terui & HK van Dijk, 1999. "Combined forecasts from linear and nonlinear time series models," Econometric Institute Report 172, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    24. Shiyi Chen & Kiho Jeong & Wolfgang Härdle, 2008. "Support Vector Regression Based GARCH Model with Application to Forecasting Volatility of Financial Returns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-014, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]

  16. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Multi-Step Estimation for Forecasting," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 447, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Guillaume Chevillon, 2006. "Multi-step Forecasting in Unstable Economies: Robustness Issues in the Presence of Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 257, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    3. Guillaume Chevillon, 2005. "Direct multi-step estimation and forecasting," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-10, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Coen Pretorius, 2004. "A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price," Development and Comp Systems 0409054, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    5. Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    7. Guillaume Chevillon & David F. Hendry, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Papers 2004-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    8. Ralf Brüggemann & Helmut Lütkepohl & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2006. "Forecasting Euro-Area Variables with German Pre-EMU Data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-065, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Instability and Non-Linearity in the EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 3312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    10. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Proietti, Tommaso, 2009. "The Multistep Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition," MPRA Paper 15345, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Michael Artis & Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Factor forecasts for the UK," Working Papers 203, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," Working Papers 216, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Hendry, David F & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    15. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Guillaume Chevillon & David Hendry, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 196, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    18. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, . "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," Borradores de Economia 458, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    19. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "A Simple Benchmark for Forecasts of Growth and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6012, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    20. Alfred A Haug & Christie Smith, 2007. "Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    21. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2009. "Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 7183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    22. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Forecast pooling for short time series of macroeconomic variables," Working Papers 212, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    23. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Direct and iterated multistep AR methods for difference stationary processes," MPRA Paper 10859, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
    24. Carmine Trecroci & Juan Luis Vega-Croissier, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 33, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    25. Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Forecasting and Signal Extraction with Misspecified Models," Econometrics 0401002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  17. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1996. "Performance of Alternative Forecasting Methods for Setar Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 467, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Dick van Dijk & Timo Teräsvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:

  18. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D., 1992. "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 99138, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Neil R. Ericsson, 2001. "Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1997. "Integration, Cointegration and the Forecast Consistency of Structural Exchange Rate Models," NBER Working Papers 5943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    3. Ph.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap, 1999. "Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time series models," Econometric Institute Report 156, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Further Results on MSFE Encompassing," Working Papers 143, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    5. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," NBER Technical Working Papers 0217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    6. Ester Ruiz & Fernando Lorenzo, 1997. "Prediction with univariate time series models: The Iberia case," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0298, Department of Economics - dECON. [Downloadable!]
    7. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & João Victor Issler & George Athanasopoulos, 2005. "Forecasting Accuracy and Estimation Uncertainty Using VAR Models with Short- and Long-Term Economic Restrictions: A Monte-Carlo Study," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Gustavsson, Patrik & Nordström, Jonas, 1999. "The Impact of Seasonal Unit Roots and Vector ARMA Modeling on Forecasting Monthly Tourism Flows," Working Paper Series 150, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research, revised 01 Jul 2000. [Downloadable!]
    10. Boriss Siliverstovs & Tom Engsted & Niels Haldrup, 2003. "Long-Run Forecasting in Multicointegrated Systems," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 381, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Richard G. Anderson & Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 2001. "A vector error correction forecasting model of the U.S. economy," Working Papers 1998-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    13. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 1999. "Modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un confronto previsivo," Working Paper CRENoS 199914, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    15. George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2006. "A Complete VARMA Modelling Methodology Based on Scalar Components," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. George Athanasopoulos & D.S. Poskitt & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Two canonical VARMA forms: Scalar component models vis-à-vis the Echelon form," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised May 2009. [Downloadable!]
    17. Vahid, Farshid & Issler, João Victor, 2001. "The Importance of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 417, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-37, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    19. Geoffrey Shuetrim & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-10, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    20. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 1994. "Can Econometrics Improve Economic Forecasting?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 130(III), pages 267-298, September. [Downloadable!]
    21. Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    22. Clements, Michael P & Harvey, David I, 2006. "Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 774, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    23. George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2006. "VARMA versus VAR for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    24. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    25. Richard Paap & Philip Hans Franses & Marco Van Der Leij, 2002. "Modelling and forecasting level shifts in absolute returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 601-616. [Downloadable!]
    26. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2000. "La performance di modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un'applicazione con dati a diversa frequenza," Working Paper CRENoS 200014, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    27. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    28. Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1997. "STLS/US-VECM6.1: a vector error-correction forecasting model of the U. S. economy," Working Papers 1997-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    29. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    30. Bruce Mizrach, 1996. "Forecast Comparison in L2," Departmental Working Papers 199524, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    31. David Hendry, 2000. "Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation, and the Lucas Critique," Economics Papers 2002-W8, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    32. Rob J. Hyndman & Anne B. Koehler, 2005. "Another Look at Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    33. JS Armstrong & Robert Fildes, 2004. "Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods," General Economics and Teaching 0412002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    34. Neil R. Ericsson, David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestiwch, . "The UK Demand for Broad Money over the Long run," Economics Papers W29, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]

