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Non-linear forecasting of stock returns: Does volume help?

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  • McMillan, David G.
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 23 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 115-126

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:23:y:2007:i:1:p:115-126

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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    1. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator," NBER Working Papers 8816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Leung, Mark T. & Daouk, Hazem & Chen, An-Sing, 2000. "Forecasting stock indices: a comparison of classification and level estimation models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 173-190.
    4. Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998. "Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff General Research Papers 1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 441-479, December.
    7. Allan Timmermann & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 1999. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp335, Financial Markets Group.
    8. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1996. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical Setar Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 464, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    9. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 159-91, January.
    10. Fang, Yue & Xu, Daming, 2003. "The predictability of asset returns: an approach combining technical analysis and time series forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 369-385.
    11. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
    12. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1997. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 6324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Martens, M. & Kofman, P. & Vorst, T.C.F., 1995. "A Threshold Error Correction Model for Intraday Futures and Index Returns," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/95, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    14. Campbell, John Y & Grossman, Sanford J & Wang, Jiang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 905-39, November.
    15. Wang, Changyun & Chin, Shengtyng, 2004. "Profitability of return and volume-based investment strategies in China's stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 541-564, November.
    16. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
    17. Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
      • Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
    18. Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Racine, Jeff, 2002. "Entropy and predictability of stock market returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 291-312, March.
    19. Hamao, Yasushi & Campbell, John, 1992. "Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Scholarly Articles 3207694, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    20. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. " Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-81, March.
    21. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October.
    22. Brennan, Michael J. & Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1998. "Alternative factor specifications, security characteristics, and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 345-373, September.
    23. Shively, Philip A., 2003. "The nonlinear dynamics of stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 505-517.
    24. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. " Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-28, September.
    25. David G. McMillan, 2003. "Non-linear Predictability of UK Stock Market Returns," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 557-573, December.
    26. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-28, September.
    27. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Kumar, Kuldeep, 1992. "Some recent developments in non-linear time series modelling, testing, and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 135-156, October.
    28. David McMillan, 2001. "Non-Linear Predictability of Stock Market Returns: Evidence from Non-Parametric and Threshold Models," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 200102, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews.
    29. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-66.
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    Cited by:
    1. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2012. "Revisiting the empirical linkages between stock returns and trading volume," MPRA Paper 36897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wu-Jen Chuang & Liang-Yuh Ou-Yang & Wen-Chen Lo, 2009. "Nonlinear Market Dynamics Between Stock Returns And Trading Volume: Empirical Evidences From Asian Stock Markets," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 56, pages 621-634, November.
    3. Juan PiƱeiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. Yu-Hau Hu & Shun-Jen Hsueh, 2013. "A Study of yhe Nonlinear Relationships among the U.S. and Asian Stock Markets during Financial Crises," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 134-147, December.
    5. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Brooks, Robert D., 2010. "Does volume help in predicting stock returns? An analysis of the Australian market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 146-157, June.
    6. Michael Scholz & Stefan Sperlich & Jens Perch Nielsen, 2012. "Nonparametric prediction of stock returns with generated bond yields," Graz Economics Papers 2012-10, University of Graz, Department of Economics.

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