IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/e/c/pgu174.html

Pablo A. Guerron

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2010. "Reading the recent monetary history of the United States, 1959-2007," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(May), pages 311-338.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Mi educación sentimental en 10 (12) libros (II)
      by Cives in Politikon on 2012-05-21 02:27:41
  2. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramirez, 2011. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The impact of fiscal uncertainty
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-09-09 19:07:00
    2. Two papers on policy uncertainty and learning
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2011-08-27 16:10:04
  3. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Las raíces políticas de la crisis del Euro
      by Cives in Politikon on 2012-05-22 16:48:47
    2. El acuerdo del Eurogrupo: Vivir en la Incertidumbre
      by Luis Garicano in Nada Es Gratis on 2012-07-10 15:04:44
  4. Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Thorsten Drautzburg, 2017. "Political Distribution Risk and Business Cycles," 2017 Meeting Papers 1201, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Political Distribution Risk and Business Cycles
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2018-01-16 08:47:03

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks: Comment (AER 2014) in ReplicationWiki ()
    2. Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks (AER 2011) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana, 2010. "What you match does matter: the effects of data on DSGE estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 774-804.

    Mentioned in:

    1. What you match does matter: the effects of data on DSGE estimation (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010) in ReplicationWiki ()
  3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity (AER 2015) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Oleksandr Shchur & Abdul Fatir Ansari & Caner Turkmen & Lorenzo Stella & Nick Erickson & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Michael Bohlke-Schneider & Yuyang Wang, 2025. "fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1101, Boston College Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Alessio Brini, 2026. "Forecasting Realized Volatility with Time Series Foundation Models: A Comparison with Econometric Benchmarks," Papers 2607.05291, arXiv.org.

  2. Drautzburg, Thorsten & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron, Pablo & Oosthuizen, Dick, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 19270, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Snellman, 2026. "Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Analysis With a Transformer Network," Papers 2601.12039, arXiv.org.

  3. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Alexey Khazanov & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Financial and Macroeconomic Data Through the Lens of a Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Tony Chernis & Niko Hauzenberger & Haroon Mumtaz & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2025. "A Bayesian Gaussian Process Dynamic Factor Model," Papers 2509.04928, arXiv.org.

  4. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2022. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," Discussion Papers 2215, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

    Cited by:

    1. Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai & Alexis Akira Toda, 2022. "Leverage, Endogenous Unbalanced Growth, and Asset Price Bubbles," Papers 2211.13100, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2026.
    2. Hirano, Tomohiro & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2024. "Bubble economics," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    3. Makoto WATANABE & Yu Awaya & kohei Iwasaki, 2024. "Money is the roof of asset bubbles," CIGS Working Paper Series 24-001E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    4. Matteo Aquilina & Peter Cincinelli & Giovanni Urga, 2026. "Asset price bubbles and systemic risk in money market funds," BIS Working Papers 1358, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Makoto WATANABE & Yu Awaya & Jihwan Do, 2025. "Bubbles and Collateral," CIGS Working Paper Series 25-013E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    6. Houssam Boughabi, 2025. "A study of the German bubble and the DAX index volatility persistence: FIGARCHS and economical growth," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(6), pages 1-14, June.
    7. Gomes Orlando, 2024. "Economic Growth in the Age of Ubiquitous Threats: How Global Risks are Reshaping Growth Theory," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-15, January.
    8. Ninik SRIJANI & Siti AISYAH & Lilik Sri HARIANI, 2023. "Presidential Election and SME Transformation in Indonesia: The Influence of Policies and Political Dynamics," CECCAR Business Review, Body of Expert and Licensed Accountants of Romania (CECCAR), vol. 4(10), pages 60-73, October.
    9. Shunsuke Haba & Yuichiro Ito & Shogo Nakano & Takahiro Yamanaka, 2024. "Assessing the Long-Term Impact of Monetary Policy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-19, Bank of Japan.
    10. Shim, Jae Hun, 2025. "Bubbles, banking and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    11. Gouel, Christophe & Ma, Qingyin & Stachurski, John, 2024. "Interest rate dynamics and commodity prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    12. Michau, Jean-Baptiste & Ono, Yoshiyasu & Schlegl, Matthias, 2023. "Wealth preference and rational bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).

  5. Ryan Chahrour & Vito Cormun & Pierre De Leo & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Rosen Valchev, 2021. "Exchange Rate Disconnect Revisited," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1041, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 2023.

    Cited by:

    1. Cormun, Vito & Ristolainen, Kim, 2024. "Exchange rate narratives," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2024, Bank of Finland.
    2. Yang Yang & Ren Zhang, 2025. "Combining Proxies and Narrative Sign Restrictions: Revisiting the Effects of Technology Shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 554-568, August.
    3. Calì, Massimiliano & Graciano, Simón Caicedo & Ghose, Devaki & Montfaucon, Angella Faith & Ruta, Michele, 2026. "Trade policy and exporters’ resilience: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    4. Stein, Hillary, 2025. "Got milk? The effect of export price shocks on exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    5. Liyu Dou & Paul Ho & Thomas A. Lubik, 2023. "Max-Share Misidentification," Working Paper 25-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

  6. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Drautzburg, Thorsten & Guerron, Pablo, 2021. "Bargaining Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15979, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael Ellington & Chris Martin & Bingsong Wang, 2024. "Revisiting Real Wage Rigidity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2-3), pages 613-626, March.
    2. Matteo Iacoviello, 2018. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," 2018 Meeting Papers 79, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Claudia Foroni & Francesco Furlanetto, 2022. "Explaining Deviations from Okun’s Law," Working Paper 2022/4, Norges Bank.
    4. Manuel Coutinho Pereira, 2025. "A firm-level analysis of the labour share in Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Tarek A. Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," Working Papers Series 96, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    6. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Samuel Hurtado & Galo Nuño, 2020. "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution," CESifo Working Paper Series 8482, CESifo.
    7. Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Dick Oosthuizen, 2024. "Filtering with Limited Information," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-016, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Jay Hyun & Ryan Kim & Byoungchan Lee, 2024. "Business Cycles With Cyclical Returns To Scale," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(1), pages 253-282, February.
    9. Gaigné, Carl & Sanch-Maritan, Mathieu, 2019. "City size and the risk of being unemployed. Job pooling vs. job competition," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 222-238.

  7. Nils M. Gornemann & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Felipe Saffie, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Endogenous Productivity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1301, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Ryan Chahrour & Vito Cormun & Pierre De Leo & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Rosen Valchev, 2021. "Exchange Rate Disconnect Revisited," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1041, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 2023.
    2. Benguria, Felipe & Matsumoto, Hidehiko & Saffie, Felipe, 2022. "Productivity and trade dynamics in sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Mac Mullen, Marcos & Woo, Soo Kyung, 2025. "Real exchange rate and net trade dynamics: Financial and trade shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

  8. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana, 2020. "Estimating DSGE Models: Recent Advances and Future Challenges," NBER Working Papers 27715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Kukacka, Jiri & Sacht, Stephen, 2021. "Estimation of Heuristic Switching in Behavioral Macroeconomic Models," Economics Working Papers 2021-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    2. Farkas, Mátyás & Tatar, Balint, 2020. "Bayesian estimation of DSGE models with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo," IMFS Working Paper Series 144, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    4. Barrie, Mohamed Samba & Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2022. "Impact of Technological Shock on the Sierra Leone Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Approach," MPRA Paper 113636, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2022.
    5. Juselius, Mikael, 2025. "Navigating the sea of natural real interest rate estimates," BoF Economics Review 3/2025, Bank of Finland.

  9. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," NBER Working Papers 26768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Kovalenko, Tim, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and employment fluctuations in Germany: The role of establishment size," Discussion Papers 119, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    2. Kandoussi, Malak & Langot, François, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 13438, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Roberto Casarin & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies," Working Papers No 13/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    4. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Financial Uncertainty Shocks: A Daily Identification Approach," Documentos de Trabajo 559, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    5. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    6. Engin Kara & Ahmed Pirzada, 2021. "Evaluating effectiveness of price level targeting in the presence of increasing uncertainty," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 21/737, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    7. Anna Belianska & Aurélien Eyquem & Céline Poilly, 2021. "The Transmission Channels of Government Spending Uncertainty," Working Papers halshs-03160370, HAL.
    8. Jingjing Fan & Feng Shi & Junzhu Zhao & Jingming Zhu, 2023. "Trade Policy Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Monetary Policy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 24(1), pages 193-211, May.
    9. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2023. "Are the Effects of Uncertainty Shocks Big or Small?," Working Papers 244, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    10. Thomas Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2020. "The twenty-fifth anniversary of "Frontiers of business cycle research"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 1-7, August.
    11. Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Adam Abdel Kader Touré, 2020. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Measure and Impacts on the Canadian Economy," CIRANO Working Papers 2020s-47, CIRANO.
    12. Pascal Goemans, 2022. "Historical evidence for larger government spending multipliers in uncertain times than in slumps," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1164-1185, July.
    13. Falconio, Andrea & Manganelli, Simone, 2025. "Financial conditions, business cycle fluctuations and growth-at-risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    14. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli & Luca Sala, 2023. "The impact of financial shocks on the forecast distribution of output and inflation," Working Paper 2023/3, Norges Bank.
    15. Chikhale, Nisha, 2023. "The effects of uncertainty shocks: Implications of wealth inequality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    16. Thierry U. Kame Babilla, 2024. "Bank‐lending channel of monetary policy transmission in WAEMU: An estimated DSGE model approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1277-1300, April.
    17. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Alessio Volpicella & Bo Yang, 2022. "The Use and Mis-Use of SVARs for Validating DSGE Models," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0522, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    18. Stefan Schiman & Atanas Pekanov, 2020. "Uncertainty in the Euro Area During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66708.
    19. Lukas Freund & Hanbaek Lee & Pontus Rendahl, 2023. "The Risk-Premium Channel of Uncertainty: Implications for Unemployment and Inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 117-137, December.
    20. Matteo Cacciatore & Stefano Gnocchi & Daniela Hauser, 2023. "Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 23-29, Bank of Canada.
    21. Tim Kovalenko, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and employment fluctuations in Germany: the role of establishment size," Working Papers 212, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    22. Anna Spoz & Ilona Skibinska-Fabrowska & Grzegorz Kotlinski & Helena Zukowska, 2021. "The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Financial Performance of Public Companies in Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4 - Part ), pages 955-976.
    23. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Yang Yu & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "Technological Synergies, Heterogeneous Firms, and Idiosyncratic Volatility," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    24. van der Wielen, Wouter & Barrios, Salvador, 2021. "Economic sentiment during the COVID pandemic: Evidence from search behaviour in the EU," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    25. Dario Caldara & Chiara Scotti & Molin Zhong, 2021. "Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 1326, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Eyquem, Aurélien & Poilly, Céline & Belianska, Anna, 2023. "On portfolio frictions, asset returns and volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).

  10. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2019. "On Liquidity Shocks and Asset Prices," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-4, Bank of Japan.

    Cited by:

    1. Ryoji Ohdoi, 2023. "Financial shocks to banks, R&D investment, and recessions," Discussion Paper Series 250, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Aug 2023.
    2. Toshiaki Ogawa, 2025. "Understanding The Great Recession Through The Banking Sector," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(1), pages 331-361, February.
    3. Toshiaki Ogawa, 2020. "Liquidity Management of Heterogeneous Banks during the Great Recession," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    4. Werner, Maximilian, 2023. "Occasionally binding liquidity constraints and macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Robert Amano & Thomas Carter & Sylvain Leduc, 2019. "Precautionary Pricing: The Disinflationary Effects of ELB Risk," Working Paper Series 2019-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Marco Del Negro & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2016. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed’s Liquidity Facilities," NBER Working Papers 22259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc P. Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 235-316.
    8. Mahdi Nezafat & Ctirad Slavik, 2021. "Asset Prices and Business Cycles with Liquidity Shocks," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp711, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    9. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    10. Hasumi, Ryo & Iibsoshi, Hirokuni & Nakamura, Daisuke, 2018. "Trends, Cycles and Lost Decades: Decomposition from a DSGE Model with Endogenous Growth," MPRA Paper 85521, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Giorgio Massari & Luca Portoghese & Patrizio Tirelli, 2024. "Whither Liquidity Shocks? Implications for R∗ and Monetary Policy," DEM Working Papers Series 217, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.

  11. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2019. "On Regional Borrowing, Default, and Migration," Working Paper 19-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

    Cited by:

    1. Prein, Timm, 2019. "Persistent Unemployment, Sovereign Debt Crises, and the Impact of Haircuts," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203654, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, revised 2019.
    2. Davis, Morris A. & Fisher, Jonas D.M. & Veracierto, Marcelo, 2021. "Migration and urban economic dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Si Guo & Yun Pei & Zoe Xie, 2019. "Decentralization and Overborrowing in a Fiscal Federation," 2019 Meeting Papers 1229, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. George Alessandria & Minjie Deng & Yan Bai, 2019. "Sovereign Default Risk and Migration," 2019 Meeting Papers 1085, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2020. "“Migration and sovereign default risk” a comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 23-27.
    6. Darong Dai & Dennis W. Jansen & Liqun Liu, 2021. "Inter-jurisdiction migration and the fiscal policies of local governments," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 133-164, March.
    7. Brent W. Ambrose & Matthew Gustafson & Maxence Valentin & Zihan Ye, 2026. "Voter-Induced Municipal Credit Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 72(2), pages 1214-1235, February.
    8. Alessandria, George & Bai, Yan & Deng, Minjie, 2020. "Migration and sovereign default risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-22.

  12. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2019. "Recurrent Bubbles and Economic Growth," CARF F-Series CARF-F-457, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

    Cited by:

    1. Yip Chee Yin & Abdelhak Senadjki & Au Yong Hui Nee & Samuel Ogbeibu, 2024. "Identifying the Housing Bubble Predictors in Asian Emerging Economy: Exploring a Novel Model Based on Opinions," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(4), pages 21582440241, October.
    2. Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, 2021. "Identifying the sources of the slowdown in growth: Demand vs. supply," Working Paper 2021/9, Norges Bank.
    3. Zhang, Xiaoge, 2022. "Belief-driven growth slowdowns and zero-bounded risk-free rate," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Francisco Queirós, 2021. "Asset Bubbles and Product Market Competition," CSEF Working Papers 607, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    5. Schaal, Edouard & Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu, 2023. "Herding through booms and busts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    6. Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli, 2020. "Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand vs. Supply," 2020 Papers pma2978, Job Market Papers.
    7. Awaya, Yu & Iwasaki, Kohei & Watanabe, Makoto, 2022. "Rational bubbles and middlemen," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(4), November.
    8. Nina Biljanovska & Lucyna Gornicka & Alexandros Vardoulakis, 2019. "Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles," IMF Working Papers 2019/184, International Monetary Fund.

  13. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2018. "On Regional Borrowing, Migration, and Default," 2018 Meeting Papers 305, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Si Guo & Yun Pei & Zoe Xie, 2019. "Decentralization and Overborrowing in a Fiscal Federation," 2019 Meeting Papers 1229, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. George Alessandria & Minjie Deng & Yan Bai, 2019. "Sovereign Default Risk and Migration," 2019 Meeting Papers 1085, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Grey Gordon, 2019. "Efficient Computation with Taste Shocks," Working Paper 19-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

  14. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2018. "Recurrent Bubbles, Economic Fluctuations, and Growth," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-5, Bank of Japan.

    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2017. "The macroeconomics of rational bubbles: a user's guide," Economics Working Papers 1581, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2018.
    2. Larch, Martin & Claeys, Peter & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2025. "Scarring effects of major economic downturns: The role of fiscal policy and government investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA).
    3. Hasumi, Ryo & Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Nakamura, Daisuke, 2017. "R&D Growth and Business Cycles Measured with an Endogenous Growth DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 85525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sohei Kaihatsu & Maiko Koga & Tomoya Sakata & Naoko Hara, 2018. "Interaction between Business Cycles and Economic Growth," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-12, Bank of Japan.
    5. Vuillemey, Guillaume & Wasmer, Etienne, 2020. "Frictional unemployment with stochastic bubbles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

  15. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Times of Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Y. Dendramis & G. Kapetanios & M. Marcellino, 2020. "A similarity‐based approach for macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 801-827, June.
    2. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Goebel & Karin Klieber, 2024. "Dual Interpretation of Machine Learning Forecasts," Papers 2412.13076, arXiv.org.
    3. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    4. Manuel Paquette-Dupuis & Dalibor Stevanovic & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2019. "Prévisions de l’activité économique en temps de crise," CIRANO Project Reports 2019rp-04, CIRANO.
    5. Visa Kuntze & Henri Nyberg & Samuel Rauhala, 2026. "Similarity-based path forecasting of US recession periods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 70(3), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Maximilian Göbel & Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber, 2025. "Dual Interpretation of Machine Learning Forecasts (Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Maximilian Göbel, Karin Klieber)," Working Papers 265, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    7. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility," Working Papers 21-02R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 09 Aug 2021.
    8. Kanazawa, Nobuyuki, 2020. "Radial basis functions neural networks for nonlinear time series analysis and time-varying effects of supply shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

  16. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Drautzburg, Thorsten & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2017. "Political Distribution Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 12187, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Iacoviello, 2018. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," 2018 Meeting Papers 79, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Tarek A. Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," Working Papers Series 96, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Samuel Hurtado & Galo Nuño, 2020. "Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution," CESifo Working Paper Series 8482, CESifo.
    4. Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Mehmet Balcilar, 2018. "The Long-run Effect of Geopolitical Risks on Insurance Premiums," Working Papers 15-44, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    5. Budrys, Žymantas & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Striking a bargain: narrative identification of wage bargaining shocks," Working Paper Series 2602, European Central Bank.
    6. Drago, Bergholt & Furlanetto, Francesco & Faccioli, Nicolò Maffei, 2019. "The decline of the labor share: new empirical evidence," Working Paper 2019/18, Norges Bank.
    7. Ruediger Bachmann & Jinhui Bai & Minjoon Lee & Fudong Zhang, 2020. "The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: a Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 127-153, October.
    8. Ceballos, Luis & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens, 2024. "Is firm-level political risk priced in the corporate bond market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Isabel Cairó & Jae W. Sim, 2018. "Income Inequality, Financial Crises, and Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-048, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Gaigné, Carl & Sanch-Maritan, Mathieu, 2019. "City size and the risk of being unemployed. Job pooling vs. job competition," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 222-238.
    11. Isabel Cairó & Jae W. Sim, 2020. "Market Power, Inequality, and Financial Instability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-057, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  17. Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Felipe Saffie & Nils Mattis Gornemann, 2016. "Endogenous Productivity, Exchange Rates, and Sudden Stops," 2016 Meeting Papers 1490, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Seoane, Hernán D. & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2019. "Trend shocks and sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

  18. Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Impulse Response Matching Estimators for DSGE Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5730, CESifo.

    Cited by:

    1. He, Yongda & Du, Anna Min & Lin, Boqiang & Scrimgeour, Frank, 2025. "Energy-capital substitution, technological innovation, and monetary policy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R. & Xu, Yongdeng, 2017. "Comparing different data descriptors in Indirect Inference tests on DSGE models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11816, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Marco Lippi & Luca Sala, 2025. "Informing DSGE Models Through Dynamic Factor Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 487-507, August.
    4. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2021. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy during the Great Recession," Economics Working Papers 2021-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2020. "Estimating nonlinear dynamic equilibrium models by matching impulse responses," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    6. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
    7. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xu, Yongdeng, 2022. "Targeting moments for calibration compared with indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2022/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    8. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Uncertainty-dependent Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Keynesian Interpretation," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0219, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    9. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2024. "A matrix unified framework for deriving various impulse responses in Markov switching VAR: Evidence from oil and gas markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    10. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses," Departmental Working Papers 1401, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    11. Martinoli, Mario & Moneta, Alessio & Pallante, Gianluca, 2024. "Calibration and validation of macroeconomic simulation models by statistical causal search," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    12. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy during Extreme Events," Economics Working Papers 2020-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakenas, 2021. "Dancing Alone or Together: The Dynamic Effects of Independent and Common Monetary Policies," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 87, Bank of Lithuania.
    14. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael & Xu, Yongdeng, 2018. "The small sample properties of Indirect Inference in testing and estimating DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    15. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    16. Ryan Chahrour & Sanjay K. Chugh & Tristan Potter, 2023. "Anticipated productivity and the labor market," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), pages 897-934, July.
    17. Lucy Minford & David Meenagh, 2020. "Supply-Side Policy and Economic Growth: A Case Study of the UK," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 159-193, February.
    18. Giovanni Angelini & Luca Fanelli & Marco M. Sorge, 2025. "Is Time an Illusion? A Bootstrap Likelihood Ratio Test for Shock Transmission Delays in DSGE Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(5), pages 2477-2503, May.
    19. Chatterjee, Pratiti, 2024. "Uncertainty shocks, financial frictions, and business cycle asymmetries across countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    20. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2019. "Testing DSGE Models by Indirect Inference: a Survey of Recent Findings," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 593-620, July.
    21. Sergey Ivashchenko & Andrey Sinyakov, 2025. "Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations Across Economic Agents: Implications for Monetary Policy," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps152, Bank of Russia.
    22. Angelini, Giovanni & Sorge, Marco M., 2021. "Under the same (Chole)sky: DNK models, timing restrictions and recursive identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    23. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2019. "The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions," Working Papers 1908, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    24. Inês da Cunha Cabral & João Nicolau, 2022. "Inflation in the G7 and the expected time to reach the reference rate: A nonparametric approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1608-1620, April.
    25. Minford, Patrick & Xu, Yongdeng, 2024. "Indirect Inference- a methodological essay on its role and applications," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    26. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Maria Sole Pagliari, 2022. "DSGE Nash: solving Nash Games in Macro Models With an application to optimal monetary policy under monopolistic commodity pricing," Working papers 884, Banque de France.
    27. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xu, Yongdeng, 2023. "Indirect Inference and Small Sample Bias - Some Recent Results," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    28. Mauricio Stern, 2025. "Windfalls for All? International Elasticities and Dutch Disease in a Commodity Exporting Economy," Working Papers 2025-06, Banco de México.
    29. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2022. "DSGE Nash: solving Nash games in macro models," Working Paper Series 2678, European Central Bank.
    30. Daniil Lomonosov, 2023. "Shocks of Business Activity and Specific Shocks to Oil Market in DSGE Model of Russian Economy and Their Influence Under Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(4), pages 44-79, December.
    31. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," Working Paper Series 2024-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    32. Lin, Boqiang & Xu, Bin, 2018. "Growth of industrial CO2 emissions in Shanghai city: Evidence from a dynamic vector autoregression analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 167-177.
    33. Antoine, Bertille & Sun, Wenqian, 2025. "Simulation-based estimation with many auxiliary statistics applied to long-run dynamic analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    34. Zviadadze, Irina, 2018. "Term Structure of Risk in Expected Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 13414, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    35. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2023. "Ambiguous Business Cycles, Recessions and Uncertainty: A Quantitative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10646, CESifo.
    36. Giovanni Angelini & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca Fanelli, 2022. "Bootstrap inference and diagnostics in state space models: With applications to dynamic macro models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 3-22, January.

  19. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2014. "Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Models with Stochastic Volatility," Working Papers 1424, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Cuba‐Borda & Luca Guerrieri & Matteo Iacoviello & Molin Zhong, 2019. "Likelihood evaluation of models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 1073-1085, November.
    2. Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2015. "Man-Bites-Dog Business Cycle," Working Papers 700, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Rebucci, Alessandro & Benigno, Gianluca & Foerster, Andrew & Otrok, Christopher, 2020. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 14545, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Dietrich, Alexander M., 2023. "Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 157, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    5. Nigar Hashimzade & Oleg Kirsanov & Tatiana Kirsanova & Junior Maih, 2024. "On Bayesian Filtering for Markov Regime Switching Models," Working Papers 2024_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Patella, Valeria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Confidence Swings and Sovereign Risk Dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 195-206.
    7. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    8. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2015. "Sigma Point Filters For Dynamic Nonlinear Regime Switching Models," Working Papers No 4/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    9. Andrew T. Foerster & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2014. "Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. Jump, Robert Calvert & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Behavioural New Keynesian models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 59-77.
    11. Ciccarone, Giuseppe & Giuli, Francesco & Marchetti, Enrico & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2020. "Leaning against the bubble. Can theoretical models match the empirical evidence?," MPRA Paper 105004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2020. "Recurrent Bubbles and Economic Growth," CIGS Working Paper Series 20-005E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    13. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2021. "Bubbles, Crashes, Ups and Downs in Economic Growth Theory and Evidence," CIGS Working Paper Series 21-006E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    14. Le Thanh Ha & To Trung Thanh & Doan Ngoc Thang, 2021. "Welfare costs of monetary policy uncertainty in the economy with shifting trend inflation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 126-154, February.
    15. Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Tony Yates, 2015. "Estimating Time-Varying DSGE Models Using Minimum Distance Methods," Working Papers 768, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

  20. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2014. "Lliquidity, trends, and the great recession," Working Papers 14-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael Redmond & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2016. "The Lasting Damage from the Financial Crisis to U.S. Productivity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 39-64.
    2. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Daichi Shirai, 2017. "Debt-Ridden Borrowers and Economic Slowdown," CIGS Working Paper Series 17-002E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    3. Moran, Patrick & Queralto, Albert, 2018. "Innovation, productivity, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 24-41.
    4. Diego Anzoategui & Diego Comin & Mark Gertler & Joseba Martinez, 2016. "Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence," NBER Working Papers 22005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2023. "(Endogenous) Growth Slowdowns," Studies in Economics 2303, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    6. Marco Luca Pinchetti, 2017. "Creative Destruction Cycles: Schumpeterian Growth in an Estimated DSGE Model," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2017-04, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 217-235.
    8. Queralto, Albert, 2020. "A model of slow recoveries from financial crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-25.
    9. Ichiro Muto & Nao Sudo & Shunichi Yoneyama, 2023. "Productivity Slowdown in Japan's Lost Decades: How Much of It Can Be Attributed to Damaged Balance Sheets?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 159-207, February.
    10. Chang Ma, 2018. "Financial Stability, Growth, and Macroprudential Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 3, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Sanjay R. Singh & Lawrence H. Summers, 2016. "A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation," NBER Working Papers 22299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Daichi Shirai, 2016. "Debt-Ridden Borrowers and Productivity Slowdown," CIGS Working Paper Series 16-001E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    13. GUERRON-QUINTANA, Pablo A. & JINNAI, Ryo & 陣内, 了, 2015. "Financial Frictions, Trends, and the Great Recession," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-14, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.