  19. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D.F., 1992. "Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems," Economics Series Working Papers 99139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & João Victor Issler & George Athanasopoulos, 2005. "Forecasting Accuracy and Estimation Uncertainty Using VAR Models with Short- and Long-Term Economic Restrictions: A Monte-Carlo Study," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. H. Lütkepohl, . "Forecasting Cointegrated VARMA Processes," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-68, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
    3. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 1999. "Modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un confronto previsivo," Working Paper CRENoS 199914, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    4. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    5. Vahid, Farshid & Issler, João Victor, 2001. "The Importance of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 417, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    7. Maghyereh, A., 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and Emerging Stock Markets: A Generalized VAR Approach," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 27-40. [Downloadable!]
    8. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Cointegration and long-horizon forecasting," Working Papers 97-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2000. "La performance di modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un'applicazione con dati a diversa frequenza," Working Paper CRENoS 200014, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    10. Friedrich Fritzer & Gabriel Moser & Johann Scharler, 2002. "Forecasting Austrian HICP and its Components using VAR and ARIMA Models," Working Papers 73, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    11. Katarina Juselius & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," Discussion Papers 00-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Darius Hinz & Camille Logeay, 2006. "Forecasting Employment for Germany," IMK Working Paper 01-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute, revised Jan 2006. [Downloadable!]
    13. Rebecca A Emerson & David Hendry, 1994. "An evaluation of forecasting using leading indicators," Economics Papers 5., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    14. Boris Siliverstovs & Tom Engsted & Niels Haldrup, . "Long-run forecasting in multicointegrated systems," Economics Working Papers 2002-15, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

Articles

  1. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir Kuzin & Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2009. "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/32, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    2. Kuzin, Vladimir & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "MIDAS versus mixed-frequency VAR: nowcasting GDP in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]

  2. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kim, Jae H., 2008. "Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 729-750, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  3. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 76-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 869, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

  4. Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
    2. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]

  5. Michael Clements, 2006. "Evaluating the survey of professional forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 49-64, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts : The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 869, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    3. John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2009. "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper Series 1017, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  6. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors' Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Jennifer L. Castle & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett & David F. Hendry, 2008. "Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 408, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    3. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2008. "The Long-Run Determinants of UK Wages, 1860-2004," Economics Series Working Papers 409, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  7. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    3. Jan G. De Gooijer & Antoni Vidiella-i-Anguera, 2005. "Estimating threshold cointegrated systems," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(8), pages 1-7. [Downloadable!]

  8. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2004. "Pooling of forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  9. Clements, Michael P. & Franses, Philip Hans & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 169-183. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  10. Michael P. Clements, 2004. "Evaluating the Bank of England Density Forecasts of Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 844-866, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. David Johnstone, 2007. "Economic Darwinism: Who has the Best Probabilities?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 47-96, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    2. Österholm, Pär, 2006. "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts," Working Paper Series 2006:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-050/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. John Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2009. "Calibration and Resolution Diagnostics for Bank of England Density Forecasts," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-36, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    5. Anthony Garratt & Shaun P Vahey, 2005. "UK Real-Time Macro Data Characteristics," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0502, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Boero,Gianna & Smith,Jeremy & Wallis,Kenneth F, 2006. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction : the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 811, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2008. "How informative are macroeconomic risk forecasts? An examination of the Bank of England's inflation forecasts," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]

  11. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "Can regime-switching models reproduce the business cycle features of US aggregate consumption, investment and output?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. David N. DeJong & Hariharan Dharmarajan & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes," Working Papers 367, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
    2. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    3. James Morley & Jeremy Piger & Pao-Lin Tien, 2009. "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: How Important Is Nonlinearity Versus Multivariate Information?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

  12. Michael P. Clements & Nick Taylor, 2003. "Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 445-456. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Kenneth F. Wallis, 2001. "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts and the Bank of England's fan charts," Working Paper Series 083, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  13. Michael P. Clements & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Asymmetric output-gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark-up pricing models: Evidence for the US and the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(4), pages 359-374, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2007. "UK inflation: persistance, seasonality and monetary policy," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0716, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2003. "Non-linear Inflationary Dynamics: Evidence from the UK," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-03, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Christopher Martin & Michael Arghyrou & Costas Milas, 2004. "Nonlinear inflation dynamics: evidence from the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 59, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    4. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    5. D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004. "Modelling UK Inflation: Persistence, Seasonality and Monetary Policy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 46, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]

