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Herding behavior of business cycle forecasters

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  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph
  • Silgoner, Maria
  • Wörz, Julia

Abstract

Using a large international data set, we analyze whether business cycle forecasters herd or anti-herd. In general, we find evidence for anti-herding, i.e. forecasters appear to scatter their forecasts deliberately away from the forecasts of others. Anti-herding tends to be more prevalent for the longer (next year) horizon. There is some evidence for a reduced level of anti-herding at times of increased forecast uncertainty and when the forecasts are being revised more substantially.

Suggested Citation

  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Silgoner, Maria & Wörz, Julia, 2016. "Herding behavior of business cycle forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:32:y:2016:i:1:p:23-33
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.02.004
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    11. Boskabadi, Elahe, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and forecast bias in the survey of professional forecasters," MPRA Paper 115081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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