  21. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2013. "Dynamics of investment, debt, and default," Working Papers 13-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2023. "Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings: Public Capital and Fiscal Constraint Tightness," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0323, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    2. Marios Karabarbounis & Patrick Macnamara, 2019. "Misallocation and Credit Market Constraints: the Role of Long-Term Financing," Working Paper 19-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    3. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2017. "Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation, and Persistent Recessions," NBER Working Papers 23835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Yongquan Cao & Grey Gordon, 2019. "A Practical Approach to Testing Calibration Strategies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 1165-1182, March.
    5. Park, JungJae, 2011. "Sovereign Default and Capital Accumulation," MPRA Paper 60150, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2014.
    6. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1697-1755, Elsevier.
    7. Siming Liu & Hewei Shen, 2018. "Fiscal Commitment and Sovereign Default Risk," CAEPR Working Papers 2018-003, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    8. Park, JungJae, 2017. "Sovereign default and capital accumulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 119-133.
    9. Phan, Toàn & Schwartzman, Felipe, 2024. "Climate defaults and financial adaptation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    10. Galli, Carlo, 2021. "Self-fulfilling debt crises, fiscal policy and investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    11. Mr. Tamon Asonuma & Mr. Marcos Chamon & Aitor Erce & Akira Sasahara, 2019. "Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel," IMF Working Papers 2019/069, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mihalache, Gabriel, 2020. "Sovereign default resolution through maturity extension," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Haotian Xiang, 2024. "Time Inconsistency and Financial Covenants," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(1), pages 355-371, January.
    14. Bernardo Guimaraes & Lucas Tumkus, 2020. "On the costs of sovereign default in quantitative models," Discussion Papers 2021, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    15. Tavares, Tiago, 2019. "Labor market distortions under sovereign debt default crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    16. Guillaume Blanc and Masahiro Kubo, 2026. "The Making of France," Discussion Papers dp26-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    17. Esquivel, Carlos, 2024. "Underinvestment and capital misallocation under sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    18. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2021. "Public Capital and Fiscal Constraint in Sovereign Debt Crises," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0621, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    19. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2018. "Dynamics of Investment, Debt, and Default," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 71-95, April.
    20. Si Guo & Yun Pei, 2023. "The impact of sovereign defaults on lending countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 345-374, January.
    21. Zachary Stangebye, 2023. "Long-Term Sovereign Debt: A Steady State Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 107-131, April.
    22. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2023. "Sovereign Defaults and Public Investment (Capital)," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1123, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    23. Phan, Toan, 2017. "A model of sovereign debt with private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-17.
    24. Yang, Zhenbing & Chen, Zhuo & Shi, Qi & Yan, Bing, 2021. "Does outward foreign direct investment increase debt ratio? Firm-level evidence from China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-12.
    25. Ram Yamarthy, 2019. "Corporate Debt Maturity and the Real Economy," 2019 Meeting Papers 627, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    26. Toan Phan & Felipe Schwartzman, 2023. "Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation," Working Paper 23-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    27. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2020. "“Migration and sovereign default risk” a comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 23-27.
    28. Franz Hamann & Juan Camilo Mendez-Vizcaino & Enrique G. Mendoza & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, 2023. "Natural Resources and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies: A Curse and a Blessing," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-004, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    29. Dominik Thaler, 2018. "Sovereign default, domestic banks and exclusion from international capital markets," Working Papers 1824, Banco de España.
    30. Kollintzas, Tryphon & Tsoukalas, Konstantinos, 2015. "Bank and Sovereign Risk Interdependence in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 10485, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    31. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2019. "A Quantitative Theory of Hard and Soft Sovereign Defaults," 2019 Meeting Papers 412, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    32. Cusato Novelli, Antonio & Barcia, Giancarlo, 2021. "Sovereign Risk, Public Investment and the Fiscal Policy Stance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    33. Esquivel, Carlos & Samano, Agustin, 2026. "Expansionary fiscal rules under sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    34. Alessandria, George & Bai, Yan & Deng, Minjie, 2020. "Migration and sovereign default risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-22.

  22. Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Gordon, Grey, 2012. "Nonlinear Adventures at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 8972, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Maksim Isakin & Phuong V. Ngo, 2020. "Variance Decomposition Analysis for Nonlinear Economic Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1362-1374, December.
    2. Morris, Stephen D., 2020. "Is the Taylor principle still valid when rates are low?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Aldrich Eric Mark & Kung Howard, 2021. "Computational Methods for Production-Based Asset Pricing Models with Recursive Utility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-26, February.
    4. Campbell Leith & Ding Liu, 2014. "The inflation bias under Calvo and Rotemberg pricing," Working Papers 2014_06, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Forecast uncertainty in the neighborhood of the effective lower bound: How much asymmetry should we expect?," Working Paper 2016/13, Norges Bank.
    6. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Implementing the Zero Lower Bound in an Estimated Regime-Switching DSGE Model," Working Papers No 3/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    7. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "Estimating Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone. A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def058, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    8. Debortoli, Davide & Galí, Jordi & Gambetti, Luca, 2018. "On the Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint," CEPR Discussion Papers 12691, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    9. S. Boragan Aruoba & Frank Schorfheide, 2013. "Macroeconomic dynamics near the ZLB: a tale of two equilibria," Working Papers 13-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    10. Holden, Tom D., 2022. "Existence and uniqueness of solutions to dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," Discussion Papers 09/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Timothy S. Hills & Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2016. "The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-9, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Varthalitis, Petros & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2015. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy action in a closed economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 175-188.
    13. Battistini, Niccolò & Callegari, Giovanni & Zavalloni, Luca, 2019. "Dynamic fiscal limits and monetary-fiscal policy interactions," Working Paper Series 2268, European Central Bank.
    14. Masek, Frantisek & Zemlicka, Jan, 2024. "Average inflation targeting: how far to look into the past and the future?," Working Paper Series 2955, European Central Bank.
    15. Cristina Arellano & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar & Viktor Tsyrennikov, 2014. "Envelope Condition Method with an Application to Default Risk Models," BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory Working Paper Series 2014-04, Brigham Young University, Department of Economics, BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory.
    16. Ngo, Phuong V., 2021. "Fiscal Multipliers At The Zero Lower Bound: The Role Of Government Spending Persistence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 970-997, June.
    17. Michael Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(611), pages 1730-1757, June.
    18. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "The stimulative effect of forward guidance," Working Papers 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Ortiz, Marco, 2015. "Choques de colas anchas y política monetaria," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 29, pages 17-31.
    20. Adiya Belgibayeva & Michal Horvath, 2017. "Real Rigidities and Optimal Stabilization at the Zero Lower Bound in New Keynesian Economies," Discussion Papers 17/01, Department of Economics, University of York.
    21. Tyler Atkinson & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "The Zero Lower Bound and Estimation Accuracy," Working Papers 1804, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    22. Lepetyuk, Vadym & Maliar, Serguei, 2019. "When the U.S. catches a cold, Canada sneezes: a lower-bound tale told by deep learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 14025, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    23. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2019. "The Natural Rate of Interest in a Nonlinear DSGE Model," Working Papers e128, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    24. Wu, Jing Cynthia & Zhang, Ji, 2019. "Global effective lower bound and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 200-216.
    25. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2016. "Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," Working Papers halshs-01661908, HAL.
    26. Lasitha R. C. Pathberiya, 2016. "Optimal Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates in a Cost Channel Economy," Discussion Papers Series 568, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    27. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2021. "Identification at the Zero Lower Bound," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2855-2885, November.
    28. Jung, Alexander, 2025. "The quantity theory of money: An empirical analysis for 1870 - 2020," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    29. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2015. "The Transmission Mechanism In Good And Bad Times," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1237-1260, November.
    30. Horvath, Roman & Kaszab, Lorant & Marsal, Ales & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2020. "Determinants of fiscal multipliers revisited," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    31. Timothy S. Hills & Taisuke Nakata, 2018. "Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 155-172, February.
    32. Olani, Adugna, 2016. "Dynamic Capital inflow transmission of monetary policy to emerging markets," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 274684, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    33. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2016. "Zero interest rate policy and asymmetric price adjustment in Japan: an empirical analysis of a nonlinear DSGE model," MPRA Paper 93868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Werner, Maximilian, 2023. "Occasionally binding liquidity constraints and macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    36. Todd B. Walker & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2014. "Accuracy, Speed and Robustness of Policy Function Iteration," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-08, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    37. Lee E. Ohanian, 2016. "The Great Recession in the Shadow of the Great Depression: A Review Essay on “Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, The Great Recession and the Uses and Misuses Of History”," NBER Working Papers 22239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Richard Dennis, 2016. "Durations at the Zero Lower Bound," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    39. Alexandre Corhay & Thilo Kind & Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales, 2021. "Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory," Staff Working Papers 21-58, Bank of Canada.
    40. Robert Amano & Thomas Carter & Sylvain Leduc, 2019. "Precautionary Pricing: The Disinflationary Effects of ELB Risk," Working Paper Series 2019-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    41. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2015. "OccBin: A toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-38.
    42. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Alexey Khazanov & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Financial and Macroeconomic Data Through the Lens of a Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    43. Yasuo Hirose & Atsushi Inoue, 2013. "Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," TERG Discussion Papers 308, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    44. Mehmet Pasaogullari, 2015. "Forecasts from Reduced-form Models under the Zero-Lower-Bound Constraint," Working Papers (Old Series) 1512, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    45. Mishel Ghassibe & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "State Dependence of Fiscal Multipliers: the Source of Fluctuations Matters," BCAM Working Papers 2204, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    46. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Levintal, Oren, 2016. "Solution Methods for Models with Rare Disasters," CEPR Discussion Papers 11115, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    47. Christoffel, Kai & Mazelis, Falk & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Müller, Tobias, 2020. "Disciplining expectations and the forward guidance puzzle," Working Paper Series 2424, European Central Bank.
    48. S. BoraÄŸan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-035, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 19 Jun 2014.
    49. Best Gabriela & Kapinos Pavel, 2016. "Monetary policy and news shocks: are Taylor rules forward-looking?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 335-360, June.
    50. Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D. & Salle, I., 2015. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Design at the Zero Lower Bound - Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    51. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2024. "Downward Nominal Rigidities and Bond Premia," Working Paper Series WP 2024-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    52. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2015. "A penalty function approach to occasionally binding credit constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 315-327.
    53. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2020. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: A Macroeconomic Interpretation," Working Paper Series WP 2020-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    54. Richard Dennis & Oleg Kirsanov, 2020. "Monetary Policy when Preferences are Quasi-Hyperbolic," Working Papers 2020_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    55. Robert Amano & Stefano Gnocchi, 2023. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity Meets the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 859-887, June.
    56. Taisuke Nakata, 2018. "Reputation and Liquidity Traps," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 252-268, April.
    57. Kenneth L. Judd & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar & Rafael Valero, 2013. "Smolyak Method for Solving Dynamic Economic Models: Lagrange Interpolation, Anisotropic Grid and Adaptive Domain," BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory Working Paper Series 2013-02, Brigham Young University, Department of Economics, BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory.
    58. Aruoba, S. Borağan & Bocola, Luigi & Schorfheide, Frank, 2017. "Assessing DSGE model nonlinearities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 34-54.
    59. Thuy Lan Nguyen & Dmitriy Sergeyev & Wataru Miyamoto, 2016. "Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan," 2016 Meeting Papers 666, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    60. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-042, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 09 Dec 2015.
    61. Tom Holden & Michael Paetz, 2012. "Efficient simulation of DSGE models with inequality constraints," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1612, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    62. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo & Rottner, Matthias, 2021. "Hitting the elusive inflation target," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 107-122.
    63. Badarau, Cristina & Sangaré, Ibrahima, 2019. "Exchange rate regimes in a liquidity trap," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 55-80.
    64. Hafedh Bouakez & Michel Guillard & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2016. "Public Investment, Time to Build, and the Zero Lower Bound," Documents de recherche 16-09, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    65. Wonjun Chang & Michael C. Ferris & Youngdae Kim & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2020. "Solving Stochastic Dynamic Programming Problems: A Mixed Complementarity Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 925-955, March.
    66. Magali Marx & Benoit Mojon & François Velde, 2017. "Why Have Interest Rates Fallen far Below the Return on Capital," Working papers 630, Banque de France.
    67. Yoon J. Jo & Sarah Zubairy, 2021. "State dependent government spending multipliers: Downward nominal wage rigidity and sources of business cycle fluctuations," Working Papers 20210127-001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    68. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay C. Lim, 2018. "What Do We Know about the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers," CESifo Working Paper Series 7366, CESifo.
    69. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe & Radke, Lucas, 2022. "Counter-cyclical fiscal rules and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2715, European Central Bank.
    70. Valerio Scalone, 2018. "Estimating Non-Linear DSGEs with the Approximate Bayesian Computation: an application to the Zero Lower Bound," Working papers 688, Banque de France.
    71. Gross, Isaac & Hansen, James, 2021. "Optimal policy design in nonlinear DSGE models: An n-order accurate approximation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    72. Nathaniel Throckmorton & Benjamin Keen & Alexander Richter & William Gavin, 2013. "Global Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," 2013 Meeting Papers 839, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    73. Albertini, Julien & Poirier, Arthur & Roulleau-Pasdeloup, Jordan, 2014. "The composition of government spending and the multiplier at the zero lower bound," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 31-35.
    74. De Grauwe, Paul & Foresti, Pasquale, 2020. "Animal spirits and fiscal policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103500, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    75. Maria Lucia Florez-Jimenez & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2014. "Forward guidance with an escape clause: When half a promise is better than a full one," Borradores de Economia 11143, Banco de la Republica.
    76. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Escaping the Great Recession," Working Paper Series WP-2016-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    77. Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2016. "The Government Spending Multiplier in a Deep Recession," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 16.22, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    78. Paul Grauwe & Pasquale Foresti, 2025. "Deflationary traps, agents’ beliefs and fiscal–monetary policies," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 80(3), pages 941-964, November.
    79. Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Varthalitis, Petros & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2017. "Fiscal consolidation and its cross-country effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-106.
    80. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    81. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2022. "The unbearable lightness of equilibria in a low interest rate environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-17.
    82. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "The Zero Lower Bound: Frequency, Duration, and Determinacy," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-16, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    83. Javier Andrés & Óscar Arce & Samuel Hurtado & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2020. "Deciphering the macroeconomic effects of internal devaluations in a monetary union," Working Papers 2016, Banco de España.
    84. Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2018. "Online Appendix to "Gradualism and Liquidity Traps"," Online Appendices 17-251, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    85. William Scarth, 2014. "User Discretion Advised: Fiscal Consolidation and the Recovery," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 412, July.
    86. Sabri Boubaker & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Nikos Paltalidis, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Interventions at the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 2016-002, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    87. Taisuke Nakata & Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2016. "Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    88. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Joël Marbet & Galo Nuño Barrau & Omar Rachedi, 2024. "Inequality and the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 1160, Bank for International Settlements.
    89. Sebastian Schmidt, 2017. "Fiscal Activism and the Zero Nominal Interest Rate Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 695-732, June.
    90. Bredemeier, Christian & Juessen, Falko & Schabert, Andreas, 2015. "Fiscal Policy, Interest Rate Spreads, and the Zero Lower Bound," IZA Discussion Papers 8993, IZA Network @ LISER.
    91. Jonathan Swarbrick, 2021. "Occasionally Binding Constraints in Large Models: A Review of Solution Methods," Discussion Papers 2021-5, Bank of Canada.
    92. Zaretski, Aliaksandr, 2021. "Financial constraints, risk sharing, and optimal monetary policy," MPRA Paper 110757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    93. Eftekhari, Aryan & Juillard, Michel & Rion, Normann & Scheidegger, Simon, 2025. "Scalable Global Solution Techniques for High-Dimensional Models in Dynare," Dynare Working Papers 86, CEPREMAP.
    94. Yongyang Cai & Kenneth L. Judd, 2023. "A simple but powerful simulated certainty equivalent approximation method for dynamic stochastic problems," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 651-687, May.
    95. Oliver de Groot & C. Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2024. "Why Global and Local Solutions of Open-Economy Models with Incomplete Markets Differ and Why it Matters," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-037, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    96. Fotiou, Alexandra & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2020. "The fiscal state-dependent effects of capital income tax cuts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    97. Tomohide Mineyama, 2024. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Determinacy of Equilibrium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 305-316, February.
    98. Boneva, Lena Mareen & Braun, R. Anton & Waki, Yuichiro, 2016. "Some unpleasant properties of loglinearized solutions when the nominal rate is zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 216-232.
    99. Martin Slanicay & Jan Čapek & Miroslav Hloušek, 2016. "Some Notes On Problematic Issues In Dsge Models," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(210), pages 79-100, July - Se.
    100. Julio Carrillo & Celine Poilly, 2013. "How do financial frictions affect the spending multiplier during a liquidity trap?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 296-311, April.
    101. Paul Levine & Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov & Jonathan Swarbrick, 2021. "Limited Asset Market Participation and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0921, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    102. Wu, Jing Cynthia & Zhang, Ji, 2019. "A shadow rate New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    103. Alloza, Mario, 2016. "Is fiscal policy more effective in uncertain times or during recessions?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86179, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    104. Harding, Martín & Lindé, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2023. "Understanding post-COVID inflation dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 101-118.
    105. Vadym Lepetyuk & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2017. "Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models?," Staff Working Papers 17-21, Bank of Canada.
    106. Linde, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2019. "Resolving the Missing Deflation Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 13690, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    107. Roc Armenter, 2013. "The perils of nominal targets," Working Papers 14-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    108. Jonathan Swarbrick, 2019. "Lending Standards, Productivity and Credit Crunches," Staff Working Papers 19-25, Bank of Canada.
    109. Volker Hahn, 2017. "Policy Effects in a Simple Fully Non-Linear New Keynesian Model of the Liquidity Trap," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    110. Christopher J. Gust & Edward P. Herbst & J. David López-Salido & Matthew E. Smith, 2012. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-83, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    111. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 13/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    112. Jan Bruha, 2015. "Dynamics of Linear Forward-looking Structural Macroeconomic Models at the Zero Lower Bound: Do Solution Techniques Matter?," Working Papers 2015/13, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    113. Siming Liu, 2018. "Government Spending during Sudden Stop Crises," CAEPR Working Papers 2018-002, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    114. Maksim Isakin & Phuong V. Ngo, 2022. "Multiplicity in New Keynesian Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 505-521, July.
    115. Maxime Sauzet, 2025. "Green Intermediary Asset Pricing," CESifo Working Paper Series 11944, CESifo.
    116. Hall, Jamie, 2012. "Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium," MPRA Paper 43933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    117. Haderer, Michaela, 2022. "An Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area with Expectations about the Timing and Nature of Liftoff from the Lower Bound," Working Papers 2022-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    118. Salvatore Nistico & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2017. "Non-Neutrality of Open Market Operations," 2017 Meeting Papers 574, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    119. Francois Velde & Benoït Mojon & Magali Marx, 2017. "Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low?," 2017 Meeting Papers 1292, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    120. Virgiliu Midrigan & Thomas Philippon & Callum Jones, 2016. "Beyond the Liquidity Trap: the Secular Stagnation of Investment," 2016 Meeting Papers 1429, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    121. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Alexandre Corhay, 2017. "Fiscal Discount Rates and Debt Maturity," 2017 Meeting Papers 840, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    122. Eric Sims & Jonathan Wolff, 2018. "The Output And Welfare Effects Of Government Spending Shocks Over The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1403-1435, August.
    123. Julien Albertini & Arthur Poirier, 2015. "Unemployment Benefit Extension at the Zero Lower Bound," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 733-751, October.
    124. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Suda, 2021. "Are DSGE models irreparably flawed?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(3), pages 227-252.
    125. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    126. Benjamin K. Johannsen, 2014. "When are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty Large?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    127. Hall, Jamie, 2012. "Rapid estimation of nonlinear DSGE models," MPRA Paper 41218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    128. Katagiri, Mitsuru & Takahashi, Koji, 2023. "Do term premiums matter? Transmission via exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    129. Taisuke Nakata, 2013. "Uncertainty at the zero lower bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    130. Ortiz, Marco, 2014. "Fat-Tailed Shocks and the Central Bank Reaction," Working Papers 2014-002, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    131. Marlon Azinovic & Luca Gaegauf & Simon Scheidegger, 2022. "Deep Equilibrium Nets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1471-1525, November.
    132. Fanelli, Sebastián & Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín, 2021. "Resolution of financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    133. Roc Armenter, 2012. "On the timing of monetary policy reform," Working Papers 13-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    134. Han Chen, 2014. "Assessing the Effects of the Zero-Interest-Rate Policy through the Lens of a Regime-Switching DSGE Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    135. Alex Haberis & Riccardo Masolo & Kate Reinold, 2016. "Deflation probability and the scope for monetary loosening in the United Kingdom," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 627, Bank of England.
    136. Nakata, Taisuke, 2016. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy with occasionally binding zero bound constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 220-240.
    137. Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian & Yoo, Paul, 2018. "Speed limit policy and liquidity traps," Working Paper Series 2192, European Central Bank.
    138. Kenneth L. Judd & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2017. "Lower Bounds on Approximation Errors to Numerical Solutions of Dynamic Economic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 991-1012, May.
    139. Tomohide Mineyama, 2026. "Welfare Consequences of Approximation: The Case of Monetary Policy Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 67(2), pages 827-853, February.
    140. Martin M. Andreasen & Anders F. Kronborg, 2022. "The extended perturbation method: With applications to the New Keynesian model and the zero lower bound," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1171-1202, July.
    141. Mitsuru Katagiri & Koji Takahashi, 2021. "Do term premiums matter? Transmission via exchange rate dynamics," BIS Working Papers 971, Bank for International Settlements.
    142. Oliver de Groot & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Comment," Working Papers 1706, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    143. Sorge, Marco M., 2021. "Stabilizing Taylor rules and determinacy under unit root supply shocks: A re-examination," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    144. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2018. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with a Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Working Papers e120, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    145. Tim Hursey & Alexander Wolman & Andreas Hornstein, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Global Equilibria in an Economy with Capital," 2014 Meeting Papers 733, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    146. Gavin, William T. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2015. "The zero lower bound, the dual mandate, and unconventional dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 14-38.
    147. Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2016. "Is Rotemberg pricing justified by macro data?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 44-48.
    148. Gutiérrez, Germán & Jones, Callum & Philippon, Thomas, 2021. "Entry costs and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 77-91.
    149. Holden, Tom D., 2016. "Existence, uniqueness and computation of solutions to dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," EconStor Preprints 127430, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    150. Lena Boneva & Richard Harrison & Matt Waldron, 2015. "Threshold-based forward guidance: hedging the zero bound," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 561, Bank of England.
    151. Chunbing Cai & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup & Zhongxi Zheng, 2025. "Endogenous Persistence at the Effective Lower Bound," Papers 2501.06473, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    152. Kenneth L. Judd & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2014. "Lower Bounds on Approximation Errors: Testing the Hypothesis That a Numerical Solution Is Accurate?," BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory Working Paper Series 2014-06, Brigham Young University, Department of Economics, BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory.
    153. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2015. "Parameter bias in an estimated DSGE model: does nonlinearity matter?," CAMA Working Papers 2015-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    154. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2017. "Modelling Occasionally Binding Constraints Using Regime-Switching," Working Paper 2017/23, Norges Bank.
    155. Kulish, Mariano & Morley, James & Robinson, Tim, 2017. "Estimating DSGE models with zero interest rate policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 35-49.
    156. Yongyang Cai & Kenneth Judd & Jevgenijs Steinbuks, 2015. "A Nonlinear Certainty Equivalent Approximation Method for Dynamic Stochastic Problems," NBER Working Papers 21590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    157. Jesper Lindé & Mathias Trabandt, 2017. "Should We Use Linearised Models to Calculate Fiscal Multipliers?," European Economy - Discussion Papers 064, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    158. Pierlauro Lopez & J. David López-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2022. "Accounting for Risk in a Linearized Solution: How to Approximate the Risky Steady State and Around It," Working Papers 22-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    159. Brent Bundick & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2021. "From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC's New Employment Objective," Working Paper Series 2021-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    160. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2016. "Forward Guidance as a Monetary Policy Rule," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    161. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Sanjay R. Singh, 2016. "Log-linear Approximation versus an Exact Solution at the ZLB in the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 22784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    162. Coppola, Gianluigi & Destefanis, Sergio & Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo, 2024. "Fiscal multipliers in recession and expansion. An analysis for the Italian regions," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 538-556.
    163. Roc Armenter, 2014. "The Perils of Nominal Targets," 2014 Meeting Papers 428, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    164. Paul Luk & David Vines, 2014. "Debt Deleveraging and the Zero Bound: Potentially Perverse Effects of Real Exchange Rate Movements," Working Papers 202014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    165. Luigi Bocola, 2014. "The Pass-Through of Sovereign Risk," 2014 Meeting Papers 1286, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    166. Costa Junior, Celso J. & Garcia-Cintado, Alejandro C. & Junior, Karlo Marques, 2021. "Macroeconomic policies and the pandemic-driven recession," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 438-465.
    167. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2019. "Review of Solution and Estimation Methods for Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with the Zero Lower Bound," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 51-104, March.
    168. Christian Bredemeier & Falko Juessen & Andreas Schabert, 2017. "Fiscal Multipliers and Monetary Policy: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," Working Paper Series in Economics 95, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    169. de Groot, Oliver & Durdu, C. Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2025. "Why global and local solutions of open-economy models with incomplete markets differ and why it matters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    170. Collingro, Franziska & Frenkel, Michael, 2020. "On the financial market impact of euro area monetary policy: A comparative study before and after the Global Financial Crisis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    171. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Kok, Christoffer & Rottner, Matthias, 2023. "Reversal interest rate and macroprudential policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    172. Iones Kelanemer Holban, 2024. "Non-Linearities in International Spillovers of the ECB$^\prime$s Monetary Policy. The Case of Non-ERM II Countries and Anti-Fragmentation Policy," Papers 2406.19938, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    173. Dmitry Kreptsev & Sergei Seleznev, 2018. "Forecasting for the Russian Economy Using Small-Scale DSGE Models," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(2), pages 51-67, June.
    174. Thibaud Cargoet & Jean-Christophe Poutineau, 2018. "Financial Disruption and State Dependant Credit Policy," Post-Print halshs-01683785, HAL.
    175. Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Alexey Khazanov & Molin Zhong, 2026. "A Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Model for Financial and Macroeconomic Data," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1106, Boston College Department of Economics.
    176. Luca Benati & Thomas A. Lubik, 2023. "Impulse Response Analysis at the Zero Lower Bound," Diskussionsschriften dp2306, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    177. Gordon, Grey, 2021. "Efficient VAR discretization," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    178. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Rhys R. Mendes, 2015. "The Optimal Level of the Inflation Target: A Selective Review of the Literature and Outstanding Issues," Discussion Papers 15-8, Bank of Canada.
    179. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2016. "The role of automatic stabilizers in the U.S. business cycle," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64479, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    180. Phuong Ngo & Jianjun Miao, 2015. "Does Calvo Meet Rotemberg at the Zero Lower Bound?," 2015 Meeting Papers 602, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    181. Aleksandra Praščević & Milutin Ješić, 2019. "Modeling Macroeconomic Policymakers’ Interactions under Zero Lower Bound Environment: The New Keynesian Theoretical Approach," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 8(1), pages 5-38.
    182. Mohsan Bilal, 2017. "Zeroing in: Asset Pricing at the Zero Lower Bound," 2017 Meeting Papers 377, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    183. Ngo, Phuong V., 2014. "Optimal discretionary monetary policy in a micro-founded model with a zero lower bound on nominal interest rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 44-65.
    184. Kang, Hyunju & Park, Jaevin & Suh, Hyunduk, 2020. "The rise of part-time employment in the great recession: Its causes and macroeconomic effects," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    185. Jung, Alexander & Romelli, Davide & Farvaque, Etienne, 2025. "Do central bank reforms lead to more monetary discipline?," Working Paper Series 3049, European Central Bank.
    186. Ngo, Phuong V., 2015. "Household leverage, housing markets, and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 191-207.
    187. Tomohide Mineyama, 2023. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Inflation Dynamics during and after the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(5), pages 1213-1244, August.
    188. Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2018. "Downward nominal wage rigidity and state-dependent government spending multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 11-26.
    189. Albertini, Julien & Poirier, Arthur, 2014. "Unemployment benefits extensions at the zero lower bound on nominal interest rate," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-019, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    190. Winant, Pablo, 2026. "Back in time. fast. Accelerated time iterations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    191. Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2014. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," NBER Working Papers 20055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    192. Timothy S. Hills & Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2019. "Effective Lower Bound Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-077, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    193. Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Katerina Smidkova & Borek Vasicek, 2014. "The Exchange Rate as an Instrument at Zero Interest Rates: The Case of the Czech Republic," Research and Policy Notes 2014/03, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    194. Chen, Han, 2017. "The effects of the near-zero interest rate policy in a regime-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 176-192.
    195. Siming Liu, 2018. "Spending Multiplier during Sudden Stop Crises," 2018 Meeting Papers 226, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    196. Dennis, Richard, 2024. "Using a hyperbolic cross to solve non-linear macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    197. Fangping Peng & R. J. Cebula & M. Foley & Kai Zhan, 2016. "Estimation of the liquidity trap using a panel threshold model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(16), pages 1134-1137, November.
    198. S. Bogan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Kenji Higa-Flores & Frank Schorfheide & Sergio Villalvazo, 2021. "Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 96-120, July.
    199. Karel R. S. M. Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations-Driven Liquidity Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(4), pages 1637-1667.
    200. Johannes Hermanus Kemp, 2020. "Empirical estimates of fiscal multipliers for South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-91, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    201. Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2020. "The Role of Nonlinearity in Indeterminate Models: An Application to Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2020-023, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    202. Hasui, Kohei, 2013. "The non-negative constraint on the nominal interest rate and the effects of monetary policy," MPRA Paper 49394, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    203. Julien Albertini & Valentin Jouvanceau & Stéphane Moyen, 2022. "State-Contingent Forward Guidance," Working Papers 2205, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Etienne (GATE Lyon St-Etienne), Université de Lyon.