  14. Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses & Michael P. Clements & Jeremy Smith, 2003. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 359-375. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  15. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  16. Clements, Michael P. & Galv O, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Testing The Expectations Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates In Threshold Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 567-585, September. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Alain W. HECQ, 2005. "Common Trends and Common Cycles in Latin America: A 2-step vs an Iterative Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 258, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November. [Downloadable!]
    3. Daiki Maki, 2008. "The Performance of Variance Ratio Unit Root Tests Under Nonlinear Stationary TAR and STAR Processes: Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations and Applications," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 77-94, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  17. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2005. "What causes the forecasting failure of Markov-Switching models? A Monte Carlo study," Econometrics 0503018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    2. Knüppel, Malte, 2004. "Testing for business cycle asymmetries based on autoregressions with a Markov-switching intercept," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    3. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Ferrara, Laurent & Guégan, Dominique, 2005. "Detection of the industrial business cycle using SETAR models," MPRA Paper 4389, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Michael J. Dueker, 2006. "Using cyclical regimes of output growth to predict jobless recoveries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 145-154. [Downloadable!]
    6. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2001. "Extracting, Using and Analysing Cyclical Information," MPRA Paper 15, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    7. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    8. Ferrara, Laurent, 2006. "A real-time recession indicator for the Euro area," MPRA Paper 4042, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    9. Eric Girardin, 2005. "Growth-cycle features of East Asian countries: are they similar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 143-156. [Downloadable!]
    10. Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2003. "Business Cycle in the Industrial Production of Brazilian States," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] e75, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Frédérick Demers & Ryan Macdonald, 2007. "The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models," Working Papers 07-38, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    12. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2001. "A New Approach to the Analysis of Business Cycle Transitions in a Model of Output and Employment," Economics Series Working Papers 059, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Aka, B.F., 2004. "Do WAEMU Countries Exhibit a Regional Business Cycle?. A Simulated Markov Switching Model for a Western Africa area," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(4). [Downloadable!]
    14. M. Portugal & I.A. de Morais, 2004. "STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE BRAZILIAN DEMAND FOR IMPORTS: A regime switching approach," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 346, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    15. M Cruz, 2003. "The Business Cycle in a Financially Deregulated Context: Theory and Evidence," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0331, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    16. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    17. Peter McAdam, 2007. "USA, Japan and the Euro Area: Comparing Business-Cycle Features," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 135-156, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:

  18. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2002. "Evaluating multivariate forecast densities: a comparison of two approaches," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 397-407. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," Discussion Papers 2008-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Shamiri, Ahmed & Shaari, Abu Hassan & Isa, Zaidi, 2007. "Practical Volatility Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management," MPRA Paper 9790, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 May 2008. [Downloadable!]
    3. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Bootstrap Conditional Distribution Tests In the Presence of Dynamic Misspecification," Departmental Working Papers 200311, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "Some Recent Developments in Predictive Accuracy Testing With Nested Models and (Generic) Nonlinear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200316, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    7. Isao Ishida, 2005. "Scanning Multivariate Conditional Densities with Probability Integral Transforms," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-369, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
    8. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Norman Swanson, 2004. "An Empirical Investigation of the Usefulness of ARFIMA Models for Predicting Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series," Departmental Working Papers 200422, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "The Block Bootstrap for Parameter Estimation Error In Recursive Estimation Schemes, With Applications to Predictive Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers 200313, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

  19. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Can oil shocks explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 185-204. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Oleg Korenok & Bruce Mizrach & Stan Radchenko, 2004. "The Microeconomics of Macroeconomic Asymmetries: Sectoral Driving Forces and Firm Level Characteristics," Departmental Working Papers 200405, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Stan Radchenko & Oleg Korenok, 2004. "The role of permanent and transitory components in business cycle volatility moderation," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 149, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Muellbauer, John & Nunziata, Luca, 2001. "Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 2906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    5. Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2003. "Business Cycle in the Industrial Production of Brazilian States," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] e75, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "Can regime-switching models reproduce the business cycle features of US aggregate consumption, investment and output?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
    7. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and oil inventory changes on gasoline prices," Microeconomics 0406001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  20. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2002. "Modelling methodology and forecast failure," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 319-344, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    2. Kirstin Hubrich, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 247, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Norman Swanson & Oleg Korenok, 2006. "The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models Versus Simple Linear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200615, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    4. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2008. "New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA," Economics Series Working Papers 406, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    6. David Hendry & Maozu Lu & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Model Identification and Non-unique Structure," Economics Papers 2002-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    7. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Economic Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    8. Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "Evaluating a Central Bank’s Recent Forecast Failure," Memorandum 22/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

