Does The Market Anticipate Smoothing In Usda Crop Production Forecasts?
AbstractThis study examines whether market participants anticipate the predictable component in USDA revisions of corn and soybean production forecasts during 1970/71 through 2003/04 marketing years. The analysis revealed that markets consistently under-predicted October corn production revisions and over-predicted September soybean production revisions. These biases may be attributable to inefficient use of information about smoothing in USDA revisions. In all other cases market analysts seemed to be aware of USDA smoothing practices and generally efficiently incorporated this information into their own forecasts.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO with number 20145.
Date of creation: 2004
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- Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004.
"Are Revisions To Usda Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?,"
2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri
19027, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Olga Isengildina & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good, 2006. "Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1091-1104.
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