  23. Michael Dotsey & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2012. "Interest rates and prices in an inventory model of money with credit," Working Papers 13-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Cociuba, Simona E. & Ramanarayanan, Ananth, 2019. "International risk sharing with endogenously segmented asset markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 61-78.
    2. Dotsey, Michael & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2016. "Interest rates and prices in an inventory model of money with credit," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 71-89.
    3. Raj Kumar Bera & Shyamal Kumar Mondal, 2022. "A multi-objective transportation problem with cost dependent credit period policy under Gaussian fuzzy environment," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 3147-3182, September.
    4. Hazra, Devika, 2018. "Distributional role of monetary policy under limited credit access," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(4), pages 494-510.

  24. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2012. "Common and idiosyncratic disturbances in developed small open economies," Working Papers 12-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Romanos Priftis & Srec̆ko Zimic, 2021. "Sources of Borrowing and Fiscal Multipliers [Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 498-519.
    2. Alexander Chudik & Roland Straub, 2017. "Size, Openness, And Macroeconomic Interdependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(1), pages 33-55, February.
    3. Dániel Baksa & István Kónya, 2021. "Convergence stories of post‐socialist Central‐Eastern European countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(3), pages 239-258, June.
    4. Jacek Suda & Anastasia Zervou, 2016. "International Great Inflation and Common Monetary Policy," Working Papers 20160513_001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    5. Andrés Fernández & Andres Gonzalez & Diego Rodriguez, 2015. "Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2015/280, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ben Broadbent & Federico Di Pace & Thomas Drechsel & Richard Harrison & Silvana Tenreyro, 2019. "The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 1916, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    7. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen, 2016. "Business Cycles in Small, Open Economies: Evidence from Panel Data Between 1900 and 2013," Staff Working Papers 16-48, Bank of Canada.
    8. Paul Ho & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Felipe Schwartzman, 2022. "Multilateral Comovement in a New Keynesian World: A Little Trade Goes a Long Way," Working Paper 22-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    9. Daniel Baksa & Istvan Konya, 2017. "Interest premium and economic growth: the case of CEE," KRTK-KTI WORKING PAPERS 1712, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    10. Daniel Baksa & Istvan Konya, 2019. "Convergence, productivity and debt: the case of Hungary," KRTK-KTI WORKING PAPERS 1916, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    11. Christoph Gortz & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Christoph Thoenissen, 2023. "The Anatomy of Small Open Economy Productivity Trends," Discussion Papers 23-05, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    12. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach," Working Papers No 12/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    13. Dungey, Mardi & Osborne, Denise, 2013. "International Transmissions to Australia: The Roles of the US and Euro Area," Working Papers 17208, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 16 Oct 2013.
    14. Kónya, István & Baksa, Dániel, 2017. "Növekedés és pénzügyi környezet [Growth and the financial environment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 349-376.
    15. Alexander Chudik & Janet Koech & Mark A. Wynne, 2018. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas," Globalization Institute Working Papers 343, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen, 2017. "Business Cycles In Small Open Economies: Evidence From Panel Data Between 1900 And 2013," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1007-1044, August.

  25. Pablo A Guerron-Quintana & James M Nason, 2012. "Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models," CAMA Working Papers 2012-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. He, Yongda & Du, Anna Min & Lin, Boqiang & Scrimgeour, Frank, 2025. "Energy-capital substitution, technological innovation, and monetary policy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Baas, Timo, 2026. "How does the common European labor market impact business cycle dynamics?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Zbigniew Kuchta, 2014. "Sztywność płac nominalnych w modelach DSGE małej skali. Analiza empiryczna dla Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 6, pages 31-56.
    4. Byaro, Mwoyo & Kinyondo, Abel, 2020. "Institutional Quality Explains the Difference of Natural Gas Revenues to Contribute in the Economy: Empirical Evidence from Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(3), November.
    5. Rots, Eyno, 2017. "Imperfect information and the house price in a general-equilibrium model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 215-231.
    6. Baranowski, Paweł & Kuchta, Zbigniew, 2015. "Changes in nominal rigidities in Poland – a regime switching DSGE perspective," MPRA Paper 70573, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2016.
    7. Ashwin, Julian & Beaudry, Paul & Ellison, Martin, 2025. "Neural network learning for nonlinear economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Zhang, Liangliang & Tian, Ruyan & Zhang, Weiping & Yang, Qing & Ye, Tingting, 2026. "Treasury bond pricing via no arbitrage arguments and machine learning: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Paul Corrigan & Hélène Desgagnés & José Dorich & Vadym Lepetyuk & Wataru Miyamoto & Yang Zhang, 2021. "ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis," Technical Reports 119, Bank of Canada.
    10. Nana Kwame Akosah & Imhotep Paul Alagidede & Eric Schaling, 2024. "General Equilibrium Model for Monetary Policy Responses to Macroeconomic Instabilities in Developing Economy: A Ghanaian Perspective," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 13(2), pages 213-272, December.
    11. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Data revisions and DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 215-232.
    12. Xiaoshan Chen & Tatiana Kirsanova & Campbell Leith, 2013. "How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2013_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    13. Katayama, Munechika & Kim, Kwang Hwan, 2013. "The delayed effects of monetary shocks in a two-sector New Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 243-259.
    14. Christian Schoder, 2017. "Estimating Keynesian models of business fluctuations using Bayesian Maximum Likelihood," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 586–630-5, October.
    15. Mariusz Górajski & Zbigniew Kuchta, 2022. "Which hallmarks of optimal monetary policy rules matter in Poland? A stochastic dominance approach," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 53(2), pages 149-182.
    16. J. Andrés & J.E. Boscá & A. Di Gennaro & R. Doménech & J. Ferri, 2025. "Carbon emission cycles in the U.S.: Greening through browning?," Working Papers 2025-04, FEDEA.
    17. Górajski Mariusz & Kuchta Zbigniew, 2018. "Measuring Uncertainty of Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules in DSGE models," Lodz Economics Working Papers 6/2018, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    18. Liu, Anyu & Wu, Doris Chenguang, 2019. "Tourism productivity and economic growth," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 253-265.
    19. Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Zviad Zedginidze, 2015. "Modeling Macro-Fiscal Interlinkages: Case of Georgia," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 7(1), pages 15-41, March.
    20. Kuchta, Zbigniew, . "Sztywność płac nominalnych w modelach DSGE małej skali. Analiza empiryczna dla Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2014(6).
    21. Busato, Francesco & Cisco, Gianluigi & De Simone, Marco & Marzano, Elisabetta, 2025. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Weather Shocks in Small Open Economies," MPRA Paper 125175, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jun 2025.
    22. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2023. "Price-setting heterogeneity and robust monetary policy in a two-sector DSGE model of a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