  21. Michael P. Clements & David F.Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting with difference-stationary and trend-stationary models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S1-S19.
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  22. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2001. "Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 133-148, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Ferrara, Laurent & Guégan, Dominique, 2005. "Detection of the industrial business cycle using SETAR models," MPRA Paper 4389, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Ben Craig & Ernst Glatzer & Joachim Keller & Martin Scheicher, 2003. "The forecasting performance of German stock option densities," Working Paper 0312, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    3. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2003. "The Performance Of Setar Models : A Regime Conditional Evaluation Of Point, Interval And Density Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 663, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. D. van Dijk & T. Terasvirta & P.H. Franses, 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Report 200, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    7. Ben R. Craig & Joachim G. Keller, 2003. "The empirical performance of option-based densities of foreign exchange," Working Paper 0313, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    8. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2001. "Evaluating non-linear models on point and interval forecasts: an application with exchange rate returns," Working Paper CRENoS 200110, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    9. Keller, Joachim & Glatzer, Ernst & Craig, Ben R & Scheicher, Martin, 2003. "The Forecasting Performance of German Stock Option Densities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    10. B. Siliverstovs & D.J. Van Dijk, 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear and structural change models," Econometric Institute Report 321, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Sofiane Sekioua, 2004. "The forward unbiasedness hypothesis and the forward premium: a nonlinear analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 85, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    12. D.J. Van Dijk & P.H. Franses, 2003. "Selecting a nonlinear time series model using weighted tests of equal forecast accuracy," Econometric Institute Report 315, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    13. Shiyi Chen & Kiho Jeong & Wolfgang Härdle, 2008. "Support Vector Regression Based GARCH Model with Application to Forecasting Volatility of Financial Returns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-014, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]

  23. Clements, Michael P & Taylor, Nick, 2001. "Robust Evaluation of Fixed-Event Forecast Rationality," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 285-95, July.

    Cited by:

    1. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Rosario Dell'Aquila & Elvezio Ronchetti, 2004. "Robust tests of predictive accuracy," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(2), pages 161-184. [Downloadable!]

  24. Clements, Michael P. & Taylor, Nick, 2001. "Bootstrapping prediction intervals for autoregressive models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-267. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "A Test for Comparing Multiple Misspecified Conditional Distributions," Departmental Working Papers 200314, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Dora Borbély & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2003. "Macroeconomic Interval Forecasting: The Case of Assessing the Risk of Deflation in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1153, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    4. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2009. "Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/17, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]

  25. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 1999. "On winning forecasting competitions in economics," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 123-160. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "Some Recent Developments in Predictive Accuracy Testing With Nested Models and (Generic) Nonlinear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200316, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 082, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. José Luis Fernández Serrano & Mª Dolores Robles Fernández, 2001. "Structural Breaks and interest rates forecast: a sequential approach," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0110, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. [Downloadable!]
    4. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-063, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    6. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee, 2000. "A Multi-Country Structural VAR Model," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, Australian National University, Economics RSPAS. [Downloadable!]
    7. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "The Effect of Data Transformation on Common Cycle, Cointegration and Unit Root Tests: Monte Carlo Results and a Simple Test," Departmental Working Papers 200322, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. David Hendry, 2000. "Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation, and the Lucas Critique," Economics Papers 2002-W8, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  26. Clements, Michael P & Madlener, Reinhard, 1999. "Seasonality, Cointegration, and Forecasting UK Residential Energy Demand," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 185-206, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge & Yashushi Ninomiya, 2000. "Modelling Technical Progress: An Application of the Stochastic Trend Model to UK Energy Demand," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 99, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]

  27. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-41, March-Apr. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  28. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Raphael Markellos & Terence Mills, 2003. "Asset pricing dynamics," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 533-556, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    2. Guillaume Chevillon, 2005. "Direct multi-step estimation and forecasting," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-10, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Guillaume Chevillon & David F. Hendry, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Papers 2004-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    4. Vasco J. Gabriel & Luis F. Martins, 2000. "The Forecast Performance of Long Memory and Markov Switching Models," NIPE Working Papers 2/2000, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    5. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 13221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    6. José Luis Fernández Serrano & Mª Dolores Robles Fernández, 2001. "Structural Breaks and interest rates forecast: a sequential approach," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0110, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. [Downloadable!]
    7. Guillaume Chevillon & David Hendry, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 196, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working papers 2009-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  29. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998. "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C47-C75.

    Cited by:

