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An estimation of U.S. gasoline demand: A smooth time-varying cointegration approach

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  • Park, Sung Y.
  • Zhao, Guochang
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    Abstract

    In this paper the U.S. gasoline demand from 1976 to 2008 is estimated using a time-varying cointegrating regression. We find that price elasticity increased rapidly during the late 1970s and then decreased until 1987. After a relatively small-scaled "increase-decrease" cycle from 1987 to 2000, the price elasticity rose again after 2000. The time-varying change of the elasticities may be explained by the proportion of gasoline consumption to income and fluctuation of the degree of necessity. The result of the error correction model shows that a deviation from a long-run equilibrium is corrected quickly, and the welfare analysis illustrates there may be a gain by shifting the tax scheme from income tax to gasoline tax.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 110-120

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:1:p:110-120

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

    Related research

    Keywords: Gasoline demand Time-varying coefficient Cointegration Canonical cointegration regression Error-correction model Deadweight loss;

    References

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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Katarzyna Leszkiewicz-Kędzior, 2011. "Modelling Fuel Prices. An I(1) Analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 3(2), pages 75-95, June.
    2. Türkekul, Berna & UnakItan, Gökhan, 2011. "A co-integration analysis of the price and income elasticities of energy demand in Turkish agriculture," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2416-2423, May.
    3. Lin, Boqiang & Xie, Chunping, 2013. "Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 472-482.
    4. A. Talha Yalta, 2013. "The Dynamics of Road Energy Demand and Illegal Fuel Activity in Turkey: A Rolling Window Analysis," Working Papers 1304, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2013.
    5. Kyoung-Min Lim & Myunghwan Kim & Chang Seob Kim & Seung-Hoon Yoo, 2012. "Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticities of Diesel Demand in Korea," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(12), pages 5055-5064, November.
    6. Wittmann, Nadine, 2014. "Regulating gasoline retail markets: The case of Germany," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    7. Besma Talbi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of Energy Demand in Tunisia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 452-458.
    8. Zuo, Haomiao & Park, Sung Y., 2011. "Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 330-343, September.
    9. Lemoine, Derek, 2013. "Escape from Third-Best: Rating Emissions for Intensity Standards," 2014 Allied Social Science Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 3-5, 2014, Philadelphia, PA 161656, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. repec:wyi:journl:002133 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Yoosoon Chang & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park & Sungkeun Park, 2014. "Time-varying Long-run Income and Output Elasticities of Electricity Demand," Working Papers 1409, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    12. Neto, David, 2012. "Testing and estimating time-varying elasticities of Swiss gasoline demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1755-1762.

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