  26. Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Kuester, Keith & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2011. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," CEPR Discussion Papers 8528, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Yang Shen & Jing Wu & Shuping Wu, 2022. "City‐chief turnover and place‐based policy change: Evidence from China," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(5), pages 1296-1328, November.
    2. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 7697, CESifo.
    3. Yusuf Soner Başkaya & Timur Hülagü & Hande Küçük, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 168-198, April.
    4. T. Philipp Dybowski & J. Nikolaj Dybowski & Philipp Adämmer, 2016. "The Economic Effects of U.S. Presidential Tax Communication," CQE Working Papers 4916, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    5. Hausmann-Guil, Guillermo, 2026. "Approximating around the stochastic steady state matters: rethinking uncertainty shocks in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    6. Yuyang Zhao & Xinyu Dong, 2024. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Firms’ Production Efficiency: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-24, December.
    7. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2013. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions: Interdependent Policy Rule Coefficients," MPRA Paper 50040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Muhammad Nadir Shabbir & Muhammad Usman Arshad & Muhammad Amir Alvi & Kainat Iftikhar, 2022. "Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty and Sustainable Development on Medical Innovation for Developed Countries: An Application of DID Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, December.
    9. Byomakesh Debata & Jitendra Mahakud, 2018. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(1), pages 112-135, April.
    10. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    11. Croce, M.M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Raymond, S. & Schmid, L., 2019. "Government debt and the returns to innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 205-225.
    12. Cosmin L. Ilut & Hikaru Saijo, 2016. "Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 22958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Yao, Can-Zhong & Sun, Bo-Yi, 2018. "The study on the tail dependence structure between the economic policy uncertainty and several financial markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 245-265.
    14. Mecikovsky, Ariel & Meier, Matthias, 2014. "Do plants freeze upon uncertainty shocks?," EconStor Preprints 100662, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. Wu, Guo & Hu, Guoheng, 2024. "Asymmetric spillovers and resilience in physical and financial assets amid climate policy uncertainties: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    16. Stan Veuger & Daniel Shoag, 2013. "Uncertainty and the geography of the Great Recession," AEI Economics Working Papers 694, American Enterprise Institute.
    17. Jingyu Chen & Faqi Jin & Guangda Ouyang & Jian Ouyang & Fenghua Wen, 2019. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industrial economic growth in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, May.
    18. Carstensen, Kai & Bachmann, Rüdiger & Schneider, Martin & Lautenbacher, Stefan, 2018. "Uncertainty is Change," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181572, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2018. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 25386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Nicholas Bloom, 2013. "Fluctuations in Uncertainty," CEP Occasional Papers 038, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    21. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2020. "Financial shocks and inflation dynamics," Working Papers 2020-13, Swiss National Bank.
    22. Laurent Ferrara & Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-20, CEPII research center.
    23. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Juan Manuel Figueres, 2018. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0220, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    24. Bonciani, Dario, 2015. "Estimating the effects of uncertainty over the business cycle," MPRA Paper 65921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Estimating the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks at the Zero Lower Bound," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0222, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    26. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Working Papers 2023_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    27. Saijo, Hikaru, 2017. "The uncertainty multiplier and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-25.
    28. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2017. "Does the Design of a Fiscal Rule Matter for Welfare?," Working Papers 2017-02, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    29. Reinelt, Timo & Meier, Matthias, 2020. "Monetary policy, markup dispersion, and aggregate TFP," Working Paper Series 2427, European Central Bank.
    30. Minhyuk Jeong & Zhuang Chu & Kwangwon Ahn, 2026. "The impact of nuclear energy on social welfare and the future of renewable energy: episode from South Korea," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, December.
    31. Freund, L. B & Rendahl, P., 2020. "Unexpected Effects: Uncertainty, Unemployment, and Inflation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2035, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    32. Benzid, Lamia & Bakari, Sayef, 2021. "Modeling the Asymmetric Relationship between the Covid-19 and the U.S Dollar Exchange Rate: an Empirical Analysis via the NARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 105566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Ran, Gao & Zixiang, Zhu & Jianhao, Lin, 2022. "Consumption–investment comovement and the dynamic impact of monetary policy uncertainty in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    34. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Escaping the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 20238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2019. "Response of the Macroeconomy to Uncertainty Shocks:the Risk Premium Channel," 2019 Meeting Papers 1567, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    36. Murray, James, 2014. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Its Macroeconomic Consequences," MPRA Paper 57409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Muhammad Shahbaz & Arshian Sharif & Fateh Belaid & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2023. "Long‐run co‐variability between oil prices and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1308-1326, April.
    38. Chevaughn van der Westhuizen & Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye, 2023. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness in the Face of Uncertainty: The Real Macroeconomic Impact of a Monetary Policy Shock in South Africa during High and Low Uncertainty States," Working Papers 202331, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    39. Cheng, Maoyong & Meng, Yu & Zhang, Muyang, 2024. "Blessing or bane: The absence of a leader, political selection, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    40. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2024. "Inflation targeting and fiscal policy volatility: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    41. Liu, Zongming & Shi, Wenhui, 2024. "Oil price disaster risk, macroeconomic dynamics and monetary policy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    42. Wang, Yonglian & Wang, Lijun & Pan, Changchun & Hong, Songzhi, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and price pass-through effect of exchange rate in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    43. Idriss Fontaine, 2021. "Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 437-471, April.
    44. Anna Kormilitsina, 2016. "Is Government Spending Predetermined? A Test of Identification for Fiscal Policy Shocks," Departmental Working Papers 1607, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    45. Caliendo, Frank N. & Guo, Nick L. & Smith, Jason M., 2018. "Policy uncertainty and bank bailouts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 111-125.
    46. Xianbo Zhou & Zhuoran Chen, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks to Consumption under Different Confidence Regimes Based on a Stochastic Uncertainty-in-Mean TVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    47. Supipi Hansika & Priyan Navamohan & Dinuli Gamage & Ridmi Madurawala & Ruwan Jayathilaka, 2025. "Economic uncertainty: a worldwide concern, a causal and cointegrating analysis among high uncertainty countries," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, December.
    48. Wen Xu, 2016. "Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Stochastic Volatility Using Particle Filters," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-13, October.
    49. Alexopoulos, Michelle & Cohen, Jon, 2015. "The power of print: Uncertainty shocks, markets, and the economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 8-28.
    50. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Global financial uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 432-449, April.
    51. Cheng, Hua & Gawande, Kishore & Ongena, Steven & Qi, Shusen, 2021. "Connected banks and economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    52. Trung, Nguyen Ba, 2019. "The spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on the global economy: A global VAR approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 90-110.
    53. Bilenkisi, Fikret, 2024. "Uncertainty, labour force participation and job search," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    54. Emre Sakar & Mahmut Unsal Sasmaz & Ahmet Ozen, 2025. "The Nexus Between Tax Revenue, Economic Policy Uncertainty, and Economic Growth: Evidence from G7 Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-34, July.
    55. Cho, Daeha & Han, Yoonshin & Oh, Joonseok & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks, precautionary pricing, and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    56. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 760, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    57. Alexander Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton, 2018. "A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty," 2018 Meeting Papers 565, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    58. Karamysheva, Madina, 2022. "How do fiscal adjustments work? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    59. Bernardo Candia & James Mitchell & Damjan Pfajfar, 2026. "The Causal Effects of Tariff Uncertainty on Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations and Spending Plans," Working Papers 26-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    60. Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Ian Wright, 2017. "Short and Long Run Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 23676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    61. Xu, Shaofeng, 2016. "Interpreting volatility shocks as preference shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 135-140.
    62. Mavrogiannis, Christos & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2025. "The effects of structural reforms on gross capital inflows in OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    63. Yaron Leitner & Basil Williams, 2023. "Model Secrecy and Stress Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 1055-1095, April.
    64. António Afonso & José Alves & Sofia Monteiro, 2024. "Echoes of Instability: How Geopolitical Risks Shape Government Debt Holdings," Working Papers REM 2024/0333, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    65. Fasani, Stefano & Rossi, Lorenza, 2018. "Are uncertainty shocks aggregate demand shocks?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 142-146.
    66. Chen, Ying & Kimura, Yosuke & Inoue, Kotaro, 2025. "How does managerial perception of uncertainty affect corporate investment during the COVID-19 pandemic: A text mining approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    67. Azad, Nahiyan Faisal & Serletis, Apostolos, 2022. "Spillovers of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty on inflation targeting emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    68. Lukas Freund & Hanbaek Lee & Pontus Rendahl, 2022. "Online Appendix to "The Risk-Premium Channel of Uncertainty: Implications for Unemployment and Inflation"," Online Appendices 21-230, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    69. Hantzsche, Arno, 2022. "Fiscal uncertainty and sovereign credit risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    70. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2018. "Monetary Policy Volatility Shocks in Brazil," Working Papers Series 480, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    71. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Lyes Koliai, 2014. "On the determinants of food price volatility," Post-Print hal-01511900, HAL.
    72. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2016. "Regime Dependent Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Real Growth: A Markov Switching Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 135-155, May.
    73. Lai Wan-Fei & Goh Kim-Leng, 2025. "Loan Loss Provisions and Bank Value in the United States: A Moderation Analysis of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
    74. Rahman, Md Lutfur & Hedström, Axel & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Quantile relationship between Islamic and non-Islamic equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    75. Dong, Ding & Liu, Zheng & Wang, Pengfei, 2025. "Turbulent business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    76. Yoosoon Chang & Ana María Herrera & Elena Pesavento, 2023. "Oil prices uncertainty, endogenous regime switching, and inflation anchoring," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 820-839, September.
    77. Coelli, Federica, 2025. "Trade policy uncertainty and innovation: Evidence from China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    78. Liu, Yang, 2023. "Government debt and risk premia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 18-34.
    79. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta-Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2014. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Working Papers 14-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    80. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2015. "Risk-Sensitive Linear Approximations," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113057, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    81. Segal, Gill, 2019. "A tale of two volatilities: Sectoral uncertainty, growth, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 110-140.
    82. Born, Benjamin & Müller, Gernot & Schularick, Moritz & SedlÃ¡Ä ek, Petr, 2017. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 12454, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    83. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    84. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2024. "Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring," MPRA Paper 119971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    85. Davide Brignone & Luca Gambetti & Martino Ricci, 2025. "Geopolitical risk shocks: when size matters," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 1118, Bank of England.
    86. Edgar Silgado‐Gómez, 2024. "Sovereign Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1985-2018, November.
    87. Elif C. Arbatli & Steven J. Davis & Arata Ito & Naoko Miake, 2017. "Policy Uncertainty In Japan," NBER Working Papers 23411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    88. Adrien Auclert & Ludwig Straub & Matthew Rognlie, 2019. "Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: monetary policy and business cycles in an estimated HANK model," 2019 Meeting Papers 1449, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    89. Han, Zhao, 2021. "Low-frequency fiscal uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 639-657.
    90. Guo, Junjie & Tang, Li & Xie, Shihan & Yin, Penghui, 2025. "Navigating fiscal fog: Household expectations in an uncertain fiscal environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    91. Yujia, Li & Zixiang, Zhu & Ming, Che, 2024. "Exploring the relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and business cycles: Exogenous impulse or endogenous responses?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    92. Marina Azzimonti, 2013. "The political polarization index," Working Papers 13-41, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    93. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Deepa Dhume Datta & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Olesya V. Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Juan M. Londono & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius del Giudice Rodriguez & J, 2020. "What is Certain about Uncertainty?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1294, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
      • Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
    94. Céline Poilly & Fabien Tripier, 2023. "Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2321, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    95. Panagiotis E. Petrakis & Dionysis G. Valsamis & Pantelis C. Kostis, 2014. "Uncertainty Shocks in Eurozone Periphery Countries and Germany," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 8(2), pages 87-106, December.
    96. Thorsten Drautzburg, 2014. "A Narrative Approach to a Fiscal DSGE Model," 2014 Meeting Papers 791, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    97. Tyler Atkinson & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2020. "Complementarity and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Working Papers 2009, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    98. Kiosses, Nikolaos & Leventis, Stergios & Subeniotis, Demetres & Tampakoudis, Ioannis, 2025. "The impact of policy uncertainty on shareholder wealth: Evidence from bank M&A," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    99. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy," Post-Print hal-01549625, HAL.
    100. Tarek A. Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," Working Papers Series 96, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    101. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.
    102. Dario Bonciani & Joonseok Jason Oh, 2019. "The long-run effects of uncertainty shocks," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 802, Bank of England.
    103. Yao, Wenyun & Sang, Yadi & Shen, Yongjian & Han, Pengfei, 2020. "Performance sensitivity of non-executive compensation in China: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 310-320.
    104. Abid, Abir, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and exchange rates in emerging markets: Short and long runs evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    105. Goodness C. Aye, 2019. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity in South Africa: An Asymmetric Analysis," Working Papers 201922, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    106. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2021. "Time-varying uncertainty and variance risk premium," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    107. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2022. "Uncertainty Before and During COVID-19: A Survey," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0279, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    108. Gao, Xue & Zhang, Fang & Jiang, Siyang, 2025. "Adapting to policy changes: How firms' R&D responses affect their performance," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1).
    109. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    110. Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão Rodrigues, 2021. "Uncertainty and Effectiveness of Public Consumption," Working Papers REM 2021/0180, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    111. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Comovement In Buying Versus Renting In The Usa," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(3), pages 93-121, September.
    112. Mallea, Facundo Luna, 2026. "Climate policy uncertainty and macroeconomic dynamics: Financial amplification and state-dependent effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    113. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Emanuele Brancati & Marco Brianti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2019. "Populism, Political Risk and the Economy: Lessons from Italy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 989, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 28 Apr 2020.
    114. Marcelo A. T. Aragão & Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2023. "A Little Less Uncertain about the Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity," Working Papers Series 585, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    115. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Uncertainty-dependent Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Keynesian Interpretation," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0219, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    116. Martin Seneca, 2020. "Risk Shocks and Monetary Policy in the New Normal," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 185-232, December.
    117. Md. Monirul Islam & Kazi Sohag, 2025. "Trading in Turbulent Times: Unravelling the Interplay between Trade Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitics in Russian Mineral Resource Supply," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 60(3), pages 267-290, August.
    118. Dario Bonciani & Martino Ricci, 2020. "The global effects of global risk and uncertainty," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 863, Bank of England.
    119. Onur Polat, 2021. "Time-Varying Network Connectedness of G-7 Economic Policy Uncertainties: A Locally Stationary TVP-VAR Approach," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 7(2), pages 47-59, December.
    120. Croce, Mariano & Nguyen, Thien & Raymond, Steve, 2019. "Persistent Government Debt and Aggregate Risk Distribution," CEPR Discussion Papers 13922, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    121. Bayer, Christian & Tjaden, Volker & Pham-Do, Lien & Lütticke, Ralph, 2015. "Precautionary Savings, Illiquid Assets, and the Aggregate Consequences of Shocks to Household Income Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 10849, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    122. Guirola, Luis, 2025. "Economic expectations under the shadow of party polarization: Evidence from 135 government changes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    123. Sawadogo, Rayangnewendé Frans, 2024. "Do fiscal rules shape private-sector investment decisions?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    124. Martin M. Andreasen & Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2021. "Why Does Risk Matter More in Recessions than in Expansions?," Economics Working Papers 2021-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    125. Pástor, Luboš & Allen, Franklin, 2018. "The Capital Markets Union: Key Challenges," CEPR Discussion Papers 12761, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    126. Ghironi, Fabio & Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2025. "Interest rate uncertainty as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    127. Sinem Hacioglu Hoke, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of political risk shocks," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 841, Bank of England.
    128. Hikaru Saijo, 2018. "Redistribution and Fiscal Uncertainty Shocks," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    129. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2011. "Supply-Side Policies and the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 17543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    130. Chen, Xiaoyu & Chiang, Thomas C., 2020. "Empirical investigation of changes in policy uncertainty on stock returns—Evidence from China’s market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    131. Pablo A Guerron-Quintana & James M Nason, 2012. "Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models," CAMA Working Papers 2012-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    132. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    133. Born, Benjamin & Peifer, Johannes, 2011. "Policy Risk and the Business Cycle," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 06/2011, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    134. Tarek A. Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence Van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2024. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 413-458, February.
    135. Che, Ming & Wang, Li & Li, Yujia, 2024. "Global economic policy uncertainty and oil price uncertainty: Which is more important for global economic activity?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    136. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2014. "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 166, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    137. Gabriel P. Mathy & Nicholas L. Ziebarth, 2014. "How Much Does Political Uncertainty Matter? The Case of Louisiana Under Huey Long," Working Papers 2014-06, American University, Department of Economics.
    138. Tarek Alexander Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2020. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-332, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    139. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    140. Hong Chen & Diviya Narayan & Baljeet Singh, 2026. "Re-Visiting the Debt–Output Nexus from the Perspectives of Long-Term Trend and Short-Term Volatility: An Application of the Threshold Model," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 29(1), pages 97-118, February.
    141. Rosella Levaggi & Francesco Menoncin & Andrea Modena, 2025. "May Tax Evasion Help Control Public Debt?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_623, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    142. Rohan Kekre & Moritz Lenel, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Redistribution, and Risk Premia," Working Papers 2020-02, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    143. Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "The Consequences of Uncertain Debt Targets," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-18, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    144. Goodness C. Aye & Matthew W. Clance & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks on U.S. Inequality: The Role of Uncertainty," Working Papers 201782, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    145. Ravenna, Federico & Pellegrino, Giovanni & Züllig, Gabriel, 2020. "The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 15321, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    146. Valeriu Nalban & Andra Smadu, 2020. "Financial disruptions and heightened uncertainty: a case for timely policy action," Working Papers 687, DNB.
    147. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 433-447.
    148. Bettarelli, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Pizzuto, Pietro & Yarveisi, Khatereh, 2024. "Regional fiscal spillovers: The role of trade linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    149. Muhsin Ali & Karim Khan, 2020. "Volatility in Discretionary Public Spending and Economic Growth: A Cross Country Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 45-68.
    150. Mufang Xie, 2025. "Economic policy uncertainty and credit risk in microfinance: A cross‐country analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 1969-1985, April.
    151. Davis, Steven & Bloom, Nicholas & Baker, Scott, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 10900, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    152. Jessica Baker & Simon Kirby & Oriol Carreras & Jack Meaning & Rebecca Piggott, 2016. "Modelling events: the short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 461, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    153. Seabelo T Nyawo & Roscoe Bertrum van Wyk, 2018. "The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro-Economy of Developed and Developing Countries," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(1), pages 33-41.
    154. Born, Benjamin & Peter, Alexandra & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2013. "Fiscal news and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2582-2601.
    155. Born, Benjamin & Müller, Gernot & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2020. "Uncertainty shocks in currency unions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15579, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    156. Oh, Joonseok & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2020. "Macro Uncertainty and Unemployment Risk," Working Paper Series 395, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    157. Silgado-Gómez, Edgar, 2022. "Sovereign Uncertainty," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    158. Nalban, Valeriu & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of uncertainty shocks: Normal times and financial disruptions are different," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    159. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 278-296, January.
    160. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Wing-Keung Wong, 2021. "Sustainability of Global Economic Policy and Stock Market Returns in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    161. Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in PacificRim countries: Evidence based on a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-102.
    162. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay C. Lim, 2018. "What Do We Know about the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers," CESifo Working Paper Series 7366, CESifo.
    163. Popp, Aaron & Zhang, Fang, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks: The role of the financial channel," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 319-349.
    164. Klodiana Istrefi & A. Piloiu, 2014. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Working papers 511, Banque de France.
    165. Ravenna, Federico & Cacciatore, Matteo, 2020. "Uncertainty, Wages, and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 14715, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    166. Gächter, Martin & Geiger, Martin & Stöckl, Sebastian, 2020. "Credit intermediation and the transmission of macro-financial uncertainty: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    167. Xiang, Jingjie & Li, Li, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty, debt financing cost and real economic activities: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1025-1044.
    168. Yıldırım-Karaman, Seçil, 2018. "Uncertainty in financial markets and business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 329-339.
    169. Bas Aarle & Cindy Moons, 2017. "Sentiment and Uncertainty Fluctuations and Their Effects on the Euro Area Business Cycle," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(2), pages 225-251, November.
    170. Pries, Michael J., 2016. "Uncertainty-driven labor market fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 181-199.
    171. Anna Belianska & Aurélien Eyquem & Céline Poilly, 2021. "The Transmission Channels of Government Spending Uncertainty," Working Papers halshs-03160370, HAL.
    172. Mobeen Ur Rehman & Wafa Ghardallou & Nasir Ahmad & Xuan Vinh Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2024. "Does effect of risk and uncertainties on US sectoral returns differ across different investment horizons and market conditions," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(1), pages 1-49, February.
    173. Bianchi, Francesco & Melosi, Leonardo, 2019. "The dire effects of the lack of monetary and fiscal coordination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-22.
    174. Lester, Robert & Pries, Michael & Sims, Eric, 2014. "Volatility and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 17-36.
    175. P. Manasse & G. Moramarco & G. Trigilia, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Political Uncertainty: The Brexit Case," Working Papers wp1141, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    176. Beckmann, Joscha & Bettendorf, Timo, 2025. "On the effects of global uncertainty shocks on portfolio flows," Discussion Papers 23/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    177. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 314-319.
    178. Miss Stephanie Denis & Mr. Prakash Kannan, 2013. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy," IMF Working Papers 2013/066, International Monetary Fund.
    179. Lin, Jietong & Wang, Xin & Xu, Mingzhi, 2024. "Industrial policy persistence and local economic performance: The role of subsidy allocation in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    180. Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2017. "Incertidumbre acerca de la política fiscal y ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 1008, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    181. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2017. "Political Cycles and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 23184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    182. Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Advances in nowcasting economic activity: The role of heterogeneous dynamics and fat tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    183. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Born, Benjamin & Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian, 2019. "Time-varying business volatility and the price setting of firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 82-99.
    184. Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson & Kazuki Tomioka, 2021. "Empirical Evidence on the Dynamics of Investment Under Uncertainty in the U.S," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1193-1217, October.
    185. Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Policy uncertainty, lender of last resort and the real economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 381-398.
    186. Jingjing Fan & Feng Shi & Junzhu Zhao & Jingming Zhu, 2023. "Trade Policy Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Monetary Policy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 24(1), pages 193-211, May.
    187. Martin Seneca, 2017. "Risk Shocks Close to the Zero Lower Bound," 2017 Meeting Papers 107, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    188. Rauh, C., 2026. "Text-Based Measurement of Regional Economic Information," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2657, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    189. Sun, Yizhong & Zhou, Lanxuanjie & Wang, Deyong & Jin, Keyan & Wu, Qingyang & Wu, Ran, 2024. "How economic policy uncertainty affects common prosperity in China? The mediating role of green finance and the moderating role of low-carbon technology," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    190. Sheung-Chi Chow & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Wing-Keung Wong, 2016. "Causal Relationships between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Housing Market Returns in China and India: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Panel and Time Series Models," Working Papers 201674, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    191. Kučera, Adam & Kočenda, Evžen & Maršál, Aleš, 2025. "Yield curve dynamics and fiscal policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    192. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    193. Yeonggyu Yun & Hye-Young Jung, 2020. "Effects of Uncertainty Shocks on Household Consumption and Working Hours: A Fuzzy Cognitive Map-Based Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-13, June.
    194. Simon Berset & Martin Huber & Mark Schelker, 2021. "The Fiscal Response to Revenue Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 8854, CESifo.
    195. Jerow, Sam & Wolff, Jonathan, 2022. "Fiscal policy and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    196. Carolin Pflueger & Emil Siriwardane & Adi Sunderam, 2019. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 26290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    197. Ahmed, Ali & Granberg, Mark & Troster, Victor & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Asymmetric Dynamics between Uncertainty and Unemployment Flows in the United States," LiU Working Papers in Economics 7, Linköping University, Division of Economics, Department of Management and Engineering.
    198. Brand, Thomas & Isoré, Marlène & Tripier, Fabien, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks and firm creation: Search and monitoring in the credit market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 19-53.
    199. Belke, Ansgar & Goemans, Pascal, 2019. "Uncertainty and non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: A SEIVAR-based analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 826, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    200. João Tovar Jalles, 2024. "Total factor productivity and structural reforms: Evidence from advanced economies sector‐level data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 92(2), pages 122-147, March.
    201. Steven J. Davis, 2016. "An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 22740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    202. Jieqiong Wang & Xiao Zhang & Mingjie Dai, 2021. "Influences of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Social Responsibility Information Disclosure," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 23(58), pages 843-843, August.
    203. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    204. Hauzenberger, Niko & Böck, Maximilian & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Stelzer, Anna & Zens, Gregor, 2018. "Implications of macroeconomic volatility in the Euro area," ESRB Working Paper Series 80, European Systemic Risk Board.
    205. Giovanni Callegari & Francesco Drudi & Keith Kuester, 2017. "The fiscal mix in the euro-area crisis: dimensions and a model-based assessment of effects," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(89), pages 127-169.
    206. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Joël Marbet & Galo Nuño Barrau & Omar Rachedi, 2024. "Inequality and the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 1160, Bank for International Settlements.
    207. Casey B. Mulligan, 2013. "Uncertainty, Redistribution, and the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 19553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    208. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Theshne Kisten, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in South Africa: The Role of Financial Regimes," Working Papers 202046, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    209. Rodríguez-López, Jesús & Solis-Garcia, Mario, 2024. "On the decline in the magnitude of the expenditure multiplier," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(6), pages 1313-1345, September.
    210. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2012. "Risk and uncertainty," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 9-18.
    211. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    212. Francisco (F.) Blasques & Marc Nientker, 2019. "Transformed Perturbation Solutions for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-012/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Feb 2020.
    213. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“A geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty by a metric of disagreement among qualitative expectations”," IREA Working Papers 201806, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    214. Györfy Lehel & Madaras Szilárd, 2019. "The Influence of Self-Employment on Early-Stage Entrepreneurship in Romania. A Global Entrepreneurship Monitor-Based Analysis," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Paradigm, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, December.
    215. Cosmas Dery & Apostolos Serletis, 2021. "Disentangling the Effects of Uncertainty, Monetary Policy and Leverage Shocks on the Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1029-1065, October.
    216. Bernstein, Joshua & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2021. "Cyclical net entry and exit," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    217. Rongwu Zhang & Lan Luo & Jianjun Du, 2023. "The influence of fiscal policy uncertainty on corporate total factor productivity: Evidence from Chinese public companies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 532-554, July.
    218. Nils M. Gornemann & Keith Kuester & Makoto Nakajima, 2021. "Doves for the Rich, Hawks for the Poor? Distributional Consequences of Systematic Monetary Policy," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 50, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    219. Kamalyan, Hayk & Davtyan, Vahagn, 2022. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Business Cycle Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 113443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    220. Christos Shiamptanis, 2014. "Risk Assessment Under A Nonlinear Fiscal Policy Rule," LCERPA Working Papers lm0063, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Jun 2014.
    221. Vivek Sharma & Edgar Silgado-Gómez, 2019. "Sovereign Spread Volatility and Banking Sector," CEIS Research Paper 454, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Mar 2019.
    222. Lien, Donald & Sun, Yuchen & Zhang, Chengsi, 2021. "Uncertainty, confidence, and monetary policy in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1347-1358.
    223. Yi Zhang & Mengyang Wang & Tao Shi & Huan Huang & Qi Huang, 2023. "Health Damage of Air Pollution, Governance Uncertainty and Economic Growth," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-21, February.
    224. Anna Orlik & Laura Veldkamp, 2014. "Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans," NBER Working Papers 20445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    225. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Productive capacities, structural economic vulnerability and fiscal space volatility in developing countries," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 45(3), pages 25-48.
    226. Born, Benjamin & Breuer, Sebastian & Elstner, Steffen, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Great Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 12083, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    227. McKay, Alisdair, 2017. "Time-varying idiosyncratic risk and aggregate consumption dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-14.
    228. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir & Kostas Mouratidis, 2011. "Real effects of inflation uncertainty in the US," Working Papers 2011002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    229. Xu, Qinhua & Fu, Buben & Wang, Bin, 2022. "The effects of oil price uncertainty on China’s economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    230. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Carlos Berrout-Amezaga & Thierry Betti, 2026. "The Cost of Political Instability: Fiscal Noise and Economic Fluctuations," Working Papers of BETA 2026-10, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    231. Dario Bonciani & Andrea Tafuro, 2018. "The Effects of Uncertainty Shocks on Daily Prices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 89-104, April.
    232. Basha, Shabeen Afsar & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Ben-Nasr, Hamdi & Masum, Abdullah-Al, 2025. "Does political risk exacerbate climate risk? Firm-level evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).
    233. Andreasen, Martin M. & Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2024. "Does risk matter more in recessions than in expansions? Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    234. Chin, Tachia & Li, Zhisheng & Huang, Leping & Li, Xinyu, 2025. "How artificial intelligence promotes new quality productive forces of firms: A dynamic capability view," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    235. Dong, Zhiqiang & Wang, Xiaobing & Zhang, Tianhua & Zhong, Yuejun, 2022. "The effects of local government leadership turnover on entrepreneurial behavior," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    236. Michael Plante & Nora Traum, 2012. "Time-Varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates," CAEPR Working Papers 2012-002, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    237. Mumtaz, Haroon & Ruch, Franz Ulrich, 2023. "Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Fluctuations : Evidence from Emerging and Developed Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10564, The World Bank.
    238. Choi, Sangyup, 2017. "Variability in the effects of uncertainty shocks: New stylized facts from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 127-144.
    239. Baker, Scott R. & Davis, Steven J. & Levy, Jeffrey A., 2022. "State-level economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 81-99.
    240. Peter Claeys & Borek Vasicek, 2017. "Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks: Learning from Heterogeneous Responses on a Panel of EU Countries," Working Papers 2017/13, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    241. Keijsers, Bart & van Dijk, Dick, 2025. "Does economic uncertainty predict real activity in real time?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 748-762.
    242. Marina Azzimonti, 2019. "Partisan Conflict, News, and Investors' Expectations," Department of Economics Working Papers 19-07, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    243. Jesús Rodríguez-López & Mario Solís-García, 2020. "On the Magnitude of the Expenditure Multiplier," Working Papers 20.05, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    244. Marcelo Ochoa, 2013. "Volatility, labor heterogeneity and asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-71, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    245. Collins C. Ngwakwe, 2017. "Analysis of the Role of Export Value on the Reserve of South Africa," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(4), pages 5-14, AUGUST.
    246. Caliendo, Frank N. & Gorry, Aspen & Slavov, Sita, 2019. "The cost of uncertainty about the timing of Social Security reform," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 101-125.
    247. Moreno-Pérez, Carlos & Minozzo, Marco, 2024. "‘Making text talk’: The minutes of the Central Bank of Brazil and the real economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    248. Ascari, Guido & Fasani, Stefano & Grazzini, Jakob & Rossi, Lorenza, 2023. "Endogenous uncertainty and the macroeconomic impact of shocks to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 48-63.
    249. Hafedh Bouakez & Foued Chihi & Michel Normandin, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and External Adjustment: New Evidence," Cahiers de recherche 1123, CIRPEE.
    250. Vu, Phuong Thi Thu & Huynh, Nhan & Phan, Hoa & Hoang, Hanh, 2023. "Financial earthquakes and aftershocks: From Brexit to Russia-Ukraine conflict and the stability of European banks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    251. Restrepo-Ángel, Sergio & Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Ospina-Tejeiro, Juan J., 2022. "Multipliers of taxes and public spending in Colombia: SVAR and local projections approaches," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(3).
    252. Igor Kotlán & Daniel Němec & Zuzana Machová, 2019. "Právní nejistota v daňové oblasti a její dopady na nabídku práce v České republice [Legal Uncertainty in Taxation and Its Impacts on Labour Supply in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(4), pages 371-384.
    253. Vegard H ghaug Larsen, 2017. "Components of Uncertainty," Working Papers No 4/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    254. Fu, Buben & Luo, Daqing, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and bank leverage: Evidence from China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    255. Kyoto Yono & Hiroki Sakaji & Hiroyasu Matsushima & Takashi Shimada & Kiyoshi Izumi, 2020. "Construction of Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices for Financial Market Analysis Using a Supervised Topic Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-18, April.
    256. Ding, Sai & Jiang, Wei & Li, Shengyu & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2024. "Fiscal policy volatility and capital misallocation: Evidence from China," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    257. Bhatia, Vaneet & Pareek, Bhuvanesh & Das, Debojyoti, 2024. "Uncertainty of fiscal policy and corporate leverage decisions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    258. Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 163-178, October.
    259. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    260. Alloza, Mario, 2016. "Is fiscal policy more effective in uncertain times or during recessions?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86179, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    261. Alessio Anzuini & Luca Rossi, 2021. "Fiscal policy in the US: a new measure of uncertainty and its effects on the American economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2613-2634, November.
    262. Can Xu & Andreas Steiner & Jakob Haan, 2025. "Does uncertainty matter for private credit convergence?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(3), pages 1071-1112, August.
    263. Fujiwara, Ippei & Waki, Yuichiro, 2020. "Fiscal forward guidance: A case for selective transparency," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 236-248.
    264. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    265. Hinterlang, Natascha & Tänzer, Alina, 2021. "Optimal monetary policy using reinforcement learning," Discussion Papers 51/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    266. António Afonso & José Alves & Sofia Monteiro, 2024. "The pressure is on: how geopolitical tensions impact institutional fiscal and external stability responses," Working Papers REM 2024/0318, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    267. Xuejun Jin & Xue Zhou & Xiaolan Yang, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect the relationship between household debt and consumption?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(5), pages 4783-4806, December.
    268. Redl, Chris, 2020. "Uncertainty matters: Evidence from close elections," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    269. Thomas Grennes, 2013. "Diminishing Quality of Fiscal Institutions in the United States and European Union," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 33(1), pages 91-109, Winter.
    270. Corinna Ghirelli & María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2021. "Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 869-892, February.
    271. Lu, Chao & Yang, Meng & Xia, Xiaoxue, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and default risk: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 821-836.
    272. Jesús Rodríguez-López & Mario Solís-García, 2018. "Defense spending and fiscal multipliers: it's all in the variance," Working Papers 18.06, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    273. Patricia Gómez-González & Daniel Rees, 2013. "Stochastic Terms of Trade Volatility in Small Open Economies," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    274. Bretscher, Lorenzo & Hsu, Alex & Tamoni, Andrea, 2020. "Fiscal policy driven bond risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 53-73.
    275. Mustafa Ahmed Hamed Mansour & Salem Hamad Aldawsari, 2026. "Quantifying the Spillover Effect of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on Economic Growth of BRICS: A Panel Data Investigation," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 30(1), pages 72-102, March.
    276. Freund, L. B. & Lee, H. & Rendahl, P., 2022. "The Risk-Premium Channel of Uncertainty: Implications for Unemployment and Inflation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2251, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    277. Brian Piper, 2014. "Factor-Specific Productivity," Working Papers 1401, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    278. Andrea Carriero & Alessio Volpicella, 2022. "Generalizing the Max Share Identification to multiple shocks identification: an Application to Uncertainty," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0322, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    279. Zheng Liu & Sylvain Leduc, 2013. "Uncertainty Shocks Are Aggregate Demand Shocks," 2013 Meeting Papers 270, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    280. Schmidt, Jörg, 2020. "Risk, asset pricing and monetary policy transmission in Europe: Evidence from a threshold-VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    281. Ille, Sebastian & Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Sanchez Carrera, Edgar J., 2025. "On the stressful interaction of monetary and fiscal targets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    282. Yaron Leitner & Basil Williams, 2018. "Model Secrecy and Stress Tests," 2018 Meeting Papers 566, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    283. Rui Wang, 2019. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Japan: Empirical Evidence from Estimated Shadow Rate DSGE Model," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-29, June.
    284. Segal, Gill & Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2023. "Uncertainty, risk, and capital growth," SAFE Working Paper Series 388, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    285. Denis Gorea & Ding Xuan Ng & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2026. "Financial and real effects of fiscal risk," BIS Working Papers 1364, Bank for International Settlements.
    286. Klodiana Istrefi & Sarah Mouabbi, 2017. "Subjective Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: A Cross-country Analysis," Working papers 619, Banque de France.
    287. Hsu, Sara & Fan, Zhihao, 2022. "Policy and media forces that shape the creation of Chinese state-owned enterprise policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1232-1250.
    288. Goodness C. Aye & Christina Christou & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Forecasting the Probability of Recessions in South Africa: The Role of Decomposed Term-Spread and Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201680, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    289. Azqueta-Gavaldón, Andrés, 2017. "Developing news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty index with unsupervised machine learning," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 47-50.
    290. Niu, Zibo & Wang, Chenlu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility with various geopolitical risks categories: New evidence from machine learning models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    291. Qing Liu & Guoyu Ding & Kedong Shu, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty, firm carbon emissions and regional heterogeneity: evidence from China's exporters," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 73(2), pages 521-555, August.
    292. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2013. "The economics of small open economies," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 9-18.
    293. Anastasiia Antonova & Mykhailo Matvieiev & Céline Poilly, 2026. "Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 26-12, Bank of Canada.
    294. Silvia Delrio, 2016. "Estimating the effects of global uncertainty in open economies," Working Papers 2016:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    295. Bonciani, Dario & Roye, Björn van, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions and economic activity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 200-219.
    296. Georgios Kavetsos & Ichiro Kawachi & Ilias Kyriopoulos & Sotiris Vandoros, 2021. "The effect of the Brexit referendum result on subjective well‐being," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(2), pages 707-731, April.
    297. Roman Sustek, 2021. "Yield curve and the business cycle in conventional times," Discussion Papers 2122, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    298. Jing Chen & Junxiong Fang & Chunqiu Zhang & Yi Zhou, 2023. "Homemade international diversification under economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 31-62, February.
    299. Francesco Zanetti, 2015. "Financial Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers Number-746, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    300. Pagliacci, Carolina, 2020. "Financial constraints and inflation in Latin America: The impacts of bond financing and depreciations on supply inflation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 379-397.
    301. Yugang He & Zhuoqi Teng, 2024. "Navigating Uncharted Waters: The Transformation of the Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy in Response to Global Economic Uncertainty," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, May.
    302. Fried, Stephie & Novan, Kevin & Peterman, William B., 2022. "Climate policy transition risk and the macroeconomy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    303. Josef Hollmayr & Christian Matthes, 2013. "Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty," Working Paper 13-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    304. Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Tony Yates, 2013. "Risk news shocks and the business cycle," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 483, Bank of England.
    305. Bandi, Federico M. & Bretscher, Lorenzo & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Return predictability with endogenous growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    306. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of US Uncertainty on the Euro Area in Good and Bad Times: Evidence from a Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201681, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    307. Ruediger Bachmann & Jinhui Bai & Minjoon Lee & Fudong Zhang, 2020. "The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: a Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 127-153, October.
    308. Xiaohui Chen & Yiqing He, 2022. "The Impact of Financial Resilience and Steady Growth on High-Quality Economic Development—Based on a Heterogeneous Intermediary Effect Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-19, November.
    309. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2023. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    310. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2014. "The Changing Transmission of Uncertainty shocks in the US: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 735, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    311. Goodness C. Aye, 2019. "Short and Long Run Asymmetric Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Uncertainty on Economic Activity in the U.S," Working Papers 201923, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    312. Poilly, Céline & Tripier, Fabien, 2025. "Reprint of: Regional trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    313. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez, 2020. "How do the Tax Burden and the Fiscal Space in Latin America look like? Evidence through Laffer Curves," Borradores de Economia 1117, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    314. Sangyup Choi & Chansik Yoon, 2019. "Uncertainty, Financial Markets, and Monetary Policy over the Last Century," Working papers 2019rwp-142, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    315. Marco Brianti, 2021. "Financial Shocks, Uncertainty Shocks, and Monetary Policy Trade-Offs," Working Papers 2021-05, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    316. Ying Tung Chan, 2019. "The Environmental Impacts and Optimal Environmental Policies of Macroeconomic Uncertainty Shocks: A Dynamic Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-26, September.
    317. Pratiti Chatterjee & David Gunawan & Robert Kohn, 2020. "The Interaction Between Credit Constraints and Uncertainty Shocks," Papers 2004.14719, arXiv.org.
    318. Carolina Pagliacci, 2019. "Are we ignoring supply shocks? A proposal for monitoring cyclical fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 445-467, February.
    319. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    320. Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme, 2022. "On the aggregate effects of global uncertainty: Evidence from an emerging economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 390-407, September.
    321. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    322. Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2020. "Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-387, May.
    323. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "The international transmission of volatility shocks: an empirical analysis," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 463, Bank of England.
    324. Alexander M. Dietrich & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller & Raphael S. Schoenle, 2020. "News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 004, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    325. Liu, Yun & Zhang, Yifei & Yang, Yuxin & Chen, Xin, 2023. "Dark side of environmental regulation: Wage inequality cost," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 524-544.
    326. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    327. Anzuini, Alessio & Rossi, Luca & Tommasino, Pietro, 2020. "Fiscal policy uncertainty and the business cycle: Time series evidence from Italy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    328. Taisuke Nakata, 2013. "Uncertainty at the zero lower bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    329. Anh Nguyen, 2015. "Financial frictions and the volatility of monetary policy in a DSGE model," Working Papers 75949436, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    330. De Graeve, Ferre & Queijo von Heideken, Virginia, 2013. "Identifying Fiscal Inflation," Working Paper Series 273, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    331. Arango-Castillo, Lenin & Orraca, María José & Molina, G. Stefano, 2023. "The global component of headline and core inflation in emerging market economies and its ability to improve forecasting performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    332. Sanha Noh, 2020. "Posterior Inference on Parameters in a Nonlinear DSGE Model via Gaussian-Based Filters," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(4), pages 795-841, December.
    333. Wang, Jie & Hu, Jiukai & Yu, Bo, 2025. "Risk spillover effects among Chinese policy, economy and financial markets: Evidence from mixed-frequency data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 2263-2277.
    334. Kwangwon Ahn & Hanwool Jang & Daeyong Lee, 2026. "Impact of Monetary Policy on Corporate Defaults and Associated Welfare Costs," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 67(4), pages 2697-2729, April.
    335. Magnus Reif, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," ifo Working Paper Series 265, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    336. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    337. Jiang, Yonghong & Wu, Lanxin & Tian, Gengyu & Nie, He, 2021. "Do cryptocurrencies hedge against EPU and the equity market volatility during COVID-19? – New evidence from quantile coherency analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    338. Chikhale, Nisha, 2023. "The effects of uncertainty shocks: Implications of wealth inequality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    339. Di Pace, Federico & Mangiante, Giacomo & Masolo, Riccardo M., 2025. "Do firm expectations respond to monetary policy announcements?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    340. Feng, Yusen & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhu, You & Xie, Chi, 2023. "Systemic risk spillovers and the determinants in the stock markets of the Belt and Road countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    341. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-1154, December.
    342. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Effective lower bound risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    343. Opp, Marcus M. & Parlour, Christine A. & Walden, Johan, 2014. "Markup cycles, dynamic misallocation, and amplification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 126-161.
    344. Jongrim Ha & Seohyun Lee & Inhwan So, 2022. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Evidence from Geopolitical Swings on the Korean Peninsula," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 21-56, February.
    345. Bonsall, Samuel B. & Green, Jeremiah & Muller, Karl A., 2020. "Market uncertainty and the importance of media coverage at earnings announcements," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    346. Liu, Feifei & He, Xinming & Wang, Tao, 2023. "In the name of the family: The effect of CEO clan culture background on firm internationalization," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    347. Hans Dewachter & Raf Wouters, 2012. "Endogenous risk in a DSGE model with capital-constrained financial intermediaries," Working Paper Research 235, National Bank of Belgium.
    348. Kandoussi, Malak & Langot, François, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    349. Renato Faccini & Edoardo Palombo, 2019. "News Uncertainty in Brexit U.K," Discussion Papers 1921, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    350. Xu, Shaofeng, 2017. "Volatility risk and economic welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 17-33.
    351. Chatterjee, Pratiti, 2024. "Uncertainty shocks, financial frictions, and business cycle asymmetries across countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    352. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    353. Klodiana Istrefi & Anamaria Piloiu, 2020. "Public Opinion on Central Banks when Economic Policy is Uncertain," Working papers 765, Banque de France.
    354. Firooz, Hamid & Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2025. "Reshoring, automation, and labor markets under trade uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    355. Nakata, Taisuke, 2016. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy with occasionally binding zero bound constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 220-240.
    356. Strobel, Johannes & Lee, Gabriel & Dorofeenko, Victor & Salyer, Kevin, 2019. "Time-Varying Risk Shocks and the Zero Lower Bound," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203491, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    357. Luis Ceballos & Damián Romero, 2014. "Risk Matters: The Impact of Nominal Uncertainty in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 741, Central Bank of Chile.
    358. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Domestic and Global Uncertainty: A Survey and Some New Results," CESifo Working Paper Series 7900, CESifo.
    359. Li, Yi & Zhou, Bing, 2026. "Research on the impact of extreme climate on financial asset price —based on the DSGE model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    360. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack & Hankins, William B. & Stone, Anna-Leigh, 2026. "The impact of financial uncertainty shocks on firm creation across US states," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    361. Jessica L. Darby & David J. Ketchen & Brent D. Williams & Travis Tokar, 2020. "The Implications of Firm‐Specific Policy Risk, Policy Uncertainty, and Industry Factors for Inventory: A Resource Dependence Perspective," Journal of Supply Chain Management, Institute for Supply Management, vol. 56(4), pages 3-24, October.
    362. Minchul Shin & Molin Zhong, 2016. "A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    363. Yıldırım-Karaman, Secil, 2017. "Uncertainty shocks, central bank characteristics and business cycles," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 379-388.
    364. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "International Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: An Empirical Approach," Working Papers No 12/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    365. Grossmann, Axel & Ngo, Thanh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and ADR mispricing," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    366. Christian Schoder, 2017. "Estimating Keynesian models of business fluctuations using Bayesian Maximum Likelihood," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 586–630-5, October.
    367. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Economic Uncertainty: A Geometric Indicator of Discrepancy Among Experts’ Expectations," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 95-114, May.
    368. Mindaugas Butkus & Diana Cibulskiene & Lina Garsviene & Janina Seputiene, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Public Debt–Growth Relationship: The Role of the Expenditure Multiplier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, April.
    369. Croce, Mariano & Bansal, Ravi & Liao, Wenxi & Rosen, Samuel, 2019. "Uncertainty-Induced Reallocations and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 13964, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    370. Breitenlechner, Max & Geiger, Martin & Scharler, Johann, 2022. "Bank liquidity and the propagation of uncertainty in the U.S," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    371. Mikkelsen, Jakob & Poeschl, Johannes, 2019. "Banking Panic Risk and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 94729, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    372. Guerino Ardizzi & Simone Emiliozzi & Juri Marcucci & Libero Monteforte, 2019. "News and consumer card payments," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1233, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    373. Oh, Joonseok & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2024. "Macro uncertainty, unemployment risk, and consumption dynamics," Working Paper Series 2971, European Central Bank.
    374. Croce, M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Raymond, S., 2021. "Persistent government debt and aggregate risk distribution," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 347-367.
    375. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Ng, Serena, 2017. "Level and volatility factors in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 52-68.
    376. Zonaira Akbar & Malik Fahim Bashir & Yasir Bin Tariq, 2021. "An analysis of political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles in Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(6), pages 2271-2293, December.
    377. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2072, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    378. Canales, Mario & Lopez-Martin, Bernabe, 2024. "Exchange rates, uncertainty, and price-setting: Evidence from CPI microdata," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    379. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
    380. Quader, Syed Manzur, 2023. "The interplay between uncertainty, managerial decision making, and firm value: Evidence from Bangladesh," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    381. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    382. Yunmi Kim & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2024. "Generalized Impulse and Its Measure," Working papers 2024rwp-226, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    383. Kaiji Chen & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu, 2017. "Debt in the US economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 675-706, December.
    384. Nancy Stokey, 2013. "Uncertainty and Investment Options," 2013 Meeting Papers 251, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    385. Maximilian Langer & Joshua Hassib & Lars P. Feld & Daniel Nientiedt, 2025. "Evaluating the Effects of the German Debt Brake: A Synthetic Control Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 11933, CESifo.
    386. Yanwei Gu & Guancheng Jiang & Xiao Liang, 2022. "The transmission mechanism analysis of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on household consumption," International Studies of Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(3), pages 371-393, September.
    387. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Delrio, Silvia & Kima, Richard, 2021. "Financial uncertainty and real activity: The good, the bad, and the ugly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    388. Ftiti, Zied & Hadhri, Sinda, 2019. "Can economic policy uncertainty, oil prices, and investor sentiment predict Islamic stock returns? A multi-scale perspective," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-55.
    389. Stefan Schiman & Atanas Pekanov, 2020. "Uncertainty in the Euro Area During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66708.
    390. Wang, Mengyu & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Zhang, Hong, 2026. "Policy uncertainty reduces green innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    391. Diogo Abry Guillen & Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2025. "Monetary policy decision making and communication under heightened uncertainty in Brazil," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy decision-making and communication under high uncertainty, volume 127, pages 39-50, Bank for International Settlements.
    392. Andrew T. Foerster, 2014. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-26.
    393. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarčič, Črt, 2020. "The impact of trade policy uncertainty shocks on the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 100832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    394. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2023. "Fiscal stimulus in liquidity traps: Conventional or unconventional policies?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    395. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp & Caballero, Ricardo, 2019. "A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13815, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    396. Xiao-Li Gong & Jin-Yan Lu & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang, 2025. "Liquidity constraints, real estate regulation, and local government debt risks," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, December.
    397. Amna Sohail Rawat, Imtiaz Arif, 2018. "Does Geopolitical Risk Drive Equity Price Returns of BRIC Economies? Evidence from Quantile on Quantile Estimations," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 3(2), pages 24-36, October.
    398. Lucas F. Husted & John H. Rogers & Bo Sun, 2017. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty," International Finance Discussion Papers 1215, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    399. Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Ajevskis, Viktors & Brázdik, František & Garcia, Pablo & Gatt, William & Lima, Diana & Mavromatis, Kostas & Ortega, Eva & Papadopoulou, Niki & De Lorenzo, Ivan & Kolb, Benedikt, 2024. "Using structural models to understand macroeconomic tail risks," Occasional Paper Series 357, European Central Bank.
    400. Steinberg, Joseph B., 2020. "Comment on: “The economic effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty” by Dario Caldara, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 60-64.
    401. Chun Lu & James Routledge & Kam C. Chan & Tongxia Li, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and inventory behavior: Evidence from the US manufacturing sector," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 919-948, November.
    402. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "How uncertain are economic policies? New evidence from a firm survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 114-122.
    403. Nicholas Apergis & Emmanuel Apergis, 2025. "Uncertainty and inflation: The role of COVID-19 stabilisation policies-Evidence from OECD countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-9, February.
    404. Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper & Campbell Leith, 2013. "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations," Staff Working Papers 13-26, Bank of Canada.
    405. Isoré, Marlène & Szczerbowicz, Urszula, 2015. "Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model," MPRA Paper 65643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    406. Llosa, Luis Gonzalo & Pérez-Forero, Fernando J. & Tuesta, Vicente, 2025. "Uncertainty shocks and financial conditions in Latin-American countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    407. Wael Bousselmi & Patrick Sentis & Marc Willinger, 2018. "Impact of the Brexit vote announcement on long-run market performance," Working Papers hal-01954920, HAL.
    408. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    409. Hua Cheng & Kishore Gawande & Steven Ongena & Shusen Qi, 2020. "Get beyond policy uncertainty: Evidence from political connections," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-77, Swiss Finance Institute.
    410. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
    411. Cho, Deaha & Han, Yoonshin & Oh, Joonseok & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2020. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Uncertainty Shocks," Dynare Working Papers 61, CEPREMAP.
    412. Yulu Liang & Ruiling Dong & Ruiyifan Wan & Shenglin Ma & Yongjian Huang & Donghui Pan, 2025. "Perception of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Energy Consumption Intensity: Evidence from Construction Companies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-21, June.
    413. Kim, Wongi, 2019. "Government spending policy uncertainty and economic activity: US time series evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    414. Kristina Bluwstein & Julieta Yung, 2019. "Back to the real economy: the effects of risk perception shocks on the term premium and bank lending," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 806, Bank of England.
    415. Jianchun Fang & Giray Gozgor & James H. Nolt, 2022. "Globalisation, economic uncertainty and labour market regulations: Implications for the COVID‐19 crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 2165-2187, July.
    416. Matteo Cacciatore & Stefano Gnocchi & Daniela Hauser, 2023. "Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 23-29, Bank of Canada.
    417. Falck, Elisabeth & Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2017. "Disagreement and monetary policy," Discussion Papers 29/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    418. Matthew Klepacz, 2018. "Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 145, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    419. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2013. "Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 9694, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    420. Bachmann, Ruediger, 2025. "Quo vadis, USA?," Kiel Reports 4, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    421. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Maliar, Serguei & Naubert, Christopher, 2020. "Household Savings and Monetary Policy under Individual and Aggregate Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 15614, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    422. Arroyo Marioli, Francisco & Fatas, Antonio & Vasishtha, Garima, 2024. "Fiscal policy volatility and growth in emerging markets and developing economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 758-777.
    423. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Policy risks, technological risks and stock returns: New evidence from the US stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 359-365.
    424. Nopphol Witvorapong & Chak Hung Jack Cheng, 2024. "Health care policy uncertainty and state-level employment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(6), pages 2501-2532, June.
    425. Suyi Zheng & Jiandong Wen, 2023. "How Does Firm-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Corporate Innovation? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, April.
    426. Michael Patrick Curran & Adnan Velic, 2017. "Interest Rate Volatility And Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Cross-Country Analysis," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 35, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    427. Ivan Alfaro & Nicholas Bloom & Xiaoji Lin, 2018. "The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier," NBER Working Papers 24571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    428. Md. Monirul Islam & Kazi Sohag & Faheem ur Rehman, 2022. "Do Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Policy Uncertainties Reorient Mineral Imports in the USA? A Fat-Tailed Data Analysis Using Novel Quantile Approaches," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.
    429. De Simone, Lisa & Piotroski, Joseph D. & Tomy, Rimmy E., 2017. "Repatriation Taxes and Foreign Cash Holdings: The Impact of Anticipated Tax Policy," Research Papers 3507, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    430. Camyar, Isa & Ulupinar, Bahar, 2025. "“Geopolitical crises and economic policy uncertainty: Time series analysis from the United States”," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3).
    431. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Fabien Tripier, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from an Uncertainty Composite Indicator," Working Papers 2017-25, CEPII research center.
    432. Kimberly A. Berg & Nam T. Vu, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of sectoral shifts under low and high uncertainty," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1149-1171, July.
    433. Bofinger, Peter & Buch, Claudia M. & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "Gegen eine rückwärtsgewandte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2013/14 [Against a backward-looking economic policy. Annual Report 2013/14]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201314.
    434. Li, Li & Tang, Yao & Xiang, Jingjie, 2020. "Measuring China's monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the real economy," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    435. VASILEVA Steliana, 2025. "The Role Of Artificial Intelligence (Ai) In Shaping Consumer Behavior In E-Commerce In A World Of Economic Uncertainty And Rapid Changes," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 77(4), pages 69-87, December.
    436. Mei-Chih Wang & Pao-Lan Kuo & Chan-Sheng Chen & Chien-Liang Chiu & Tsangyao Chang, 2020. "Yield Spread and Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-14, May.
    437. Shah, Adil Ahmad & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2021. "Are precious metals and equities immune to monetary and fiscal policy uncertainties?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    438. Agbahey, Johanes & Siddig, Khalid & Grethe, Harald & Luckmann, Jonas, 2017. "Trade policy in a sovereign Palestinian State: what are the options in a final settlement?," Conference papers 332814, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    439. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nodari, Gabriela, 2018. "Risk management-driven policy rate gap," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 235-238.
    440. Christian Pierdzioch & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Working Papers 201732, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    441. Cross, Jamie, 2019. "On the reduced macroeconomic volatility of the Australian economy: Good policy or good luck?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 174-186.
    442. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca, 2020. "Fragility and the effect of international uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    443. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n05, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    444. David, Antonio C. & Sever, Can, 2025. "Unpleasant surprises? Elections and tax news shocks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    445. Ludovic Gauvin & Cameron McLoughlin & Dennis Reinhardt, 2014. "Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets – evidence from capital flows," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 512, Bank of England.
    446. Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Policy uncertainty, lender of last resort and the real economy," Working Paper Series 2521, European Central Bank.
    447. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Global risk and the dollar," Working Paper Series 2628, European Central Bank.
    448. Yuan Zhou & Yao Ji, 2021. "Trade Policy Uncertainty, Innovation and Total Factor Productivity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    449. Gabauer, David & Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2025. "The lead–lag relationship of US fiscal policy uncertainty: New evidence from R2 decomposed connectedness measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PF).
    450. Valeriu Nalban & Andra Smadu, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and the monetary-macroprudential policy mix," Working Papers 739, DNB.
    451. Kamalyan, Hayk, 2022. "Data revisions and the effects of monetary policy volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    452. Klodiana Istrefi & Anamaria Piloiu, 2013. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Trust and Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 4294, CESifo.
    453. Zhang, Shuonan, 2026. "Uncertainty shocks in an intangible economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    454. Eddie Gerba & Klemens Hauzenberger, 2013. "Estimating US Fiscal and Monetary Interactions in a Time Varying VAR," Studies in Economics 1303, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    455. Kydland, Finn E. & Zarazaga, Carlos E.J.M., 2016. "Fiscal sentiment and the weak recovery from the Great Recession: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 109-125.
    456. Klaus Abberger & Andreas Dibiasi & Michael Siegenthaler & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "The Effect of Policy Uncertainty on Investment Plans: Evidence from the Unexpected Acceptance of a Far-Reaching Referendum in Switzerland," CESifo Working Paper Series 5887, CESifo.
    457. Levenko, Natalia, 2020. "Perceived uncertainty as a key driver of household saving," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 126-145.
    458. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Comovement in Buying versus Renting in the United States," Working Papers 201832, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    459. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, September.
    460. Verhoeks, Ralph C. & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2024. "Wall street watches Washington: Asset pricing implications of policy uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    461. Jackson Dorsey, 2019. "Waiting for the Courts: Effects of Policy Uncertainty on Pollution and Investment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(4), pages 1453-1496, December.
    462. Tarzibash, Omar Fikrat Fateh & Ozyapici, Hasan & Adaoglu, Cahit, 2025. "Cash holdings in the US healthcare industry: Do different types of uncertainty matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    463. Anastasiia Antonova & Mykhailo Matvieiev & Céline Poilly, 2025. "Macroeconomic Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2538, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    464. Abdulaziz H. Algaeed, 2022. "Government Spending Volatility and Real Economic Growth: Evidence From a Major Oil Producing Country, Saudi Arabia, 1970 to 2018," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    465. Lee, Jungho & Xu, Jianhuan, 2019. "Tax uncertainty and business activity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 158-184.
    466. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Klein, Tony & Jiang, Yong & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2024. "Dynamic spillovers among global oil shocks, economic policy uncertainty, and inflation expectation uncertainty under extreme shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    467. Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein & Safari, Omid & Assadzadeh, Ahmad, 2023. "Measuring Fiscal Policy Uncertainty in Iran," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 18(4), pages 457-496.
    468. Stephie Fried & Kevin Novan & William B. Peterman, 2021. "The Macro Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    469. OH, Joonseok, 2019. "The propagation of uncertainty shocks : Rotemberg vs. Calvo," Economics Working Papers ECO 2019/01, European University Institute.
    470. Scheffel, Eric Michael, 2012. "Political uncertainty in a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 37318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    471. Harding, Martín & Lindé, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "Resolving the missing deflation puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 15-34.
    472. Asad Dossani & John Elder, 2024. "Uncertainty and investment: Evidence from domestic oil rigs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 323-340, February.
    473. Gissler, Stefan & Oldfather, Jeremy & Ruffino, Doriana, 2016. "Lending on hold: Regulatory uncertainty and bank lending standards," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 89-101.
    474. Ambrocio, Gene, 2019. "Measuring household uncertainty in EU countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2019, Bank of Finland.
    475. Rui Albuquerque & Martin Eichenbaum & Victor Xi Luo & Sergio Rebelo, 2016. "Valuation Risk and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(6), pages 2861-2904, December.
    476. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Yang Yu & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "Technological Synergies, Heterogeneous Firms, and Idiosyncratic Volatility," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    477. Christoph Behrens, 2019. "A Nonparametric Evaluation of the Optimality of German Export and Import Growth Forecasts under Flexible Loss," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-23, September.
    478. Liu, Zongming & Shi, Wenhui, 2026. "Global oil supply risk and macro-financial downside risk: Can monetary policy mitigate the risk transmission?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    479. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Common and Country Specific Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers 752, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    480. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Şerban Miclea & Simina Silvana Suciu & Matei Tămăşilă, 2018. "Firm-level investment in the extractive industry from CEE countries: the role of macroeconomic uncertainty and internal conditions," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 193-208, June.
    481. Xiao, Jihong & Jiang, Jiajie & Zhang, Yaojie, 2024. "Policy uncertainty, investor sentiment, and good and bad volatilities in the stock market: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    482. Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2018. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the UK," MPRA Paper 90448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    483. Klaus Abberger & Andreas Dibiasi & Michael Siegenthaler & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "The Effect of Policy Uncertainty on Investment Plans," KOF Working papers 16-406, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    484. Koirala, Niraj Prasad & Ma, Xiaohan, 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and U.S. employment growth," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    485. Balcilar, Mehmet & Usman, Ojonugwa & Gungor, Hasan & Roubaud, David & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Role of global, regional, and advanced market economic policy uncertainty on bond spreads in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    486. Sergio Restrepo-Ángel & Hernán Rincón-Castro & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro, 2020. "Multiplicadores de los impuestos y del gasto público en Colombia: aproximaciones SVAR y proyecciones locales," Borradores de Economia 1114, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    487. Schmid, Lukas & Croce, Mariano & Raymond, Steve & Nguyen, Thiên Tung, 2018. "Government Debt and the Returns to Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12617, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    488. Andrzej Cieślik & Mehmet Burak Turgut, 2024. "Uncertainty and long-run economy: the role of R &D and business dynamism," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1403-1441, April.
    489. Ma, Xiaohan, 2023. "Oil uncertainty and the price-cost markup: Evidence from U.S. data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    490. Cross, Jamie & Kam, Timothy & Poon, Aubrey, 2025. "Volatility shocks in markets and policies: What matters for a small open economy like Canada?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    491. Higgins, C. Richard, 2023. "Risk and Uncertainty: The Role of Financial Frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    492. Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2018. "Downward nominal wage rigidity and state-dependent government spending multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 11-26.
    493. Gong, Xu & Fu, Chengbo & Huang, Qiping & Lin, Meimei, 2022. "International political uncertainty and climate risk in the stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    494. Ahn, Kwangwon & Chu, Zhuang & Lee, Daeyong, 2021. "Effects of renewable energy use in the energy mix on social welfare," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    495. de Groot, Oliver, 2015. "Solving asset pricing models with stochastic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 308-321.
    496. Chan, Ying Tung & Dong, Yilin, 2022. "How does oil price volatility affect unemployment rates? A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    497. Karnizova, Lilia & Li, Jiaxiong (Chris), 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial markets and probability of US recessions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 261-265.
    498. Karanasos, Menelaos & Yfanti, Stavroula & Wu, Jiaying, 2025. "The short- and long-run cyclical variation of the cross-asset nexus: Mixed-frequency evidence on financial and ‘financialised’ assets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    499. Robert L. Czudaj & Joscha Beckmann, 2020. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and its Effects on the Real Economy: German Evidence," Chemnitz Economic Papers 039, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised Oct 2020.
    500. Maennig, Wolfgang & Wilhelm, Stefan, 2023. "News and noise in crime politics: The role of announcements and risk attitudes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    501. Higgins, C. Richard, 2017. "Estimating general equilibrium models with stochastic volatility and changing parameters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 163-170.
    502. Jiang, Yonghong & Ao, Zhiming & Mo, Bin, 2023. "The risk spillover between China’s economic policy uncertainty and commodity markets: Evidence from frequency spillover and quantile connectedness approaches," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    503. Mario Seffino & Germán González, 2025. "Regional institutions, political volatility and their impact on productivity: a Latin American perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1-22, May.
    504. Bergbrant, Mikael C. & Bradley, Daniel & Hunter, Delroy M., 2017. "Does bank loan supply affect the supply of equity capital? Evidence from new share issuance and withdrawal," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 32-45.
    505. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2014. "Uncertainty in a model with credit frictions," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 496, Bank of England.
    506. Dario Caldara & Chiara Scotti & Molin Zhong, 2021. "Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 1326, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    507. Júlia Brunet & Susana Párraga, 2021. "Fiscal rebalancing plans in the medium term: the case of the United Kingdom," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2/2021.
    508. Snarska, Małgorzata & Frydrych, Sylwia & Łukowski, Michał & Czech, Maria & Perez, Katarzyna, 2025. "Semiconductor game of thrones: A comprehensive study of geopolitical and equity market uncertainty transmission," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    509. Адилханова Зарина // Adilkhanova Zarina & Андрусь Юлия // Andrus Yuliya, 2025. "Оценка параметров для DSGE модели // Parameter estimation for DSGE models," Working Papers #2025-5, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    510. Chen, Ying & Zhu, Xuehong & Li, Hailing, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty on non-ferrous metal market: Based on quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    511. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Domestic and Global Uncertainty: A Survey and Some New Results," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    512. Long, Shaobo & Xue, Ning & Zhang, Yuan, 2025. "The divergence of China’s prices under economic policy uncertainty shock: A time-varying perspective," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    513. Juelsrud, Ragnar E. & Wold, Ella Getz, 2019. "The Saving and Employment Effects of Higher Job Loss Risk," Working Paper 2019/17, Norges Bank.
    514. Alessio Anzuini & Luca Rossi, 2018. "Fiscal policy in the US: a new measure of uncertainty and its recent development," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1197, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    515. Shi, Fengyuan & Guo, Yaoqi, 2025. "Differential impact of multiple risks on green and conventional bond markets: Evidence from multifractal analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(PB).
    516. Belke, Ansgar & Volz, Ulrich, 2018. "Capital flows to emerging market and developing economies: global liquidity and uncertainty versus country-specific pull factors," IDOS Discussion Papers 23/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    517. Susanto Basu & Giacomo Candian & Ryan Chahrour & Rosen Valchev, 2021. "Risky Business Cycles," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1029, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 17 Sep 2024.
    518. Ryan, Michael & Holmes, Mark J., 2025. "The effect of uncertainty on output: Instruments, identification, and the role of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    519. Joshua Bernstein & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2021. "Countercyclical Fluctuations in Uncertainty are Endogenous," Working Papers 2109, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    520. Anthony M. Diercks & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2020. "When it Rains it Pours: Cascading Uncertainty Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    521. Takaharu ISHII, 2022. "International uncertainty shocks and central bank quantitative easing under supply shocks," Turkish Economic Review, EconSciences Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 162-242, September.
    522. Nina Biljanovska & Francesco Grigoli & Martina Hengge, 2021. "Fear thy neighbor: Spillovers from economic policy uncertainty," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 409-438, May.
    523. Leonardo Melosi & Francesco Bianchi, 2012. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," 2012 Meeting Papers 44, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    524. Tang, Dapeng & Yang, Yiming & Zheng, Hao & Gebrehans, Mebrahtu Tesfagebreal, 2024. "Does reform policy of municipal bonds raise firm risk? A quasi-natural experiment from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    525. Xiao-Li Gong & Jin-Yan Lu & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang, 2022. "Higher-order dynamic effects of uncertainty risk under thick-tailed stochastic volatility," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    526. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Lambe, Brendan John, 2015. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive CDS spreads?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 447-458.
    527. Wang, Heng & Wei, Siqi & Zhu, Xiaoyang, 2023. "Stand in the wind: Market power reformation during uncertain periods," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 12-28.
    528. Matthew T. Klepacz, 2021. "Price Setting and Volatility: Evidence from Oil Price Volatility Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1316, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    529. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.
    530. Hill, Paula & Korczak, Adriana & Korczak, Piotr, 2019. "Political uncertainty exposure of individual companies: The case of the Brexit referendum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 58-76.
    531. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    532. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Shim, Myungkyu, 2022. "Inflation anchoring and growth: The role of credit constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    533. Aguirre, Idoia & Casares, Miguel, 2024. "The post-COVID inflation episode," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    534. Xinqian Du & Tian Pu, 2025. "U.S. economic uncertainty shocks and extreme capital flows episodes: An empirical analysis of emerging and developing economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 352-368, January.
    535. Pintér, Gábor, 2023. "Inflation and uncertainty in New Keynesian models: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).