    1. Marie Bessec & Othman Bouabdallah, 2005. "What causes the forecasting failure of Markov-Switching models? A Monte Carlo study," Econometrics 0503018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    2. Dick van Dijk & Timo Teräsvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    3. Knüppel, Malte, 2004. "Testing for business cycle asymmetries based on autoregressions with a Markov-switching intercept," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    4. M.P. Clements & Ph.H.B.F. Franses & J. Smith, 1999. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Econometric Institute Report 141, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    6. Vasco J. Gabriel & Luis F. Martins, 2000. "The Forecast Performance of Long Memory and Markov Switching Models," NIPE Working Papers 2/2000, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    7. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market, regime shifts and international spillovers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 345-376. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Philip Rothman, . "Higher-Order Residual Analysis for Simple Bilinear and Threshold Autoregressive Models with the TR Test," Working Papers 9813, East Carolina University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    9. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael Clements, 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 058, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Moritz Cruz, 2005. "A three-regime business cycle model for an emerging economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 399-402, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    12. Timo Teräsvirta & Dick van Dijk & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2004. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A reexamination," Textos para discussão 485, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. George Athanasopoulos & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 63-87. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Muellbauer, John & Nunziata, Luca, 2001. "Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 2906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    15. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    16. Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2007. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Discussion Papers 5_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Hui Feng & Jia Liu, 2002. "A SETAR Model for Canadian GDP: Non-Linearities and Forecast Comparisons," Econometrics Working Papers 0206, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. B. Siliverstovs & D.J. Van Dijk, 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear and structural change models," Econometric Institute Report 321, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    19. D.J. Van Dijk & P.H. Franses, 2003. "Selecting a nonlinear time series model using weighted tests of equal forecast accuracy," Econometric Institute Report 315, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    20. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2004. "Identification and normalization in Markov switching models of "business cycles"," Research Working Paper RWP 04-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    21. Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000. "Long Memory and Regime Switching," NBER Technical Working Papers 0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    22. Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2005. "Non-Linearity in the Canadian and US Labour Market: Univariate and Multivariate Evidence from a battery of tests," Discussion Paper Series 2005_8, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Aug 2005. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    23. M Cruz, 2003. "The Business Cycle in a Financially Deregulated Context: Theory and Evidence," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0331, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    24. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    25. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    26. D.J.C. Van Dijk & P.H. Franses & R. Paap, 2000. "A nonlinear long memory model for US unemployment," Econometric Institute Report 204, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  30. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1997. "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-355, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Harri, Ardian & Muhammad, Andrew & Anderson, John D., 2008. "Estimating a Demand System with Seasonally Differenced Data," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6427, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    2. Bharat Barot & Zan Yang, 2004. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the UK. Econometric analysis for the period 1970-1998," Macroeconomics 0409022, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    3. P.H. Franses & D. Van Dijk, 2001. "The Forecasting Performance of Various Models for Seasonality and Nonlinearity for Quarterly Industrial Production," Econometric Institute Report 222, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Bharat Barot, 2004. "Growth and Business Cycles for the Swedish Economy 1963-1999," Macroeconomics 0409017, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Gustavsson, Patrik & Nordström, Jonas, 1999. "The Impact of Seasonal Unit Roots and Vector ARMA Modeling on Forecasting Monthly Tourism Flows," Working Paper Series 150, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research, revised 01 Jul 2000. [Downloadable!]
    6. Barot, Bharat & Yang, Zan, 2002. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the United Kingdom: Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-1998," Working Paper 80, National Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Carmine Pappalardo & Gianfranco Piras, 2004. "Vector-Autoregression Approach to Forecast Italian Imports," ISAE Working Papers 42, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
    8. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 082, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Clements, M.P. & Smith, J., 1997. "Forecasting Seasonal UK Consumption Components," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 487, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Bharat Barot, 2005. "How Accurate Are The Swedish Forecasters On Gdp-Growth,Cpi- Inflation And Unemployment? (1993-2001)," Macroeconomics 0510017, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    12. Wing-Keung Wong & Guorui Bian, 2005. "Robust Estimation of Multiple Regression Model with asymmetric innovations and Its Applicability on Asset Pricing Model," Departmental Working Papers wp0508, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    13. Wing-Keung Wong & Guorui Bian, 2005. "Robust Estimation of Multiple Regression Model with Non-normal Error: Symmetric Distribution," Monash Economics Working Papers 09/05, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    14. CÁCERES HERNÁNDEZ, José Juan & CANO FERNÁNDEZ, Víctor J. & MARTÍN ÁLVAREZ, Francisco J., 2001. "Observaciones anómalas y contrastes de raíz unitaria en datos semanales," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 17, pages 85-105, Abril. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  31. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 1997. "The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 463-475, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. M.P. Clements & Ph.H.B.F. Franses & J. Smith, 1999. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Econometric Institute Report 141, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    3. Manzan, S. & Zerom, D., 2005. "A Multi-Step Forecast Density," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    4. Lanne, Markku, 1999. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the Presence of a Potential Regime Shift," Research Discussion Papers 20/1999, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. David McMillan, 2008. "Non-linear cointegration and adjustment: an asymmetric exponential smooth-transition model for US interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 591-606, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    6. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2003. "The Performance Of Setar Models : A Regime Conditional Evaluation Of Point, Interval And Density Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 663, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Leonardo Souza & Alvaro Veiga & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2002. "Evaluating the performance of GARCH models using White´s Reality Check," Textos para discussão 453, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    8. D. van Dijk & T. Terasvirta & P.H. Franses, 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Report 200, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Duarte, A. & Venetis, I. & Payá, I., 2004. "Curva de rendimientos y crecimiento de la producción real en la UEM: eficiencia y estabilidad predictiva./Yield Curve and Real Output Growth in the EMU: Efficiency and Predictive Stability," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 21, Abril. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    10. Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia & Denise R. Osborn & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2008. "Comparing Seasonal Forecasts of Industrial Production," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 102, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    11. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2001. "Evaluating non-linear models on point and interval forecasts: an application with exchange rate returns," Working Paper CRENoS 200110, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    12. Holt, Matthew T. & Craig, Lee A., 2006. "AJAE Appendix: Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Change in the U.S. Hog-Corn Ratio: A Time-Varying Star Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics Appendices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), February. [Downloadable!]
    13. Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2007. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Discussion Papers 5_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Hui Feng & Jia Liu, 2002. "A SETAR Model for Canadian GDP: Non-Linearities and Forecast Comparisons," Econometrics Working Papers 0206, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    15. P. Rothman & D.J.C. van Dijk & P.H.B.F. Franses, 1999. "A multivariate STAR analysis of the relationship between money and output," Econometric Institute Report 170, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Gianna Boero & Emanuela Marrocu, 2000. "La performance di modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un'applicazione con dati a diversa frequenza," Working Paper CRENoS 200014, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    17. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus, 2000. "Forecasting European GDP Using Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Models. A Warning," Economics Series 79, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
    18. David Peel & Ivan Paya & E Pavlidis, 2009. "Forecasting the Real Exchange Rate using a Long Span of Data. A Rematch: Linear vs Nonlinear," Working Papers 006075, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
    19. Saikkonen, Pentti & Ripatti, Antti, 1999. "On the Estimation of Euler Equations in the Presence of a Potential Regime Shift," Research Discussion Papers 6/1999, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    20. N Terui & HK van Dijk, 1999. "Combined forecasts from linear and nonlinear time series models," Econometric Institute Report 172, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  32. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 657-84, November.
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  33. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-94, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Issler, João Victor, 2008. "A Panel Data Approach to Economic Forecasting: The Bias-Corrected Average Forecast," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 668, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestwich, 1997. "The demand for broad money in the United Kingdom, 1878-1993," International Finance Discussion Papers 596, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Lance J. Bachmeier & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Predicting Inflation: Does The Quantity Theory Help?," Departmental Working Papers 200317, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Further Results on MSFE Encompassing," Working Papers 143, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    5. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market, regime shifts and international spillovers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 345-376. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Gustavsson, Patrik & Nordström, Jonas, 1999. "The Impact of Seasonal Unit Roots and Vector ARMA Modeling on Forecasting Monthly Tourism Flows," Working Paper Series 150, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research, revised 01 Jul 2000. [Downloadable!]
    7. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 082, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Robert F. Engle & Aaron D. Smith, 1998. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 98-03, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Clements, M.P. & Smith, J., 1997. "Forecasting Seasonal UK Consumption Components," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 487, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    12. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    13. David F. Hendry, 2002. "Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation and the Lucas Critique," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 67-68, pages 02, Juillet-D. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    15. Geoffrey Shuetrim & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-10, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Rebecca A Emerson & David Hendry, 1994. "An evaluation of forecasting using leading indicators," Economics Papers 5., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    17. Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    18. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Papers 2002-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    19. Arvid Raknerud, . "A State Space Approach for Estimating VAR Models for Panel Data with Latent Dynamic Components," Discussion Papers 295, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
    20. Neil R. Ericsson, David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestiwch, . "The UK Demand for Broad Money over the Long run," Economics Papers W29, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    21. Peter Spencer & Zhuoshi Liu, . "An Open-Economy Macro-Finance Model of Internatinal Interdependence: The OECD, US and the UK," Discussion Papers 09/16, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]

