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Calibration and Resolution Diagnostics for Bank of England Density Forecasts

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Author Info
John Galbraith ()
Simon van Norden ()

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Abstract

This paper applies new diagnostics to the Bank of England’s pioneering density forecasts (fan charts). We compute their implicit probability forecast for annual rates of inflation and output growth that exceed a given threshold (in this case, the target inflation rate and 2.5% respectively.) Unlike earlier work on these forecasts, we measure both their calibration and their resolution, providing both formal tests and graphical interpretations of the results. These results both reinforce earlier evidence on some of the limitations of these forecasts and provide new evidence on their information content.

Cet étude développe et applique des nouvelles techniques pour diagnostiquer les prévisions de densité de la Banque d’Angleterre (leur “fan charts”). Nous calculons leurs probabilités implicites pour des taux d’inflation et de croissance du PIB qui dépassent des seuils critiques (soit le taux d’inflation ciblé, soit 2.5%.) En contraste avec des travaux antérieurs sur ces prévisions, nous gaugeons leur calibration aussi bien que leur résolution, en donnant des tests formels et des interprétations graphiques. Les résultats renforcent des conclusions déjà existant sur les limites de ces prévisions et ils donnent de nouvelles évidences sur leurs valeurs ajoutées.

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Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2009s-36.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2009s-36

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Related research
Keywords: calibration; density forecast; probability forecast; resolu; calibration; prévisions de densité; probabilités implicites; résolution.;

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  1. Tilmann Gneiting & Fadoua Balabdaoui & Adrian E. Raftery, 2007. "Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(2), pages 243-268. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael P. Clements, 2004. "Evaluating the Bank of England Density Forecasts of Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 844-866, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Casillas-Olvera, Gabriel & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Probability forecasting and central bank accountability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 223-234, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "Forecast content and content horizons for some important macroeconomic time series," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 935-953, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
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  6. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989. "Scoring the Leading Indicators," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-91, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. James Mitchell & Wallis, K.F., 2008. "Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness," NIESR Discussion Papers 320, National Institute of Economic and Social Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "Predictive Density Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

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