  27. Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2011. "Supply-Side Policies and the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 8642, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas Crafts, 2013. "Long-Term Growth in Europe: What Difference does the Crisis Make?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 224(1), pages 14-28, May.
    2. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Andrea Raffo, 2013. "Can structural reforms help Europe?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1092, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Yangyang Ji, 2019. "Are Supply-side Reforms Contractionary at the Zero Lower Bound?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 65(1), pages 68-83.
    4. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2013. "The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic," NBER Working Papers 19062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hafedh Bouakez & Michel Guillard & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2017. "Public Investment, Time to Build, and the Zero Lower Bound," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 60-79, January.
    6. Leonardo Melosi & Francesco Bianchi, 2017. "The Dire Effects of the Lack of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination," 2017 Meeting Papers 110, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Escaping the Great Recession," Working Paper Series WP-2016-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2016. "Coordination in Price Setting and the Zero Lower Bound: A Global Games Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-12, Bank of Japan.
    9. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
    10. Sofía Bauducco & Rodrigo Caputo, 2013. "Wicksell Versus Taylor: A Quest for Determinancy and the (IR) Relevance of the Taylor Principle," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 705, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Narayana Kocherlakota, 2014. "Comment on "Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the US Economy from the Financial Crisis"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, pages 146-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Matteo Cacciatore & Giuseppe Fiori, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Goods and Labor Marlet Deregulation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 1-24, April.
    13. Davide Porcellacchia, 2016. "Wage-Price Dynamics and Structural Reforms in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2016/020, International Monetary Fund.

