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Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate their Differences?

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  • Michael P. Clements

Abstract

Application of the Bernhardt, Campello and Kutsoati (2006) test of herding to the calendar-year annual output growth and inflation forecasts suggests forecasters tend to exaggerate their differences, except at the shortest horizon when they tend to herd. We consider whether these types of behaviour can help to explain the puzzle that professional forecasters sometimes make point predictions and histogram forecasts which are mutually inconsistent.
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  • Michael P. Clements, 2015. "Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate their Differences?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 649-660, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:34:y:2015:i:8:p:649-660
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    Cited by:

    1. Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2017. "Appropriate monetary policy and forecast disagreement at the FOMC," Discussion Papers 39/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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