  34. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1995. "Macro-economic Forecasting and Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 1001-13, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Edward Nelson & Kalin Nikolov, . "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Bank of England working papers 148, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Rasmus Pilegaard & Alain Durre & Snorre Evjen, 2003. "Estimating risk premia in money market rates," Working Paper Series 221, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    3. Peaucelle, Irina, 1996. "Prévisions de court terme pour analyser les réformes en Russie (les)," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9610, CEPREMAP. [Downloadable!]
    4. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Dimitris A. Sideris & Fragiska K. Voumvaki, 2004. "Testing Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity under Exchange Rate Targeting," Working Papers 15, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Benjamin Smit, 2004. "A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa," Development and Comp Systems 0409055, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  35. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1995. "Forecasting in Cointegration Systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 127-46, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Boriss Siliverstovs & Tom Engsted & Niels Haldrup, 2003. "Long-Run Forecasting in Multicointegrated Systems," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 381, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Richard G. Anderson & Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 2001. "A vector error correction forecasting model of the U.S. economy," Working Papers 1998-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  36. Clements, Michael P, 1995. "Rationality and the Role of Judgement in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 410-20, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Dupuy,Arnaud, 2005. "An evaluation of labour market forecasts by type of education and occupation for 2002," Working Papers 002, Maastricht : ROA,Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market. [Downloadable!]
    3. Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136. [Downloadable!]
    4. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Philip Hans Franses & Henk Kranendonk & Debby Lanser, 2007. "On the optimality of expert-adjusted forecasts," CPB Discussion Papers 92, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    6. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 1994. "Can Econometrics Improve Economic Forecasting?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 130(III), pages 267-298, September. [Downloadable!]

