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Does The Market Anticipate Smoothing In Usda Crop Production Forecasts?

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  • Isengildina, Olga
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Good, Darrel L.

Abstract

This study examines whether market participants anticipate the predictable component in USDA revisions of corn and soybean production forecasts during 1970/71 through 2003/04 marketing years. The analysis revealed that markets consistently under-predicted October corn production revisions and over-predicted September soybean production revisions. These biases may be attributable to inefficient use of information about smoothing in USDA revisions. In all other cases market analysts seemed to be aware of USDA smoothing practices and generally efficiently incorporated this information into their own forecasts.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20145
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO with number 20145.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea04:20145

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Keywords: Marketing;

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  1. Clements, M.C., 1996. "Evaluating the Rationality of Fixed-Event Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 457, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  2. Jeffrey B. Mills & Ted C. Schroeder, 2004. "Are cattle on feed report revisions random and does industry anticipate them?," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 363-374.
  3. Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "Are Revisions To Usda Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19027, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  4. Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2003. "An Evaluation of Crop Forecast Accuracy for Corn and Soybeans: USDA and Private Information Agencies," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(01), April.
  5. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
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