  28. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2010. "The implications of inflation in an estimated New-Keynesian model," Working Papers 10-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Paradiso, Antonio, 2011. "Estimates of the US Phillips curve with the general to specific method," MPRA Paper 28411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bernardino Adão & André C. Silva, 2021. "Government financing, inflation, and the financial sector," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 71(4), pages 1357-1396, June.
    3. Dotsey, Michael & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2016. "Interest rates and prices in an inventory model of money with credit," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 71-89.
    4. Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi & Kuo, Chun-Hung, 2014. "Identifying the Sources of Model Misspecification," CEPR Discussion Papers 10140, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Bruno Ferreira Frascaroli & Jailson da Conceição Teixeira de Oliveira, 2017. "Sub-Saharan African Countries’ Dependence on the External Inflation: Empirical Evidence Using Copulas," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(12), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Bruno Ferreira Frascaroli & Wellington Charles Lacerda Nobrega, 2019. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Risk in Latin America," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(11), pages 2389-2408, September.

  29. Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2010. "Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 7813, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Stevanovic Dalibor, 2016. "Common time variation of parameters in reduced-form macroeconomic models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 159-183, April.
    2. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2013. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions: Interdependent Policy Rule Coefficients," MPRA Paper 50040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2014. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 20194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Galvao Ana Beatriz & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2014. "The effects of the monetary policy stance on the transmission mechanism," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 217-236, May.
    5. Fasani, Stefano & Rossi, Lorenza, 2018. "Are uncertainty shocks aggregate demand shocks?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 142-146.
    6. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2010. "Second-Order Approximation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Risk," EIEF Working Papers Series 1021, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Dec 2010.
    7. Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
    8. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Banks' balance sheet, uncertainty and macroeconomy," EcoMod2017 10430, EcoMod.
    9. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2010. "Reading the recent monetary history of the United States, 1959-2007," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(May), pages 311-338.
    10. Baele, L.T.M. & Bekaert, G.R.J. & Cho, S. & Inghelbrecht, K. & Moreno, A., 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Other publications TiSEM e92a1993-778e-4ce2-b603-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2011. "Risk, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 247-309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Martin Andreasen, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model: explaining variation in term premia," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 441, Bank of England.
    13. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Escaping the Great Recession," Working Papers 13-19, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    14. Bidder, R.M. & Smith, M.E., 2012. "Robust animal spirits," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 738-750.
    15. Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo Hedibert F. Lopes, 2016. "Rational Sunspots," Economics Series Working Papers 787, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    16. Dario Caldara & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Wen Yao, 2012. "Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences and Stochastic Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 188-206, April.
    17. Steffen Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2013. "Dimensions of macroeconomic uncertainty: A common factor analysis," ifo Working Paper Series 167, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    18. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2016. "Changes in Federal Reserve preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 124-143.
    19. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
    20. Anh Nguyen, 2015. "Financial frictions and the volatility of monetary policy in a DSGE model," Working Papers 75949436, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    21. Tae Bong Kim, 2013. "Monetary Policy in Korea through the lense of Taylor Rule in DSGE model," 2013 Meeting Papers 746, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, 2010. "Macroeconomics and Volatility: Data, Models, and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 8169, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    23. Bikbov, Ruslan & Chernov, Mikhail, 2013. "Monetary policy regimes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 27-43.
    24. Mohr, Matthias & Maurin, Laurent & Guérin, Pierre, 2011. "Trend-cycle decomposition of output and euro area inflation forecasts: a real-time approach based on model combination," Working Paper Series 1384, European Central Bank.
    25. GUERRON-QUINTANA, Pablo A. & JINNAI, Ryo & 陣内, 了, 2015. "Financial Frictions, Trends, and the Great Recession," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-14, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    26. Müller, Ulrich K., 2012. "Measuring prior sensitivity and prior informativeness in large Bayesian models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 581-597.
    27. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2018. "Monetary policy shocks, inflation persistence, and long memory," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 117-127.
    28. Michael Hatcher, 2011. "Time-varying volatility, precautionary saving and monetary policy," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 440, Bank of England.
    29. Lafuente, Juan A. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2014. "Time-varying inflation targeting after the nineties," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 400-408.
    30. Lee, Junghoon, 2016. "The impact of idiosyncratic uncertainty when investment opportunities are endogenous," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 105-124.
    31. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stefania Villa, 2015. "Forecasting with Instabilities: an Application to DSGE Models with Financial Frictions," Working Papers 201523, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    32. Rhys M. Bidder, 2015. "Animal spirits and business cycles," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  30. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2010. "Fortune or virtue: time-variant volatilities versus parameter drifting," Working Papers 10-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Stevanovic Dalibor, 2016. "Common time variation of parameters in reduced-form macroeconomic models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 159-183, April.
    2. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2013. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions: Interdependent Policy Rule Coefficients," MPRA Paper 50040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2014. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 20194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2013. "Fiscal foundations of inflation: imperfect knowledge," Staff Reports 649, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Galvao Ana Beatriz & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2014. "The effects of the monetary policy stance on the transmission mechanism," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 217-236, May.
    6. Andrew Foerster & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2013. "Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Fasani, Stefano & Rossi, Lorenza, 2018. "Are uncertainty shocks aggregate demand shocks?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 142-146.
    8. Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
    9. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2010. "Second-Order Approximation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Risk," CEP Discussion Papers dp1033, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Baele, L.T.M. & Bekaert, G.R.J. & Cho, S. & Inghelbrecht, K. & Moreno, A., 2015. "Macroeconomic regimes," Other publications TiSEM e92a1993-778e-4ce2-b603-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Ryo Jinnai, 2011. "News Shocks, Price Levels, and Monetary Policy," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd10-173, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    12. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2011. "Risk, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 247-309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Martin Andreasen, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model: explaining variation in term premia," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 441, Bank of England.
    14. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2013. "Escaping the Great Recession," Working Papers 13-19, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    15. Ms. Susan S. Yang & Ms. Nora Traum, 2010. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in the Post-war U.S," IMF Working Papers 2010/243, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Bidder, R.M. & Smith, M.E., 2012. "Robust animal spirits," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 738-750.
    17. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2011. "Policy Rule Coefficients Driven by Latent Factors: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in an Endowment Economy," MPRA Paper 29976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2011. "Fiscal volatility shocks and economic activity," Working Papers 11-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    19. Lakdawala, Aeimit, 2016. "Changes in Federal Reserve preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 124-143.
    20. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Macroeconomics and Volatility: Data, Models, and Estimation," NBER Working Papers 16618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
    22. Tae Bong Kim, 2013. "Monetary Policy in Korea through the lense of Taylor Rule in DSGE model," 2013 Meeting Papers 746, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo & Hedibert F. Lopes, 2016. "Rational Sunspots," Business and Economics Working Papers 226, Unidade de Negocios e Economia, Insper.
    24. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "The Effects of the saving and banking glut on the U.S. economy," Staff Reports 648, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    25. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2018. "Monetary policy shocks, inflation persistence, and long memory," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 117-127.
    26. Lee, Junghoon, 2016. "The impact of idiosyncratic uncertainty when investment opportunities are endogenous," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 105-124.

  31. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2010. "Common factors in small open economies: inference and consequences," Working Papers 10-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. George Alessandria & Sangeeta Pratap & Vivian Z. Yue, 2013. "Export dynamics in large devaluations," Working Papers 13-33, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2012. "Common and idiosyncratic disturbances in developed small open economies," Working Papers 12-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

  32. Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2010. "Reading the Recent Monetary History of the U.S., 1959-2007," CEPR Discussion Papers 7812, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Sergey Ivashchenko, 2014. "Forecasting in a Non-Linear DSGE Model," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2014/02, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
    2. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Macroeconomics and Volatility: Data, Models, and Estimation," NBER Working Papers 16618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pablo Guerróon‐Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in times of crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 295-320, April.
    4. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

  33. Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2009. "Frequentist Inference in Weakly Identified DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7447, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Frank Schorfheide, 2011. "Estimation and evaluation of DSGE models: progress and challenges," Working Papers 11-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2013. "Identification-robust analysis of DSGE and structural macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 340-350.
    3. Andrle, Michal, 2010. "A note on identification patterns in DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1235, European Central Bank.
    4. Nikolay Iskrev, 2010. "Evaluating the strength of identification in DSGE models. An a priori approach," Working Papers w201032, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Daniil Lomonosov, 2023. "Shocks of Business Activity and Specific Shocks to Oil Market in DSGE Model of Russian Economy and Their Influence Under Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(4), pages 44-79, December.
    6. Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Path forecast evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 635-662.
    7. Zhongjun Qu, 2011. "Inference and Speci?cation Testing in DSGE Models with Possible Weak Identification," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-058, Boston University - Department of Economics.

  34. Uribe, Martín & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7264, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Cited by:

