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Volume and Autocovariances in Short-Horizon Individual Security Returns

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  • Conrad, Jennifer S
  • Hameed, Allaudeen
  • Niden, Cathy
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    Abstract

    This article tests for the relations between trading volume and subsequent returns patterns in individual securities' short-horizon returns that are suggested by such articles as L. Blume, D. Easley, and M. O'Hara (1994) and J. Y. Campbell, S. J. Grossman, and J. Wang (1993). Using a variant of B. Lehmann's (1990) contrarian trading strategy, the authors find strong evidence of a relation between trading activity and subsequent autocovariances in weekly returns. Specifically, high-transaction securities experience price reversals, while the returns of low-transactions securities are positively autocovarying. Overall, information on trading activity appears to be an important predictor of the returns of individual securities. Copyright 1994 by American Finance Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 49 (1994)
    Issue (Month): 4 (September)
    Pages: 1305-29

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:49:y:1994:i:4:p:1305-29

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    Cited by:
    1. Simon Gervais & Ron Kaniel & Dan Mingelgrin, . "The High Volume Return Premium," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 01-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    2. Michael Cooper & David H. Downs, 1999. "Real Estate Securities and a Filter-based, Short-term Trading Strategy," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 313-334.
    3. Leslie A. Jeng & Andrew Metrick & Richard Zeckhauser, 1999. "The Profits to Insider Trading: A Performance-Evaluation Perspective," NBER Working Papers 6913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Savor, Pavel G., 2012. "Stock returns after major price shocks: The impact of information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 635-659.
    5. Cetin Ciner, 2003. "Dynamic Linkages Between Trading Volume and Price Movements: Evidence for Small Firm Stocks," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 8(1), pages 87-102, Spring.
    6. Kanas, Angelos & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2005. "A cointegration approach to the lead-lag effect among size-sorted equity portfolios," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 181-201.
    7. Wahal, Sunil & Yavuz, M. Deniz, 2013. "Style investing, comovement and return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 136-154.
    8. Edward Nelling & Joseph Gyourko, 1998. "The Predictability of Equity REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 251-268.
    9. Wang, Yuming & Ma, Jinpeng, 2014. "Excess volatility and the cross-section of stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-16.
    10. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Brooks, Robert D., 2010. "Does volume help in predicting stock returns? An analysis of the Australian market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 146-157, June.
    11. KUDRYAVTSEV Andrey, 2012. "Early To Rise: When Opening Stock Returns Are Higher Than Daily Returns?," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 7(3), pages 58-73, December.
    12. Eric Ghysels & João Pereira, 2003. "On Portfolio Choice, Liquidity, and Short Selling: A Nonparametric Investigation," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-27, CIRANO.
    13. Scholtz, Hellmut D., 2002. "Eine optimierte Investmentstrategie für Anlagen zur Alterssicherung bei abhängigen Ertragsentwicklungen," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 165-170.
    14. Leslie A. Jeng & Andrew Metrick & Richard Zeckhauser, . "Estimating the Returns to Insider Trading," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 19-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    15. repec:rej:journl:v:16:y:2013:i:50:p:51-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Order Imbalance and Individual Stock Returns," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt34k8f3pv, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    17. Lei, Xiaoyan & Zhou, Yuegang & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2013. "Capital gains, illiquidity, and stock returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 273-293.
    18. Amini, Shima & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "A review of the international literature on the short term predictability of stock prices conditional on large prior price changes: Microstructure, behavioral and risk related explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    19. Hao FANG & Yang-Cheng Lu & Hwey-Yun Yau & Yen-Hsien Lee, 2013. "Stock Characteristics Herded By Foreign Investors With Higher Abnormal Returns In The Taiwan Stock Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 232-245, December.

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