The forecast ability of risk-neutral densities of foreign exchange
AbstractWe estimate the process underlying the pricing of American options by using higher-order lattices combined with a multigrid method. This paper also tests whether the risk-neutral densities given from American options provide a good forecasting tool. We use a nonparametric test of the densities that is based on the inverse probability functions and is modified to account for correlation across time between our random variables, which are uniform under the null hypothesis. We find that the densities based on the Americanoption markets for foreign exchange do quite well for the forecasting period over which the options are thickly traded. Further, simple models that fit the densities do about as well as more sophisticated models.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies with number 2005,05.
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Risk-neutral densities from option prices; American exchange rate options; Evaluating Density Forecasts; Pentionominal tree; Density evaluation; Overlapping data problem --;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-08-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2006-08-05 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FMK-2006-08-05 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-FOR-2006-08-05 (Forecasting)
- NEP-IFN-2006-08-05 (International Finance)
- NEP-MST-2006-08-05 (Market Microstructure)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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