  37. Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Dimitrios Sideris, 2004. "Testing for Long-Run PPP in a System Context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan," Working Papers 19, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    2. Farrokh Nourzad, 1997. "The Short-And Long-Run Relationships Between The Exchange Rate Of The Dollar And Producer Prices In The U.S," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 59-71, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Francis Y. Kumah & John Matovu, 2005. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance," IMF Working Papers 05/171, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    4. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2000. "Wages, Prices, Productivity, Inflation and Unemployment in Italy 1970-1994," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0911, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    6. Pritha Mitra, 2006. "Has Government Investment Crowded Out Private Investment in India?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 337-341, May. [Downloadable!]
    7. Matteo Manera, 2005. "Modeling Factor Demands with SEM and VAR: An Empirical Comparison," Working Papers 2005.47, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Dimitris A. Sideris & Fragiska K. Voumvaki, 2004. "Testing Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity under Exchange Rate Targeting," Working Papers 15, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Padma Desai, 2006. "Why Is Russian GDP Growth Slowing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 342-347, May. [Downloadable!]
    10. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, . "Small system modelling of real wages, inflation, unemployment and output per capita in Italy 1970-1994," Working Papers 188, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Pillai N., Vijayamohanan, 2008. "In Quest of Truth: The War of Methods in Economics," MPRA Paper 8866, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    12. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, . "A Markov-Switching Vector Equilibrium Correction Model of the UK Labour Market," Working Papers 185, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, . "Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland, and the UK," Working Papers 145, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

Chapters

  1. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2006. "Forecasting with Breaks," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A., 2008. "Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0814, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    3. David F. Hendry & Kirstin Hubrich, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kim, Jae H., 2006. "Quantile Forecasts of Daily Exchange Rate Returns from Forecasts of Realized Volatility," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 777, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Issler, João Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira, 2007. "A Panel Data Approach to Economic Forecasting: The Bias-Corrected Average Forecast," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 642, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Economic Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:

