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The Australian real-time fiscal database: A overview and an illustration of its use in analysing planned and realised fiscal policies

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Lee
  • James Morley
  • Kalvinder Shields
  • Madeleine Sui-Lay Tan

Abstract

This paper describes a fiscal database for Australia including measures of government spending, revenue, deficits, debt and various sub-aggregates as initially published and subsequently revised. The data vintages are collated from various sources and provide a comprehensive description of the Australian fiscal environment as experienced in real-time. Methods are described which exploit the richness of the real-time datasets and they are illustrated through an analysis of the extent to which stated fiscal plans are realised in practice and through the estimation of fiscal multipliers which draw a distinction between policy responses and policy initiatives. We find predictable differences between plans and actual fiscal policy, consistent with a desire of the government to appear more prudent than in reality, and a larger multiplier for policy initiatives than implementation errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Lee & James Morley & Kalvinder Shields & Madeleine Sui-Lay Tan, 2019. "The Australian real-time fiscal database: A overview and an illustration of its use in analysing planned and realised fiscal policies," CAMA Working Papers 2019-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    2. Kevin Lee & James Morley & Kian Ong & Kalvinder Shields, 2018. "Measuring the fiscal multiplier when plans take time to implement," Discussion Papers 2018/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real-time; Australian Database; Revisions; Fiscal Policy; Government Spending; Government Revenues;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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