Foreign Exchange Market Volatility Information: An Investigation of Real-Dollar Exchange Rate
AbstractPrice distributions estimation has become a relevant subject for risk and pricing literature. Special concern resides on tail probabilities, which usually presents more severe observations than those predicted by Normal distributions. This work aims to verify whether the volatility implied in dollar-real options contains useful information about unexpected large-magnitude returns. Implied volatility is also checked as a predictor for realized volatility. Our results indicate that implied volatilities indeed provide useful information on unusual returns and also work as a good predictor for observed volatility. Finally, we implement an early-warning system and implied volatilities seem to signalize large-magnitude returns.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 174.
Date of creation: Aug 2008
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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-09-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2008-09-13 (International Finance)
- NEP-MST-2008-09-13 (Market Microstructure)
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