IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spt/stecon/v8y2019i4f8_4_6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating Forecast Performance of SETAR Model using Gross Domestic Product of Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Akintunde
  • M.O
  • Kgosi
  • P.M.
  • Agunloye
  • O.K.
  • Olalude G. A.

Abstract

This paper examines the structural changes emanating from Gross domestic product of Nigeria from 1980 to 2017. Out of sample forecast performances of non-linear time series SETAR model were examined. All necessary theoretical frameworks were stated and stationarity tests conducted before the model setting. Out-of-sample forecast performances between the standard linear ARIMA model and non-linear SETAR model were compared. The Empirical illustration shows that the non-linear SETAR model has superior forecasting power than linear ARIMA model using Gross domestic product of Nigeria. It suffices to recommend the non-linear model for would be policy makers, investors and academia for forecasting. However, this does not foreclose the fact that the linear ARIMA forecast model could still be used by forecasters in the absence of SETAR and other powerful non-linear model. Â

Suggested Citation

  • Akintunde & M.O & Kgosi & P.M. & Agunloye & O.K. & Olalude G. A., 2019. "Evaluating Forecast Performance of SETAR Model using Gross Domestic Product of Nigeria," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(4), pages 1-6.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:stecon:v:8:y:2019:i:4:f:8_4_6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.scienpress.com/Upload/JSEM%2fVol%208_4_6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terui, Nobuhiko & van Dijk, Herman K., 2002. "Combined forecasts from linear and nonlinear time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 421-438.
    2. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2001. "Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 133-148, February.
    3. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimitrios I. Vortelinos & Konstantinos Gkillas, 2018. "Intraday realised volatility forecasting and announcements," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 88-118.
    2. Clements, Michael P. & Franses, Philip Hans & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 169-183.
    3. Fredj Jawadi & Georges Prat, 2009. "Nonlinear Stock Price Adjustment in the G7 Countries," Working Papers hal-04140874, HAL.
    4. Khémiri, Wafa & Noubbigh, Hédi, 2020. "Size-threshold effect in debt-firm performance nexus in the sub-Saharan region: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 335-344.
    5. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    6. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Forecasting and combining competing models of exchange rate determination," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3455-3480.
    7. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002.
    8. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2002_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2002.
    9. Sibel Cengiz & Afsin Sahin, 2014. "Modelling nonlinear behavior of labor force participation rate by STAR: An application for Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(1), pages 113-127, April.
    10. repec:wyi:journl:002087 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Bonciani, Dario, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks: it's a matter of habit," MPRA Paper 59370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Mohamed CHIKHI & Claude DIEBOLT, 2022. "Testing the weak form efficiency of the French ETF market with the LSTAR-ANLSTGARCH approach using a semiparametric estimation," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 13, pages 228-253, June.
    13. Bergin, Paul R. & Glick, Reuven & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2017. "“Conditional PPP” and real exchange rate convergence in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 78-92.
    14. Magdalena Osińska & Tadeusz Kufel & Marcin Błażejowski & Paweł Kufel, 2020. "Modeling mechanism of economic growth using threshold autoregression models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1381-1430, March.
    15. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah & Midi, Habshah, 2008. "Monetary exchange rate model: supportive evidence from nonlinear testing procedures," MPRA Paper 7293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2017. "Unemployment hysteresis and structural change in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1415-1440, December.
    17. Sandra Eickmeier & Norbert Metiu & Esteban Prieto, 2016. "Time-varying volatility, financial intermediation and monetary policy," CAMA Working Papers 2016-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Gengnan Chiang & Chin-Chi Liu & Hui-Hsuan Liu, 2022. "The Threshold Effect of Regulatory Quality on the Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Asian Countries," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(1), pages 1-6.
    19. Rodney W. Strachan & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2013. "Evidence On Features Of A Dsge Business Cycle Model From Bayesian Model Averaging," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(1), pages 385-402, February.
    20. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2015. "Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 15-31.
    21. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spt:stecon:v:8:y:2019:i:4:f:8_4_6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eleftherios Spyromitros-Xioufis (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.scienpress.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.