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Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions

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Author Info

  • James E. Matheson

    (Stanford Research Institute)

  • Robert L. Winkler

    (Indiana University)

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    Abstract

    Personal, or subjective, probabilities are used as inputs to many inferential and decision-making models, and various procedures have been developed for the elicitation of such probabilities. Included among these elicitation procedures are scoring rules, which involve the computation of a score based on the assessor's stated probabilities and on the event that actually occurs. The development of scoring rules has, in general, been restricted to the elicitation of discrete probability distributions. In this paper, families of scoring rules for the elicitation of continuous probability distributions are developed and discussed.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.22.10.1087
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 22 (1976)
    Issue (Month): 10 (June)
    Pages: 1087-1096

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:22:y:1976:i:10:p:1087-1096

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