    1. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4736, CESifo.
    2. Chatterjee Pratiti, 2019. "Asymmetric impact of uncertainty in recessions: are emerging countries more vulnerable?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1-27, April.
    3. Segal, Gill & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Yaron, Amir, 2015. "Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 369-397.
    4. Yusuf Soner Başkaya & Timur Hülagü & Hande Küçük, 2013. "Oil Price Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 168-198, April.
    5. Hausmann-Guil, Guillermo, 2026. "Approximating around the stochastic steady state matters: rethinking uncertainty shocks in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    6. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2018. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multi-Country Perspective," NBER Working Papers 24325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Cosmin L. Ilut & Hikaru Saijo, 2016. "Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 22958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Brice V. Dupoyet & Corey A. Shank, 2018. "Oil prices implied volatility or direction: Which matters more to financial markets?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(3), pages 275-295, August.
    9. Grace Weishi Gu & Zachary R. Stangebye, 2023. "Costly Information And Sovereign Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1397-1429, November.
    10. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2011. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 774, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2015.
    11. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium models with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 216-229.
    12. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    13. Raul Ibarra, 2016. "How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Mexico?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(36), pages 3462-3484, August.
    14. Presbitero, Andrea & Eberhardt, Markus, 2021. "Commodity Prices and Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 15959, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    15. Chan, Ying Tung, 2020. "Carbon policies and productivity uncertainty: An intertemporal analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    16. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2021. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Working Paper Series 2513, European Central Bank.
    17. Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2018. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 25386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Nicholas Bloom, 2013. "Fluctuations in Uncertainty," CEP Occasional Papers 038, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    19. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Juan Manuel Figueres, 2018. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0220, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    20. Ricardo M. Reyes-Heroles & Gabriel Tenorio, 2017. "Interest Rate Volatility and Sudden Stops : An Empirical Investigation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1209, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Saijo, Hikaru, 2017. "The uncertainty multiplier and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-25.
    22. Jan Babecký & Tomáš Havránek & Jakub Mateju & Marek Rusnák & Katerina Šmídková & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "Banking, Debt, and Currency Crises: Early Warning Indicators for Developed Countries," Working Papers IES 2012/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2012.
    23. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Groshenny, Nicolas, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 78-92.
    24. Pancrazi, Roberto & Seoane, Hernán D. & Vukotic, Marija, 2019. "Welfare gains of bailouts in a sovereign default model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2019, Bank of Finland.
    25. Bonciani, Dario & van Roye, Björn, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions and economic activity," Working Paper Series 1825, European Central Bank.
    26. Minhyuk Jeong & Zhuang Chu & Kwangwon Ahn, 2026. "The impact of nuclear energy on social welfare and the future of renewable energy: episode from South Korea," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, December.
    27. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    28. Luisa Corrado & Stefano Grassi & Aldo Paolillo, 2021. "Modelling and Estimating Large Macroeconomic Shocks During the Pandemic," CREATES Research Papers 2021-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    29. Freund, L. B & Rendahl, P., 2020. "Unexpected Effects: Uncertainty, Unemployment, and Inflation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2035, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    30. Ran, Gao & Zixiang, Zhu & Jianhao, Lin, 2022. "Consumption–investment comovement and the dynamic impact of monetary policy uncertainty in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    31. Dorofeenko, Victor & Lee, Gabriel S. & Salyer, Kevin D., 2014. "Risk shocks and housing supply: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 194-219.
    32. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2019. "Response of the Macroeconomy to Uncertainty Shocks:the Risk Premium Channel," 2019 Meeting Papers 1567, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    33. Murray, James, 2014. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Its Macroeconomic Consequences," MPRA Paper 57409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Michael Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(611), pages 1730-1757, June.
    35. Tobias Adrian & Domenico Giannone & Matteo Luciani & Mike West, 2025. "Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk," Papers 2505.05193, arXiv.org.
    36. Cosmin Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2012. "Ambiguous Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 17900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Idriss Fontaine, 2021. "Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 437-471, April.
    38. de Ferra, Sergio & Mallucci, Enrico, 2022. "Sovereign risk matters: Endogenous default risk and the time-varying volatility of interest rate spreads," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    39. Pratiti Chatterjee & David Gunawan & Robert Kohn, 2025. "The Interaction between Credit Constraints and Uncertainty Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(8), pages 2099-2129, December.
    40. Grimme, Christian & Siemsen, Thomas, 2014. "Are You a Lehman, Brother? Interbank Uncertainty in a DSGE Model," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100498, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    41. Sanjay K. Chugh, 2013. "Firm Risk and Leverage Based Business Cycles," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 844, Boston College Department of Economics.
    42. Kollmann, Robert, 2015. "Risk Sharing in a World Economy with Uncertainty Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 10940, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    43. Eksi, Ozan & Onur Tas, Bedri Kamil, 2022. "Time-varying effect of uncertainty shocks on unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    44. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom, 2013. "Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments," NBER Working Papers 19475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2023. "Global financial uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 432-449, April.
    46. Trung, Nguyen Ba, 2019. "The spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on the global economy: A global VAR approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 90-110.
    47. Bilenkisi, Fikret, 2024. "Uncertainty, labour force participation and job search," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    48. David Altig & Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Brent H. Meyer & Nicholas Parker, 2019. "Surveying Business Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 25956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    49. Troy Davig & Andrew Foerster, 2019. "Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(7), pages 1857-1887, October.
    50. Liu, Xiaochun, 2021. "On fiscal and monetary policy-induced macroeconomic volatility dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    51. Ottonello, Pablo & Perez, Diego J. & Varraso, Paolo, 2022. "Are collateral-constraint models ready for macroprudential policy design?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    52. Hites Ahir & Nicholas Bloom & Davide Furceri, 2022. "The world uncertainty index," POID Working Papers 031, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    53. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 760, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    54. Alexander Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton, 2018. "A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty," 2018 Meeting Papers 565, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    55. Eguren Martin, Fernando, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and current account adjustment: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 69-93.
    56. Sherwin Lott, 2018. "Perturbations in DSGE Models: Odd Derivatives Theorem," PIER Working Paper Archive 18-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 21 May 2018.
    57. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes, 2018. "Less bang for the buck? Assessing the role of inflation uncertainty for U.S. monetary policy transmission in a data rich environment," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 358, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    58. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2015. "The federal funds market, excess reserves, and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 225-250.
    59. Fabio Bertolotti & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2019. "Tax shocks with high and low uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 972-993, September.
    60. Mehkari, M. Saif, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks in a model with mean-variance frontiers and endogenous technology choices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 71-98.
    61. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Financial Uncertainty Shocks: A Daily Identification Approach," Documentos de Trabajo 559, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    62. Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Ian Wright, 2017. "Short and Long Run Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 23676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    63. Xu, Shaofeng, 2016. "Interpreting volatility shocks as preference shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 135-140.
    64. Den Haan, Wouter & Rendahl, Pontus & Freund, Lukas B., 2020. "Volatile Hiring: Uncertainty in Search and Matching Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14630, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    65. Joonseok Oh & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2025. "Macro Uncertainty, Unemployment Risk, And Consumption Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(1), pages 287-312, February.
    66. Neil Shephard, 2013. "Martingale unobserved component models," Economics Papers 2013-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    67. Fasani, Stefano & Rossi, Lorenza, 2018. "Are uncertainty shocks aggregate demand shocks?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 142-146.
    68. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel, 2017. "The price of imported capital and consumption fluctuations in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 67-81.
    69. Azad, Nahiyan Faisal & Serletis, Apostolos, 2022. "Spillovers of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty on inflation targeting emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    70. Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Xu, Qi, 2021. "The real effects of exchange rate risk on corporate investment: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    71. Mauro Sayar Ferreira & André Cordeiro Valério, 2020. "Global shocks and emerging economies: disentangling the commodity roller coaster," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 623, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    72. Fan, Ying, 2022. "Demand shocks and price stickiness in housing market dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    73. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2018. "Monetary Policy Volatility Shocks in Brazil," Working Papers Series 480, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    74. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2010. "Second-Order Approximation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Risk," EIEF Working Papers Series 1021, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Dec 2010.
    75. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Lyes Koliai, 2014. "On the determinants of food price volatility," Post-Print hal-01511900, HAL.
    76. Nourhaine Nefzi & Abir Abid, 2025. "Economic uncertainty and exchange rates linkage revisited: modelling tail dependence with high frequency data," Papers 2511.05315, arXiv.org.
    77. Han, Haozhe & Wang, Xingjian, 2023. "Monetary policy uncertainty and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    78. Vegard Høghaug Larsen, 2021. "Components Of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 769-788, May.
    79. Dong, Ding & Liu, Zheng & Wang, Pengfei, 2025. "Turbulent business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    80. La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul & Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2018. "Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2018/272, International Monetary Fund.
    81. Segal, Gill, 2019. "A tale of two volatilities: Sectoral uncertainty, growth, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 110-140.
    82. Maral Shamloo & Aytek Malkhozov, 2010. "Asset Prices in Affine Real Business Cycle Models," IMF Working Papers 2010/249, International Monetary Fund.
    83. Edgar Silgado‐Gómez, 2024. "Sovereign Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1985-2018, November.
    84. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Hirs-Garzón & Sebastián Sanin-Restrepo & Jorge M. Uribe, 2024. "Financial and Macroeconomic Uncertainties and Real Estate Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 29-53, January.
    85. Guillermo Hausmann-Guil, 2025. "Online Appendix to "Solving DSGE models with incomplete markets by perturbation"," Online Appendices 24-34, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    86. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Bergin, Paul R, 2015. "Beyond Competitive Devaluations: The Monetary Dimensions of Comparative Advantage," CEPR Discussion Papers 10718, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    87. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    88. Kyle Jurado, 2016. "Advance Information and Distorted Beliefs in Macroeconomic and Financial Fluctuations," 2016 Meeting Papers 154, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    89. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Deepa Dhume Datta & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Olesya V. Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Juan M. Londono & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius del Giudice Rodriguez & J, 2020. "What is Certain about Uncertainty?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1294, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
      • Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
    90. Francisco Blasques, 2013. "Solution-Driven Specification of DSGE Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-062/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    91. Céline Poilly & Fabien Tripier, 2023. "Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2321, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    92. Tyler Atkinson & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2020. "Complementarity and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Working Papers 2009, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    93. Bonciani, Dario, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks: it's a matter of habit," MPRA Paper 59370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    94. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Tarazi, Amine, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    95. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana, 2020. "Estimating DSGE Models: Recent Advances and Future Challenges," NBER Working Papers 27715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    96. Baruník, Jozef & Bevilacqua, Mattia & Faff, Robert, 2024. "Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    97. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Banks' balance sheet, uncertainty and macroeconomy," EcoMod2017 10430, EcoMod.
    98. Dario Bonciani & Joonseok Jason Oh, 2019. "The long-run effects of uncertainty shocks," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 802, Bank of England.
    99. Michael Siemer & Adrien Verdelhan & Francois Gourio, 2015. "Uncertainty and International Capital Flows," 2015 Meeting Papers 880, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    100. Joonseok Oh, 2020. "The Propagation Of Uncertainty Shocks: Rotemberg Versus Calvo," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1097-1113, August.
    101. Anna Kormilitsina & Denis Nekipelov, 2016. "Consistent Variance Of The Laplace‐Type Estimators: Application To Dsge Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 603-622, May.
    102. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2021. "Time-varying uncertainty and variance risk premium," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    103. Lu, Fei & Ma, Feng & Guo, Qiang, 2023. "Less is more? New evidence from stock market volatility predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    104. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    105. Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Gabriel Tenorio, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy in the Presence of External Risks," 2019 Meeting Papers 1138, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    106. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2019. "The impact of energy price uncertainty on macroeconomic variables," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1306-1319.
    107. Martin Seneca, 2020. "Risk Shocks and Monetary Policy in the New Normal," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 185-232, December.
    108. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2015. "Forecasting macroeconomic data for an emerging market with a nonlinear DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 215-228.
    109. Germaschewski, Yin & Horvath, Jaroslav & Rubini, Loris, 2026. "Expropriations and cross-country heterogeneity in consumption volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    110. Sosa-Padilla, César, 2018. "Sovereign defaults and banking crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 88-105.
    111. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Scarlet Chen & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2019. "The Impact of Brexit on UK Firms," NBER Working Papers 26218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    112. Mirela Miescu, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Working Papers 277077821, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    113. Stefano Giglio & Ian Dew-Becker & David Berger, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 403, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    114. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
    115. Ghironi, Fabio & Ozhan, Galip Kemal, 2025. "Interest rate uncertainty as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    116. Hikaru Saijo, 2018. "Redistribution and Fiscal Uncertainty Shocks," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    117. Miescu, Mirela S., 2023. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies: A global to local approach for identification," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    118. Jursa, Lukáš & Janků, Jan, 2025. "From the core to the European periphery: Spillover effects of financial cycles," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    119. Gábor-Tóth, Enikő & Georgarakos, Dimitris, 2018. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market participation," CFS Working Paper Series 590, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    120. Kollmann, Robert, 2016. "Tractable Likelihood-Based Estimation of Non-Linear DSGE Models Using Higher-Order Approximations," MPRA Paper 70350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    121. Čižmešija Mirjana & Sorić Petar & Lolić Ivana, 2017. "The interrelationship between media reports and the recession in Croatia," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Paradigm, vol. 3(1), pages 16-34, June.
    122. Germaschewski, Yin & Horvath, Jaroslav & Rubini, Loris, 2024. "How important are trend shocks? The role of the debt elasticity of interest rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    123. Régis Barnichon & Christian Matthes & Alexander Ziegenbein, 2016. "Theory Ahead of Measurement? Assessing the Nonlinear Effects of Financial Market Disruptions," Working Paper 16-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    124. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    125. Steffen Elstner & Eric Sims & Ruediger Bachmann, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," 2010 Meeting Papers 614, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    126. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2011. "Risk, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 247-309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    127. Sami Alpanda, 2013. "Identifying The Role Of Risk Shocks In The Business Cycle Using Stock Price Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 304-335, January.
    128. Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Varthalitis, Petros & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2016. "Fiscal consolidation in an open economy with sovereign premia and without monetary policy independence," MPRA Paper 81327, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    129. Aruoba, S. Borağan & Bocola, Luigi & Schorfheide, Frank, 2017. "Assessing DSGE model nonlinearities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 34-54.
    130. Nguyen Ba Trung, 2022. "Output fluctuations and portfolio flows to emerging economies: The role of monetary uncertainty," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 285-295, December.
    131. Muhsin Ali & Karim Khan, 2020. "Volatility in Discretionary Public Spending and Economic Growth: A Cross Country Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 45-68.
    132. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-042, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 09 Dec 2015.
    133. Born, Benjamin & Müller, Gernot & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2020. "Uncertainty shocks in currency unions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15579, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    134. Oh, Joonseok & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2020. "Macro Uncertainty and Unemployment Risk," Working Paper Series 395, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    135. Silgado-Gómez, Edgar, 2022. "Sovereign Uncertainty," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    136. Julián Caballero & Andrés Fernández & Jongho Park, 2019. "On Corporate Borrowing, Credit Spreads and Economic Activity in Emerging Economies: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 839, Central Bank of Chile.
    137. Popp, Aaron & Zhang, Fang, 2025. "Divergent effects of aggregate and local uncertainty shocks: Evidence from US metropolitan areas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    138. Mr. Emre Alper & Lorenzo Forni, 2011. "Public Debt in Advanced Economies and its Spillover Effectson Long-Term Yields," IMF Working Papers 2011/210, International Monetary Fund.
    139. Bianchi, Francesco & Ilut, Cosmin & Schneider, Martin, 2017. "Uncertainty shocks, asset supply and pricing over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 11950, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    140. Andrés Fernández & Andres Gonzalez & Diego Rodriguez, 2015. "Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2015/280, International Monetary Fund.
    141. Gourio, Francois, 2011. "Credit Risk and Disaster Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8201, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    142. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 278-296, January.
    143. Seoane, Hernán D., 2015. "Near unit root small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 37-46.
    144. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori, 2022. "Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle through the MIDAS Lens," CESifo Working Paper Series 10062, CESifo.
    145. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2021. "Using time-varying volatility for identification in Vector Autoregressions: An application to endogenous uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 47-73.
    146. Klodiana Istrefi & A. Piloiu, 2014. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Working papers 511, Banque de France.
    147. Boyan Jovanovic & Sai Ma, 2022. "Uncertainty and Growth Disasters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 33-64, April.
    148. Gordon, Grey & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2017. "Asymmetric business cycles and sovereign default," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 116-119.
    149. Xiang, Jingjie & Li, Li, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty, debt financing cost and real economic activities: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1025-1044.
    150. Gabriel Cuadra & Victoria Nuguer, 2018. "Risky Banks and Macro-Prudential Policy for Emerging Economies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 125-144, October.
    151. Yıldırım-Karaman, Seçil, 2018. "Uncertainty in financial markets and business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 329-339.
    152. Paul Carrillo-Maldonado & Javier Díaz-Cassou & Miguel Flores, 2023. "What are the main variables that influence the dynamics of Ecuador’s sovereign risk?," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 2158009-215, December.
    153. Laura Veldkamp & Anna Orlik, 2013. "Understanding Uncertainty Shocks," 2013 Meeting Papers 391, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    154. Gross, Isaac & Hansen, James, 2021. "Optimal policy design in nonlinear DSGE models: An n-order accurate approximation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    155. Carranza-Ugarte, Luis & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose Enrique, 2023. "Rethinking fiscal rules," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 833-857.
      • Luis Carranza Ugarte & Julian Diaz Saavedra & Jose Enrique Galdon-Sanchez, 2021. "Rethinking fiscal rules," ThE Papers 21/14, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    156. Johri, Alok & Khan, Shahed & Sosa-Padilla, César, 2022. "Interest rate uncertainty and sovereign default risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    157. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2020. "The impact of uncertainty on the macro-financial linkage with international financial exposure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    158. Anna Belianska & Aurélien Eyquem & Céline Poilly, 2021. "The Transmission Channels of Government Spending Uncertainty," Working Papers halshs-03160370, HAL.
    159. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2020. "Global effects of US uncertainty: real and financial shocks on real and financial markets," Working papers 69, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    160. Philippe Andrade & Eric Ghysels & Julien Idier., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
    161. Giancarlo Corsetti, 2012. "The ‘hoc’ of international macroeconomics after the crisis," Chapters, in: Robert M. Solow & Jean-Philippe Touffut (ed.), What’s Right with Macroeconomics?, chapter 3, pages 68-89, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    162. Yanhong Feng & Dilong Xu & Pierre Failler & Tinghui Li, 2020. "Research on the Time-Varying Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Crude Oil Price Fluctuation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-24, August.
    163. Benchimol, Jonathan & Ivashchenko, Sergey, 2021. "Switching volatility in a nonlinear open economy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 110, pages 1-31.
    164. Hsu, Alex & Palomino, Francisco, 2015. "A simple nonnegative process for equilibrium models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 39-44.
    165. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Escaping the Great Recession," Working Paper Series WP-2016-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    166. Le, Cao Hoang Anh & Shan, Yaowen & Taylor, Stephen, 2024. "International economic policy uncertainty and analysts' earnings forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    167. Zinna, Gabriele, 2014. "Identifying risks in emerging market sovereign and corporate bond spreads," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-22.
    168. Maximiliano Dvorkin, 2013. "Sectoral Shocks, Reallocation and Unemployment in a Model of Competitive Labor Markets," 2013 Meeting Papers 1229, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    169. Marcelo Arbex & Sidney Caetano & Wilson Correa, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Target Uncertainty Shocks," Working Papers 1804, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
    170. Bielskis, Karolis & Lastauskas, Povilas, 2024. "The role of housing market and credit on household consumption dynamics: Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    171. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Born, Benjamin & Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian, 2019. "Time-varying business volatility and the price setting of firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 82-99.
    172. Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson & Kazuki Tomioka, 2021. "Empirical Evidence on the Dynamics of Investment Under Uncertainty in the U.S," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1193-1217, October.
    173. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," NBER Working Papers 26768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    174. Ambrogio Cesa‐Bianchi & Emilio Fernandez‐Corugedo, 2018. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 603-636, June.
    175. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Wu, Hongwei & Zha, Tao, 2016. "Striated Metropolis–Hastings sampler for high-dimensional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 406-420.
    176. Francesca Parodi, 2024. "Consumption Tax Cuts In A Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(1), pages 117-148, February.
    177. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2014. "Policy risk and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 68-85.
    178. Kıvanç Karaman, K. & Yıldırım-Karaman, Seçil, 2019. "How does financial development alter the impact of uncertainty?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 33-42.
    179. C. Bora Durdu, 2013. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: Recent Advances," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 183-199, June.
    180. Matthieu Darracq Paries & Jenny Korner & Niki Papadopoulou, 2019. "Empowering Central Bank Asset Purchases: The Role of Financial Policies," Working Papers 2019-1, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    181. Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck & Malchow-Møller, Nikolaj, 2015. "Innovations in mortgage finance and the onset of the Great Recession in a small open economy with a euro peg," Discussion Papers on Economics 5/2015, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    182. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    183. Jerow, Sam & Wolff, Jonathan, 2022. "Fiscal policy and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    184. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen, 2016. "Business Cycles in Small, Open Economies: Evidence from Panel Data Between 1900 and 2013," Staff Working Papers 16-48, Bank of Canada.
    185. Marcelo Arbex & Michael Batu & Sidney Caetano, 2020. "Stay At Home! Macroeconomic Effects of Pandemic-Induced Job Separation Shocks," Working Papers 2002, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
    186. Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks and labor market dynamics in Japan," Working Papers SDES-2016-8, Kochi University of Technology, School of Economics and Management, revised Jun 2016.
    187. Hauzenberger, Niko & Böck, Maximilian & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Stelzer, Anna & Zens, Gregor, 2018. "Implications of macroeconomic volatility in the Euro area," ESRB Working Paper Series 80, European Systemic Risk Board.
    188. Kevin Larcher & Jaebeom Kim & Youngju Kim, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks and Asymmetric Dynamics in Korea: A Nonlinear Approach," Working Papers 2018-12, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    189. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2012. "Risk and uncertainty," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 9-18.
    190. Ruediger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2009. "Firm-Specific Productivity Risk over the Business Cycle: Facts and Aggregate Implications," CESifo Working Paper Series 2844, CESifo.
    191. Okubo, Masakatsu, 2023. "Model uncertainty, economic development, and welfare costs of business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    192. Kollmann, Robert, 2016. "International Business Cycles and Risk Sharing with Uncertainty Shocks and Recursive Preferences," MPRA Paper 70183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    193. Bernstein, Joshua & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2021. "Cyclical net entry and exit," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    194. Kamalyan, Hayk & Davtyan, Vahagn, 2022. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Business Cycle Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 113443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    195. Bahram Adrangi & Ales Kresta & Kambiz Raffiee & Tomas Tichy, 2025. "Volatility in U.S. Natural Gas Prices: Exploring Market Dynamics and Economic Policy Uncertainties," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 183-208.
    196. Robert Kollmann, 2016. "Risk Sharing, the Exchange Rate and Net Foreign Assets in a World Economy with Uncertainty Shocks," 2016 Meeting Papers 721, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    197. Rebucci, Alessandro & Benigno, Gianluca & Foerster, Andrew & Otrok, Christopher, 2020. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 14545, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    198. Vivek Sharma & Edgar Silgado-Gómez, 2019. "Sovereign Spread Volatility and Banking Sector," CEIS Research Paper 454, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 Mar 2019.
    199. Anna Orlik & Laura Veldkamp, 2014. "Understanding Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of Black Swans," NBER Working Papers 20445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    200. Borochin, Paul & Zhao, Yanhui, 2025. "The economic value of equity implied volatility forecasting with machine learning," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    201. Larry G. Epstein & Shaolin Ji, 2013. "Ambiguous volatility and asset pricing in continuous time," Papers 1301.4614, arXiv.org.
    202. Xu, Qinhua & Fu, Buben & Wang, Bin, 2022. "The effects of oil price uncertainty on China’s economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    203. Bouakez, Hafedh & Chihi, Foued & Normandin, Michel, 2014. "Measuring the effects of fiscal policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 123-151.
    204. Oliver de Groot & C. Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2024. "Why Global and Local Solutions of Open-Economy Models with Incomplete Markets Differ and Why it Matters," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-037, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    205. Chiu, Yen-Chen, 2020. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, information competition, and liquidity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    206. Magas, István, 2011. "Financial liberalisation – The dilemmas of national adaptation," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 56(2), pages 214-240.
    207. Andreasen, Martin M. & Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2024. "Does risk matter more in recessions than in expansions? Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    208. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    209. Francisco Blasques, 2014. "Transformed Polynomials For Nonlinear Autoregressive Models Of The Conditional Mean," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 218-238, May.
    210. Michael Plante & Nora Traum, 2012. "Time-Varying Oil Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Aggregates," CAEPR Working Papers 2012-002, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    211. Alexandr Kopytov & Bineet Mishra & Kristoffer Nimark & Mathieu Taschereau‐Dumouchel, 2024. "Endogenous Production Networks Under Supply Chain Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(5), pages 1621-1659, September.
    212. Lee, Hanbaek, 2022. "Striking While the Iron Is Cold: Fragility after a Surge of Lumpy Investments," MPRA Paper 115872, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    213. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2024. "Are exchange rates absorbers of global oil shocks? A generalized structural analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    214. Husnu C. Dalgic, 2025. "When Is Liquidity Bad?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_723, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    215. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "US uncertainty shocks on real and financial markets: A multi-country perspective," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).
    216. Ayelen Banegas, 2016. "Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1174, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    217. Marcelo Ochoa, 2013. "Volatility, labor heterogeneity and asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-71, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    218. Albertini, Julien & Lan, Hong, 2016. "The importance of time-varying parameters in new Keynesian models with zero lower bound," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-013, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    219. Azqueta-Gavaldón, Andrés & Hirschbühl, Dominik & Onorante, Luca & Saiz, Lorena, 2023. "Sources of Economic Policy Uncertainty in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    220. Netšunajev, Aleksei & Glass, Katharina, 2017. "Uncertainty and employment dynamics in the euro area and the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 48-62.
    221. Manuel Buchholz & Lena Tonzer & Julian Berner, 2022. "Firm‐specific forecast errors and asymmetric investment propensity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 764-793, April.
    222. Olkhov, Victor, 2022. "Economic Policy - the Forth Dimension of the Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 112685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    223. Fischer, Manfred M. & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2021. "The regional transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality in the United States," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 887-900.
    224. Jaroslav Horvath & Guanyi Yang, 2024. "Global Financial Risk, Equity Returns and Economic Activity in Emerging Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(3), pages 672-689, June.
    225. Oliver de Groot & Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2020. "Approximately Right?: Global v. Local Methods for Open-Economy Models with Incomplete Markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    226. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    227. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang & Jing Zhou, 2022. "Asset Bubbles and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 315-348, April.
    228. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    229. Engin Kara & Ahmed Jamal Pirzada, 2016. "A Possible Explanation of the Missing Deflation Puzzle," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 16/670, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK, revised 29 Mar 2017.
    230. Karkowska, Renata & Urjasz, Szczepan, 2021. "Connectedness structures of sovereign bond markets in Central and Eastern Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    231. Alessio Anzuini & Luca Rossi, 2021. "Fiscal policy in the US: a new measure of uncertainty and its effects on the American economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2613-2634, November.
    232. Barnichon, Regis & Matthes, Christian & Ziegenbein, Alexander, 2016. "Assessing the Non-Linear Effects of Credit Market Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11410, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    233. Luisa Corrado & Stefano Grassi & Aldo Paolillo, 2021. "Identifying Economic Shocks in a Rare Disaster Environment," CEIS Research Paper 517, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Jul 2024.
    234. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2011. "Fiscal volatility shocks and economic activity," Working Papers 11-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    235. Sergio Salgado & Fatih Guvenen & Nicholas Bloom, 2019. "Skewed Business Cycles," 2019 Meeting Papers 1189, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    236. Redl, Chris, 2020. "Uncertainty matters: Evidence from close elections," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    237. Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 20-35.
    238. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolas Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2022. "Unravelling the Narratives Behind Macroeconomic Forecasts," IHEID Working Papers 18-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    239. Baltasar Manzano & Luis Rey, 2012. "The Welfare Cost of Energy Insecurity," Working Papers fa07-2012, Economics for Energy.
    240. McMahon, Michael & , & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The Long-Run Information Effect of Central Bank Communication," CEPR Discussion Papers 13438, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    241. Patricia Gómez-González & Daniel Rees, 2013. "Stochastic Terms of Trade Volatility in Small Open Economies," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    242. Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2010. "Fortune or Virtue: Time-Variant Volatilities Versus Parameter Drifting in U.S. Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 7813, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    243. Peter Claeys, 2017. "Uncertainty spillover and policy reactions," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 64-77, April.
    244. Giuliano Queiroz Ferreira & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2022. "Regime-dependent price puzzle in the Brazilian economy: evidence from VAR and FAVAR approaches," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(9), pages 1-28, September.
    245. Freund, L. B. & Lee, H. & Rendahl, P., 2022. "The Risk-Premium Channel of Uncertainty: Implications for Unemployment and Inflation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2251, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    246. Andrea Carriero & Alessio Volpicella, 2022. "Generalizing the Max Share Identification to multiple shocks identification: an Application to Uncertainty," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0322, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    247. Acheampong Albert & Ngozi Ibeji & Freeman Owusu & Thuy Nguyen, 2025. "Narrative Disclosure Tone and Bank Risk: The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(6), pages 3428-3447, September.
    248. Malkhozov, Aytek, 2014. "Asset prices in affine real business cycle models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 180-193.
    249. Segal, Gill & Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2023. "Uncertainty, risk, and capital growth," SAFE Working Paper Series 388, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    250. Gourio, François, 2012. "Macroeconomic implications of time-varying risk premia," Working Paper Series 1463, European Central Bank.
    251. Coulombe, Raphaelle G. & Horvath, Jaroslav, 2026. "Government spending dynamics in small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    252. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Working Papers 2025_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    253. Fan, Ying & Wang, Yidi & Yang, Zan, 2024. "Offspring’s Uncertainty and Dynastic Decisions: Evidence from Urban China," Working Paper Series 24/4, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    254. Emi Nakamura & Dmitriy Sergeyev & Jón Steinsson, 2012. "Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    255. Sangyup Choi & Myungkyu Shim, 2018. "Labor Market Dynamics in Developing Economies: the Role of Subsistence Consumption," Working papers 2018rwp-127, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    256. Kranz Tobias, 2017. "Calibrating the Equilibrium Condition of a New Keynesian Model with Uncertainty," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(2), pages 117-151, August.
    257. Jan-Philipp Dueber, 2018. "Endogenous Time-Varying Volatility and Emerging Market Business Cycles," Studies in Economics 1811, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    258. Anastasiia Antonova & Mykhailo Matvieiev & Céline Poilly, 2026. "Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 26-12, Bank of Canada.
    259. Mykola Babiak & Roman Kozhan, 2021. "Growth Uncertainty, Rational Learning, and Option Prices," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp682, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    260. Feng, Ling & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2013. "Financial shocks and exports," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 39-55.
    261. Converse, Nathan, 2018. "Uncertainty, capital flows, and maturity mismatch," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 260-275.
    262. Wensheng, Kang & Ratti, Ronald & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2017. "Impact of Global Uncertainty on the Global Economy and Large Developed and Developing Economies," MPRA Paper 82188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    263. Adnan Velic, 2024. "Current Account Imbalances, Real Exchange Rates, and Nominal Exchange Rate Variability," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 497-545, July.
    264. Mr. Damiano Sandri, 2011. "Precautionary Savings and Global Imbalances in World General Equilibrium," IMF Working Papers 2011/122, International Monetary Fund.
    265. Kim, Dohan, 2025. "The Asymmetric Bank Distress Amplifier of Recessions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11170, The World Bank.
    266. Pier Lopez, 2014. "The Term Structure of the Welfare Cost of Uncertainty," Working papers 521, Banque de France.
    267. Araujo, Juliana D. & Li, Bin Grace & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 144-156.
    268. Michael Donadelli, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks and policymakers’ behavior: evidence from the subprime crisis era," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(4), pages 578-607, September.
    269. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of US Uncertainty on the Euro Area in Good and Bad Times: Evidence from a Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201681, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    270. Flamini, Alessandro & Milas, Costas, 2015. "Distribution forecast targeting in an open-economy, macroeconomic volatility and financial implications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 89-105.
    271. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2018. "Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy: New Tools, Same Channels?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-31, October.
    272. Poilly, Céline & Tripier, Fabien, 2025. "Reprint of: Regional trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    273. Marco Brianti, 2021. "Financial Shocks, Uncertainty Shocks, and Monetary Policy Trade-Offs," Working Papers 2021-05, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    274. Ying Tung Chan, 2019. "The Environmental Impacts and Optimal Environmental Policies of Macroeconomic Uncertainty Shocks: A Dynamic Model Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-26, September.
    275. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2013. "The Impact of the Volatility of Monetary Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 535-558, June.
    276. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "Macroeconomics and Volatility: Data, Models, and Estimation," NBER Working Papers 16618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    277. Pratiti Chatterjee & David Gunawan & Robert Kohn, 2020. "The Interaction Between Credit Constraints and Uncertainty Shocks," Papers 2004.14719, arXiv.org.
    278. Viktors Ajevskis, 2013. "Non-Local Solutions to Dynamic Equilibrium Models: the Approximate Stable Manifolds Approach," Working Papers 2013/03, Latvijas Banka.
    279. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Sala, Luca, 2021. "Downside and Upside Uncertainty Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 15881, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    280. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    281. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2024. "Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    282. Fang Zhang, 2017. "Rational Inattention in Uncertain Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 215-253, February.
    283. Liu, Wenwen & Chen, Xue, 2022. "Natural resources commodity prices volatility and economic uncertainty: Evaluating the role of oil and gas rents in COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    284. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 215-228.
    285. Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2020. "Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-387, May.
    286. Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio & Anh Le & Marius Rodriguez, 2015. "The Price of Variance Risk," NBER Working Papers 21182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    287. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "The international transmission of volatility shocks: an empirical analysis," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 463, Bank of England.
    288. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli & Luca Sala, 2023. "The impact of financial shocks on the forecast distribution of output and inflation," Working Paper 2023/3, Norges Bank.
    289. Lan, Hong & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2014. "Solvability of perturbation solutions in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 366-388.
    290. Balke, Nathan S. & Martínez-García, Enrique & Zeng, Zheng, 2021. "In no uncertain terms: The effect of uncertainty on credit frictions and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    291. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
    292. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2023. "The Real Response to Uncertainty Shocks: The Risk Premium Channel," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 119-140, January.
    293. Anh Nguyen, 2015. "Financial frictions and the volatility of monetary policy in a DSGE model," Working Papers 75949436, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    294. Engin Kara & Ahmed Jamal Pirzada, 2015. "Risk, Intermediate Input Prices and Missing Deflation During the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 5429, CESifo.
    295. Özge Akinci, 2021. "Financial Frictions and Macro‐Economic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1267-1312, September.
    296. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2023. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy During The Great Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 577-606, May.
    297. Ryan Kellogg, 2010. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," NBER Working Papers 16541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    298. Sanha Noh, 2020. "Posterior Inference on Parameters in a Nonlinear DSGE Model via Gaussian-Based Filters," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(4), pages 795-841, December.
    299. Tim Bollerslev & Jia Li & Zhipeng Liao, 2021. "Fixed‐k inference for volatility," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1053-1084, November.
    300. Wang, Jie & Hu, Jiukai & Yu, Bo, 2025. "Risk spillover effects among Chinese policy, economy and financial markets: Evidence from mixed-frequency data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 2263-2277.
    301. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath & Saman Hatamerad & Kambiz Raffiee, 2025. "Equity Markets Volatility, Regime Dependence and Economic Uncertainty: The Case of Pacific Basin," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 75-105.
    302. Kwangwon Ahn & Hanwool Jang & Daeyong Lee, 2026. "Impact of Monetary Policy on Corporate Defaults and Associated Welfare Costs," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 67(4), pages 2697-2729, April.
    303. Shovon Sengupta & Sunny Kumar Singh & Tanujit Chakraborty, 2025. "Macroeconomic Forecasting for the G7 countries under Uncertainty Shocks," Papers 2510.23347, arXiv.org.
    304. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    305. Chikhale, Nisha, 2023. "The effects of uncertainty shocks: Implications of wealth inequality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    306. Jongrim Ha & Seohyun Lee & Inhwan So, 2022. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Evidence from Geopolitical Swings on the Korean Peninsula," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 21-56, February.
    307. Nicolas Himounet, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," Post-Print hal-05113023, HAL.
    308. Strobel, Felix, 2018. "The government spending multiplier, fiscal stress and the zero lower bound," IMFS Working Paper Series 126, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    309. Haining Chen & Prince Asare Vitenu-Sackey & Isaac Akpemah Bathuure, 2024. "Uncertainty Measures and Business Cycles: Evidence From the US," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, April.
    310. Lan, Hong & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2012. "Existence and Uniqueness of Perturbation Solutions in DSGE Models," Dynare Working Papers 14, CEPREMAP.
    311. Bonsall, Samuel B. & Green, Jeremiah & Muller, Karl A., 2020. "Market uncertainty and the importance of media coverage at earnings announcements," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    312. Fritsche, Jan Philipp & Klein, Mathias & Rieth, Malte, 2021. "Government spending multipliers in (un)certain times," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    313. Pan, Zheyao & Chan, Kam Fong, 2018. "A new government bond volatility index predictor for the U.S. equity premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 200-215.
    314. Andrea Carriero & Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2015. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks under Measurement Error: A Proxy SVAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(6), pages 1223-1238, September.
    315. Andrew T. Foerster & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2014. "Perturbation methods for Markov-switching DSGE models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    316. Guillermo Hausmann-Guil, 2025. "Solving DSGE models with incomplete markets by perturbation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 57, July.
    317. Cosmin Ilut & Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider, 2017. "Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News," CESifo Working Paper Series 6414, CESifo.
    318. Xu, Shaofeng, 2017. "Volatility risk and economic welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 17-33.
    319. Rajendra N. Paramanik & Avishek Bhandari & Bandi Kamaiah, 2022. "Financial cycle, business cycle, and policy uncertainty in India: An empirical investigation," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 825-837, July.
    320. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Scarlet Chen & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Greg Thwaites & Garry Young, 2019. "Brexit and uncertainty: insights from the Decision Maker Panel," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 780, Bank of England.
    321. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Business Cycles in Emerging Markets: The Role of Durable Goods and Financial Frictions," IMF Working Papers 2011/133, International Monetary Fund.
    322. Husnu C. Dalgic & Galip Kemal Ozhan, 2025. "Dominant Currency Pricing and Currency Risk Premia," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_717, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    323. Castañeda, Pablo & Castro, Rubén & Fajnzylber, Eduardo & Medina, Juan Pablo & Villatoro, Félix, 2021. "Saving for the future: Evaluating the sustainability and design of Pension Reserve Funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    324. Chatterjee, Pratiti, 2024. "Uncertainty shocks, financial frictions, and business cycle asymmetries across countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    325. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Pagliari, Maria Sole & Kurcz, Frederik, 2020. "Do words hurt more than actions? The impact of trade tensions on financial markets," Working Paper Series 2490, European Central Bank.
    326. Firooz, Hamid & Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2025. "Reshoring, automation, and labor markets under trade uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    327. Zhang, Xiaoyu & Zhou, Jinlan & Du, Xiaodong, 2022. "Impact of oil price uncertainty shocks on China’s macro-economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    328. Damián Pierri, 2023. "Simulations in Models with Heterogeneous Agents, Incomplete Markets and Aggregate Uncertainty," Working Papers 259, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    329. Minchul Shin & Molin Zhong, 2016. "A New Approach to Identifying the Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    330. Mendicino, Caterina & Zhang, Yahong, 2018. "Risk shocks in a small open economy: Business cycle dynamics in Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 391-409.
    331. Jiawen Xu & John Rogers, 2025. "How Well Does Uncertainty Forecast Economic Activity?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(2-3), pages 645-662, March.
    332. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2018. "Dynamics of Investment, Debt, and Default," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 71-95, April.
    333. Fogli, Alessandra & Perri, Fabrizio, 2015. "Macroeconomic volatility and external imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-15.
    334. Hernan Seoane, 2016. "Time-varying volatility, default and the sovereign risk premium," 2016 Meeting Papers 1132, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    335. Tomohide Mineyama, 2026. "Welfare Consequences of Approximation: The Case of Monetary Policy Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 67(2), pages 827-853, February.
    336. Manfred M. Fischer & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2018. "The transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality: State-level evidence from the United States," Working Papers in Economics 2018-4, University of Salzburg.
    337. Berner, Julian & Buchholz, Manuel & Tonzer, Lena, 2020. "Asymmetric investment responses to firm-specific forecast errors," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    338. Matthew Smith, 2012. "Estimating Nonlinear Economic Models Using Surrogate Transitions," 2012 Meeting Papers 494, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    339. Álvarez-Parra, Fernando & Brandao-Marques, Luis & Toledo, Manuel, 2013. "Durable goods, financial frictions, and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 720-736.
    340. Bora Durdu & Ricardo Nunes & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "News and sovereign default risk in small open economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 997, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    341. Martin M. Andreasen & Anders F. Kronborg, 2022. "The extended perturbation method: With applications to the New Keynesian model and the zero lower bound," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1171-1202, July.
    342. Liu, Hening & Miao, Jianjun, 2015. "Growth uncertainty, generalized disappointment aversion and production-based asset pricing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 70-89.
    343. Oliver de Groot & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Comment," Working Papers 1706, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    344. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 313-326.
    345. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Ng, Serena, 2017. "Level and volatility factors in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 52-68.
    346. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2012. "Common and idiosyncratic disturbances in developed small open economies," Working Papers 12-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    347. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2017. "Level and Volatility Shocks to Fiscal Policy: Term Structure Implications," 2017 Meeting Papers 258, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    348. Apostolou, Apostolos & Beirne, John, 2019. "Volatility spillovers of unconventional monetary policy to emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 118-129.
    349. Dongya Koh & Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, 2017. "Countercyclical Elasticity of Substitution," Working Papers 946, Barcelona School of Economics.
    350. Conrad, Christian & Hartmann, Matthias, 2019. "On the determinants of long-run inflation uncertainty: Evidence from a panel of 17 developed economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 233-250.
    351. Gete, Pedro & Melkadze, Givi, 2018. "Aggregate volatility and international dynamics. The role of credit supply," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 143-158.
    352. Steffen R. Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2017. "Dimensions Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 843-877, April.
    353. Sangyup Choi & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2015. "Uncertainty and Unemployment: The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels," IMF Working Papers 2015/036, International Monetary Fund.
    354. Cai, Yifei & Wu, Yanrui, 2019. "Time-varied causality between US partisan conflict shock and crude oil return," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    355. Barrail, Zulma, 2020. "Business cycle implications of rising household credit market participation in emerging countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    356. Martín Uribe, 2011. "Comment on "Risk, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 315-324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    357. Diogo Abry Guillen & Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2025. "Monetary policy decision making and communication under heightened uncertainty in Brazil," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy decision-making and communication under high uncertainty, volume 127, pages 39-50, Bank for International Settlements.
    358. Erik Öberg & Karl Harmenberg, 2016. "Durable Expenditure Dynamics under Time-Varying Income Risk," 2016 Meeting Papers 672, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    359. Dao, Ngoc Bich & Truong, Huong Hoang Diep & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Chu, Lan Khanh, 2024. "The impacts of natural resources rents diversification, uncertainty, and environmental technologies on ecological sustainability: Empirical evidence from OECD countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    360. Flaccadoro, Marco & Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2025. "Foreign monetary policy and domestic inflation in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    361. Julian Andrés Diaz Tautiva & Felipe Ignacio Rifo Rivera & Sebastian Andrés Barros Celume & Sergio Andrés Rifo Rivera, 2024. "Mapping the research about organisations in the latin american context: a bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 74(1), pages 121-169, February.
    362. Marina Azzimonti & Matthew Talbert, 2011. "Partisan cycles and the consumption volatility puzzle," Working Papers 11-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    363. Lott, Sherwin, 2019. "Perturbations in DSGE models: An odd derivatives theorem," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    364. Levintal, Oren, 2017. "Fifth-order perturbation solution to DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-16.
    365. Lin, Jianhao & Fan, Jiacheng & Zhang, Yifan, 2025. "Information Dissemination and the Monetary Policy Uncertainty Premium: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    366. Okan Akarsu & Fatih Karahan & Huzeyfe Torun, 2025. "Communication as policy and firm uncertainty: evidence from randomised control trial," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy decision-making and communication under high uncertainty, volume 127, pages 121-140, Bank for International Settlements.
    367. Jun E. Li, 2025. "Credit Market Frictions and the Linkage Between Dispersion and Macro Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(6), pages 5288-5307, June.
    368. Sergey Egiev, 2016. "On Persistence of Uncertainty Shocks," HSE Working papers WP BRP 144/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    369. Taisuke Nakata, 2017. "Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 186-221, July.
    370. Lucas F. Husted & John H. Rogers & Bo Sun, 2017. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty," International Finance Discussion Papers 1215, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    371. Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Ajevskis, Viktors & Brázdik, František & Garcia, Pablo & Gatt, William & Lima, Diana & Mavromatis, Kostas & Ortega, Eva & Papadopoulou, Niki & De Lorenzo, Ivan & Kolb, Benedikt, 2024. "Using structural models to understand macroeconomic tail risks," Occasional Paper Series 357, European Central Bank.
    372. Isoré, Marlène & Szczerbowicz, Urszula, 2015. "Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model," MPRA Paper 65643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    373. Llosa, Luis Gonzalo & Pérez-Forero, Fernando J. & Tuesta, Vicente, 2025. "Uncertainty shocks and financial conditions in Latin-American countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    374. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    375. Bonciani, Dario & Ricci, Martino, 2020. "The international effects of global financial uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    376. Pierlauro Lopez & J. David López-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2022. "Accounting for Risk in a Linearized Solution: How to Approximate the Risky Steady State and Around It," Working Papers 22-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    377. Ali Chebbi, 2015. "Stochastic growth, taxation policy and welfare cost in an open emerging economy," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 62(1), pages 57-84, March.
    378. Cho, Deaha & Han, Yoonshin & Oh, Joonseok & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2020. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Uncertainty Shocks," Dynare Working Papers 61, CEPREMAP.
    379. Helena Chuliá & Ignacio Garrón & Jorge M. Uribe, 2021. ""Vulnerable Funding in the Global Economy"," IREA Working Papers 202106, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2021.
    380. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2018. "The role of uncertainty, sentiment and cross‐country interactions in G7 output dynamics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(2), pages 391-418, May.
    381. Ricardo M. Reyes-Heroles & Gabriel Tenorio, 2017. "Managing Capital Flows in the Presence of External Risks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1213, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    382. Wang, Xinya & Xu, Xin & Rong, Xueyun & Xuan, Siyuan, 2024. "Identification of the contagion effect in China's financial market uncertainties: A multiscale and dynamic perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1340-1362.
    383. Paul Luk & David Vines, 2014. "Debt Deleveraging and the Zero Bound: Potentially Perverse Effects of Real Exchange Rate Movements," Working Papers 202014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    384. Luigi Bocola, 2014. "The Pass-Through of Sovereign Risk," 2014 Meeting Papers 1286, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    385. Michael Patrick Curran & Adnan Velic, 2017. "Interest Rate Volatility And Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Cross-Country Analysis," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 35, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
    386. Ivan Alfaro & Nicholas Bloom & Xiaoji Lin, 2018. "The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier," NBER Working Papers 24571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    387. Francesco Corsello & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2020. "Labor Market and Financial Shocks: A Time‐Varying Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 777-801, June.
    388. Kimberly A. Berg & Nam T. Vu, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of sectoral shifts under low and high uncertainty," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1149-1171, July.
    389. Roberto Chang & Andrés Fernández, 2013. "On The Sources Of Aggregate Fluctuations In Emerging Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1265-1293, November.
    390. de Groot, Oliver & Durdu, C. Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2025. "Why global and local solutions of open-economy models with incomplete markets differ and why it matters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    391. Sergio De Ferra & Enrico Mallucci, 2020. "Sovereign Risk Matters: The Effects of Endogenous Default Risk on the Time-Varying Volatility of Interest Rate Spreads," International Finance Discussion Papers 1276, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    392. Li, Li & Tang, Yao & Xiang, Jingjie, 2020. "Measuring China's monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the real economy," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    393. Hernán D. Seoane, 2017. "Markups And The Real Effects Of Volatility Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(3), pages 807-828, August.
    394. Šustek, Roman, 2011. "Plant-level nonconvex output adjustment and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 400-414.
    395. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2023. "Structural sources of oil market volatility and correlation dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    396. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "How important are different aspects of uncertainty in driving industrial production in the CEE countries?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 252-266.
    397. Larry Epstein & Shaolin Ji, 2011. "Ambiguous Volatility, Possibility and Utility in Continuous Time," Papers 1103.1652, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.
    398. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca, 2020. "Fragility and the effect of international uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    399. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty: Persistence and cross-country linkages," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    400. Bibiana Lanzilotta & Gabriel Merlo & Gabriela Mordecki & Viviana Umpierrez, 2023. "Understanding Uncertainty Shocks in Uruguay Through VAR Modeling," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(3), pages 399-419, November.
    401. Ferrari, Massimo, 2014. "The financial meltdown: a model with endogenous default probability," MPRA Paper 59419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    402. Izhakian, Yehuda, 2020. "A theoretical foundation of ambiguity measurement," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    403. Gao, Lin & Hitzemann, Steffen & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Xu, Lai, 2022. "Oil volatility risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 456-491.
    404. Valeriu Nalban & Andra Smadu, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and the monetary-macroprudential policy mix," Working Papers 739, DNB.
    405. Laura Veldkamp & Anna Orlik, 2014. "Uncertainty Shocks and the Role of the Black Swan," 2014 Meeting Papers 275, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    406. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    407. Klodiana Istrefi & Anamaria Piloiu, 2013. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Trust and Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 4294, CESifo.
    408. Bouakez, Hafedh & Essid, Badye & Normandin, Michel, 2013. "Stock returns and monetary policy: Are there any ties?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 33-50.
    409. Bank for International Settlements, 2025. "Monetary policy decision-making and communication under high uncertainty," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 163.
    410. Li Zhe & Luo Shuixing, 2019. "Is risk shock a key factor driving business cycles in China?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-18, January.
    411. Hamed Ahmad Almahadin, 2022. "Spillover Effects of US Monetary Policy on Banking Development: Evidence from the Asian Region," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 23(1), pages 7-19, February.
    412. Awijen, Haithem & Ben Zaied, Younes & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Endogenous Financial Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evidence from the United States," MPRA Paper 101276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2020.
    413. Anastasiia Antonova & Mykhailo Matvieiev & Céline Poilly, 2025. "Macroeconomic Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2538, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    414. Goodness C. Aye, 2021. "Short and Long Run Asymmetric Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Uncertainty on Economic Activity in the U.S," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(1), pages 83-96.
    415. Berg, Kimberly A. & Vu, Nam T., 2019. "International spillovers of U.S. financial volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 19-34.
    416. Tanaka, Hiroatsu, 2025. "Equilibrium yield curves with imperfect information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    417. Laurent E. Calvet & Veronika Czellar, 2011. "State-Observation Sampling and the Econometrics of Learning Models," Papers 1105.4519, arXiv.org.
    418. Carrière-Swallow, Yan & Céspedes, Luis Felipe, 2013. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 316-325.
    419. Horvath, Jaroslav, 2018. "Business cycles, informal economy, and interest rates in emerging countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 96-116.
    420. OH, Joonseok, 2019. "The propagation of uncertainty shocks : Rotemberg vs. Calvo," Economics Working Papers ECO 2019/01, European University Institute.
    421. Rüdiger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2011. "Uncertainty Business Cycles - Really?," NBER Working Papers 16862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    422. Apostolou, Apostolos & Beirne, John, 2017. "Volatility spillovers of Federal Reserve and ECB balance sheet expansions to emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 2044, European Central Bank.
    423. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, January.
    424. Bouakez, Hafedh & Chihi, Foued & Normandin, Michel, 2014. "Fiscal policy and external adjustment: New evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-20.
    425. Lu, Yunzhi & Li, Jie & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Time-varying impacts of monetary policy uncertainty on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    426. Den Haan, Wouter J. & De Wind, Joris, 2012. "Nonlinear and stable perturbation-based approximations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1477-1497.
    427. Ding, Yibing & Liu, Ziyu & Liu, Dayu, 2022. "Structural news shock, financial market uncertainty and China's business fluctuations," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    428. Horvath, Jaroslav & Yang, Guanyi, 2022. "Unemployment dynamics and informality in small open economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    429. Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo & Tenorio, Gabriel, 2019. "Regime-switching in emerging market business cycles: Interest rate volatility and sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 81-100.
    430. Petar Sorić, 2018. "Consumer confidence as a GDP determinant in New EU Member States: a view from a time-varying perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 261-282, May.
    431. Michael Hatcher, 2011. "Time-varying volatility, precautionary saving and monetary policy," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 440, Bank of England.
    432. Medina, Juan Pablo, 2021. "Mining development and macroeconomic spillovers in Chile," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    433. Daniel F. Waggoner & Hongwei Wu & Tao Zha, 2014. "The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    434. Pierlauro Lopez & David Lopez-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2018. "Risk-Adjusted Linearizations of Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Working papers 702, Banque de France.
    435. Martin Andreasen, 2011. "How non-Gaussian shocks affect risk premia in non-linear DSGE models," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 417, Bank of England.
    436. Le Thanh Ha & To Trung Thanh & Doan Ngoc Thang, 2021. "Welfare costs of monetary policy uncertainty in the economy with shifting trend inflation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 126-154, February.
    437. Fontaine, Idriss & Razafindravaosolonirina, Justinien & Didier, Laurent, 2018. "Chinese policy uncertainty shocks and the world macroeconomy: Evidence from STVAR," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-19.
    438. Cross, Jamie & Kam, Timothy & Poon, Aubrey, 2025. "Volatility shocks in markets and policies: What matters for a small open economy like Canada?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    439. Ahn, Kwangwon & Chu, Zhuang & Lee, Daeyong, 2021. "Effects of renewable energy use in the energy mix on social welfare," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    440. Berthold, Brendan, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty and risk aversion shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    441. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    442. Chan, Ying Tung & Dong, Yilin, 2022. "How does oil price volatility affect unemployment rates? A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    443. Goodness C. Aye & Matthew W. Clance & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "The effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on U.S. inequality: the role of uncertainty," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 283-295, January.
    444. Maennig, Wolfgang & Wilhelm, Stefan, 2023. "News and noise in crime politics: The role of announcements and risk attitudes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    445. Yang Liu & Mariano Croce & Ivan Shaliastovich & Ric Colacito, 2016. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," 2016 Meeting Papers 135, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    446. Husnu C. Dalgic, 2024. "Financial Dollarization In Emerging Markets: An Insurance Arrangement," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1189-1219, August.
    447. Michael Curran & Adnan Velic, 2020. "Interest rate volatility and macroeconomic dynamics: Heterogeneity matters," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 957-975, September.
    448. Yadav, Jayant, 2020. "Flight to Safety in Business cycles," MPRA Paper 104093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    449. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Gazzani, Andrea & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2023. "Are the effects of uncertainty shocks big or small?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    450. Tang, Wenjin & Ding, Saijie & Chen, Hao, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and its spillover networks: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    451. Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2014. "Uncertainty in a model with credit frictions," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 496, Bank of England.
    452. Francisco Roch & Juan Urquiza & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2026. "U.S. Fiscal Volatility Spillovers to Emerging Economies," Working Papers 400, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    453. Dario Caldara & Chiara Scotti & Molin Zhong, 2021. "Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 1326, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    454. Haroon Mumtaz, 2011. "Estimating the impact of the volatility of shocks: a structural VAR approach," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 437, Bank of England.
    455. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen, 2017. "Business Cycles In Small Open Economies: Evidence From Panel Data Between 1900 And 2013," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1007-1044, August.
    456. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Domestic and Global Uncertainty: A Survey and Some New Results," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    457. Joshua Bernstein & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2021. "Countercyclical Fluctuations in Uncertainty are Endogenous," Working Papers 2109, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    458. Anthony M. Diercks & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2020. "When it Rains it Pours: Cascading Uncertainty Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    459. Ngozi E. Egbuna (PhD) & Maimuna John-Sowe & Dauda Mohammed (PhD) & Hissan Abubakari & Eric L. Sambolah & Kormay Adams, 2020. "Uncertainty And Economic Performance In The West African Monetary Zone (Wamz): A Fixed Effect Panel Threshold Approach," Working Papers 19, West African Monetary Institute.
    460. Paul Luk & Tianxiao Zheng, 2020. "Foreign Direct Investment and Debt Financing in Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 863-905, June.
    461. R. Colacito & M. M. Croce & Y. Liu & I. Shaliastovich, 2026. "Volatility (Dis)Connect in International Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 72(6), pages 4697-4714, June.
    462. Eyquem, Aurélien & Poilly, Céline & Belianska, Anna, 2023. "On portfolio frictions, asset returns and volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    463. Gleb Kurovskiy, 2017. "Modelling terms of trade volatility impact on output dynamics in Russia," EcoMod2017 10361, EcoMod.

