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Densidad de predicción basada en momentos condicionados y máxima entropía : aplicación a la predicción de potencia eólica

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  • Bermejo Mancera, Miguel Ángel
  • Peña, Daniel
  • Sánchez, Ismael

Abstract

El cálculo de predicciones puntuales junto con su incertidumbre en forma de intervalo es, en la mayoría de aplicaciones, insuficiente. Especialmente cuando estemos asumiendo no linealidad en los datos, puesto que en estos casos, podrían existir incluso cambios en la distribución. Por ello será necesario, además de la predicción puntual, obtener una estimación de la densidad condicionada de la variable en el futuro dado su comportamiento actual, es decir, la densidad predictiva. En este trabajo proponemos una estimación de la densidad predictiva empleando diferentes distribuciones paramétricas como son la Normal Truncada, la Normal Censurada, la Beta y la de Máxima Entropía. Dichas distribuciones serán calculadas empleando los momentos condicionados estimados mediante un método de estimación recursiva. Se aplica el procedimiento a datos provenientes de energía eólica

Suggested Citation

  • Bermejo Mancera, Miguel Ángel & Peña, Daniel & Sánchez, Ismael, 2011. "Densidad de predicción basada en momentos condicionados y máxima entropía : aplicación a la predicción de potencia eólica," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws111813, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws111813
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    Densidad predictiva;

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