Books

  1. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2005. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new member states of the European Union," Working Paper Series 482, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    2. Neil R. Ericsson, 2001. "Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    3. Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "A Comparison of Multi-step GDP Forecasts for South Africa," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Håvard Hungnes, 2001. "Estimating and Restricting Growth Rates and Cointegration Means With Applications to Consumption and Money Demand," Discussion Papers 309, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
    5. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    6. Guillaume Chevillon, 2006. "Multi-step Forecasting in Unstable Economies: Robustness Issues in the Presence of Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 257, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    7. Kirstin Hubrich, 2003. "Forecasting euro area inflation: does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Working Paper Series 247, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Guillaume Chevillon, 2005. "Direct multi-step estimation and forecasting," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-10, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2004. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables for the Acceding Countries," Working Papers 260, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    10. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2000. "Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 1302, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 29 Jan 2002. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Alasdair Scott & George Kapetanios & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Making a match: combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modelling," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 462, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Marc Wildi & Bernd Schips, 2004. "Signal Extraction: How (In)efficient are Model-Based Approaches? An Empirical Study Based on TRAMO/SEATS and Census X-12-ARIMA," KOF Working papers 04-96, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    13. Anyfantakis, Costas & Caporale, Guglielmo M. & Pittis, Nikitas, 2004. "Parameter Instability and Forecasting Performance. A Monte Carlo Study," Economics Series 160, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
    14. David F. Hendry & Kirstin Hubrich, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    15. Dees, S. & di Mauro, F. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0518, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Sørensen, Nils Karl, 2002. "Modelling and seasonal forecasting of monthly hotel nights in Denmark," ERSA conference papers ersa02p114, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
    17. M Sensier & M Artis & C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn, 2002. "Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 11, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira & Luiz Ivan de Melo Castelar, 2005. "Forecasting Quarterly Brazilian Gdp Growth Rate With Linear And Nonlinear Diffusion Index Models," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
    19. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2005. "Euro Area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics," ISAE Working Papers 60, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    20. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 529, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    21. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Instability and Non-Linearity in the EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 3312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    22. Niels Haldrup & Morten O. Nielsen, 2004. "A Regime Switching Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Economics Working Papers 2004-2, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    23. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2006. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Working Paper Series 196, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    24. C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2000. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 02, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    25. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    26. Luis Fernando Melo & Martha Misas A., . "Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles," Borradores de Economia 283, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    27. Anindya BANERJEE & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2002. "Are There Any Reliable Leading Indicators for US Inflation and GDP Growth?," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/21, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    28. David I. Harvey & Terence C. Mills, 2002. "Unit roots and double smooth transitions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 675-683, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    29. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 802, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    30. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    31. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    32. Michael Artis & Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Factor forecasts for the UK," Working Papers 203, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    33. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Issues In Adopting Dsge Models For Use In The Policy Process," CAMA Working Papers 2006-10, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    34. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    35. Guillaume Chevillon & David Hendry, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 196, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    36. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2000. "Wages, Prices, Productivity, Inflation and Unemployment in Italy 1970-1994," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0911, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    37. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of conditional predictive ability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 572, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    38. Jumah, Adusei & Kunst, Robert M., 2005. "Forecasting Aggregate Demand in West African Economies. The Influence of Immigrant Remittance Flows and of Asymmetric Error Correction," Economics Series 168, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
    39. Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, . "Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information," Working Papers 201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    40. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "Are the Baltic Countries Ready to Adopt the Euro? A Generalised Purchasing Power Parity Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    41. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Closed Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 801, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    42. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2003. "Laws and Limits of Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1397, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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    43. Domenico Sartore & Lucia Trevisan & Michele Trova & Francesca Volo, 2002. "US dollar/Euro exchange rate: a monthly econometric model for forecasting," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 480-501, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    44. Katarina Juselius & Søren Johansen, 2005. "Extracting Information from the Data: A Popperian View on Empirical Macro," Discussion Papers 05-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    45. David Hendry, 2000. "A General Forecast-error Taxonomy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    46. Heather M. Anderson & Chin Nam Low, 2004. "Random Walk Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised May 2005. [Downloadable!]
    47. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2003. "Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth," Working Papers 235, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    48. Antoni Espasa & Rebeca Albacete, 2004. "CONSIDERATIONS ON ECONOMIC FORECASTING: METHOD DEVELOPED IN THE BULLETIN OF EU and US INFLATION AND MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws045013, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
    49. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    50. Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    51. Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira & Herman Bierens & Ivan Castelar, 2005. "Forecasting Quarterly Brazilian GDP Growth Rate With Linear and NonLinear Diffusion Index Models," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 6(3), pages 261-292. [Downloadable!]
    52. Koskinen, Lasse & Öller, Lars-Erik, 2001. "A Classifying Procedure for Signaling Turning Points," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 427, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    53. Ralf Becker & Walter Enders & A. Stan Hurn, 2001. "Testing for Time Dependence in Parameters," Research Paper Series 58, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    54. David Hendry & Maozu Lu & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Model Identification and Non-unique Structure," Economics Papers 2002-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    55. John G. Fernald, 2005. "Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and the contractionary effects of technology improvements," Working Paper Series 2005-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    56. D.J. Van Dijk & P.H. Franses, 2003. "Selecting a nonlinear time series model using weighted tests of equal forecast accuracy," Econometric Institute Report 315, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    57. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Closed Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 797, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    58. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, . "Small system modelling of real wages, inflation, unemployment and output per capita in Italy 1970-1994," Working Papers 188, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    59. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2003. "Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2003018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
    60. Luis Fernando Melo & Héctor Núñez, . "Combinación de Pronósticos de la Inflación en Presencia de cambios Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 286, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    61. Katarina Juselius & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," Discussion Papers 00-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    62. Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and Estimating Multiple Change-point Models with an Unknown Number of Change-points," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/31, Department of Economics, University of Leicester. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    63. Roberto Ricciuti, 2004. "Punishment and Counter-punishment in Public Goods Games: Can we still govern ourselves?," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/06, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
    64. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 800, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    65. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2007. "Forecasting UK Inflation: the Roles of Structural Breaks and Time Disaggregation," Economics Series Working Papers 309, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    66. Victor Bystrov, 2006. "Forecasting Emerging Market Indicators: Brazil and Russia," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/12, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    67. Marcelo C. Medeiros & Timo Terasvirta & Gianluigi Rech, 2002. "Building Neural Network Models for Time Series: A Statistical Approach," Textos para discussão 461, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    68. David Hendry, 2000. "Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation, and the Lucas Critique," Economics Papers 2002-W8, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    69. Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Prior elicitation in multiple change-point models," Staff Reports 197, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    70. Abdul Qayyum & Faiz Bilquees, 2005. "P-Star Model: A Leading Indicator of Inflation for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 117-129. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    71. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 3595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    72. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Papers 2002-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    73. Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "Evaluating a Central Bank’s Recent Forecast Failure," Memorandum 22/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    74. R. Velazquez & A.E. Noriega & L.M. Soria, 2004. "International Evidence on Monetary Neutrality Under Broken Trend Stationary Models," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 57, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    75. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    76. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, . "A Markov-Switching Vector Equilibrium Correction Model of the UK Labour Market," Working Papers 185, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    77. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H., 1999. "Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9910, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    78. Eitrheim,O. & Jansen,E.S. & Nymoen,R., 2000. "Progress from forecast failure : the Norwegian consumption function," Memorandum 32/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    79. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2006. "Belief merging and revision under social influence: An explanation for the volatility clustering puzzle," MPRA Paper 657, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

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This page was last updated on 2009-12-10.

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