  35. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2009. "Do uncertainty and technology drive exchange rates?," Working Papers 09-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

    Cited by:

    1. Uribe, Martín & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7264, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Eric van Wincoop & Cedric Tille & Philippe Bacchetta, 2010. "On the Dynamics of Leverage, Liquidity, and Risk," 2010 Meeting Papers 393, Society for Economic Dynamics.

  36. Pablo A. Guerron, 2007. "What You Match Does Matter: The Effects of Data on DSGE Estimation," Working Paper Series 012, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo & Matthes, Christian, 2013. "Choosing the variables to estimate singular DSGE models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9381, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Havranek, Tomas & Rusnak, Marek & Sokolova, Anna, 2017. "Habit formation in consumption: A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 142-167.
    3. Takashi Kano & James M. Nason, 2014. "Business Cycle Implications of Internal Consumption Habit for New Keynesian Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 519-544, March.
    4. Patrick F ve & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2016. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area," Working papers 585, Banque de France.
    5. Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Schorfheide, Frank & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Kryshko, Maxym & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2012. "Methods versus substance: Measuring the effects of technology shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 826-846.
    6. Adolfson, Malin & Lindé, Jesper, 2011. "Parameter Identification in a Estimated New Keynesian Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 251, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    7. Matus Senaj & Milan Vyskrabka & Juraj Zeman, 2010. "MUSE: Monetary Union and Slovak Economy model," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2010, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    8. Linde, Jesper & LASEEN, PER & Ratto, Marco, 2019. "Identification Versus Misspecification in New Keynesian Monetary Policy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 13492, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    9. Yongquan Cao & Grey Gordon, 2019. "A Practical Approach to Testing Calibration Strategies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 1165-1182, March.
    10. Zhongjun Qu & Fan Zhuo, 2015. "Likelihood Ratio Based Tests for Markov Regime Switching," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-003, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    11. Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2019. "Implications of Partial Information for Applied Macroeconomic Modelling," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    12. Tyler Atkinson & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "The Zero Lower Bound and Estimation Accuracy," Working Papers 1804, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    13. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron P., 2011. "On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-18, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    14. Creel, Michael & Kristensen, Dennis, 2011. "Indirect Likelihood Inference," Dynare Working Papers 8, CEPREMAP.
    15. Enrique Martínez García & Diego Vilán & Mark A. Wynne, 2012. "Bayesian estimation of NOEM models: identification and inference in small samples," Globalization Institute Working Papers 105, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Kortelainen, Mika & Paloviita, Maritta & Viren, Matti, 2016. "How useful are measured expectations in estimation and simulation of a conventional small New Keynesian macro model?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 540-550.
    17. Thorsten Drautzburg, 2016. "A narrative approach to a fiscal DSGE model," Working Papers 16-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    18. Silva, Mario Rafael & Urias, Marshall, 2025. "Productive demand and sectoral capacity utilization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    19. Canova, Fabio & Matthes, Christian, 2018. "A composite likelihood approach for dynamic structural models," CEPR Discussion Papers 13245, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    20. Giorgio Motta & Patrizio Tirelli, 2011. "Optimal Simple Monetary and Fiscal Rules under Limited Asset Market Participation," Working Papers 204, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2011.
    21. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2016. "Assessing labor market frictions in a small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 231-251.
    22. Zhongjun Qu, 2015. "A Composite Likelihood Framework for Analyzing Singular DSGE Models," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-002, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    23. Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2018. "How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model-based output gap estimates," IMFS Working Paper Series 121, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    24. Enrique Martínez García, 2015. "The global component of local inflation: revisiting the empirical content of the global slack hypothesis with Bayesian methods," Globalization Institute Working Papers 225, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    25. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    26. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2014. "Liquidity, Trends and the Great Recession," Working Papers e066, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    27. Sergey Ivashchenko & Willi Mutschler, 2019. "The effect of observables, functional specifications, model features and shocks on identification in linearized DSGE models," CQE Working Papers 8319, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    28. Marcin Kolasa & Michał Rubaszek & Paweł Skrzypczyński, 2012. "Putting the New Keynesian DSGE Model to the Real‐Time Forecasting Test," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1301-1324, October.
    29. Hall, Jamie & Pitt, Michael K. & Kohn, Robert, 2014. "Bayesian inference for nonlinear structural time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(2), pages 99-111.
    30. Nwaobi, Godwin, 2012. "Monetary Policies and Nigerian Economy:Simulations from Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)Model," MPRA Paper 38167, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Enrique Martínez García & Mark A. Wynne, 2014. "Assessing Bayesian model comparison in small samples," Globalization Institute Working Papers 189, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    32. Luca Sala, 2013. "DSGE models in the frequency domain," Working Papers 504, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    33. Taisuke Nakata, 2017. "Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 186-221, July.
    34. Kim, Kwang Hwan & Katayama, Munechika, 2013. "Non-separability and sectoral comovement in a sticky price model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1715-1735.
    35. GUERRON-QUINTANA, Pablo A. & JINNAI, Ryo & 陣内, 了, 2015. "Financial Frictions, Trends, and the Great Recession," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-14, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    36. Martin Fukac & Vladimir Havlena, 2011. "Note on the role of natural condition of control in the estimation of DSGE models," Research Working Paper RWP 11-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    37. Lahcen, Mohammed Ait, 2014. "DSGE models for developing economies: an application to Morocco," MPRA Paper 63404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Sacha Gelfer, 2019. "Data-Rich DSGE Model Forecasts of the Great Recession and its Recovery," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 18-41, April.
    39. Alok Johri & Muhebullah Karimzada, 2021. "Learning efficiency shocks, knowledge capital and the business cycle: A Bayesian evaluation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1314-1360, November.

Articles

  1. Gordon, Grey & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo, 2024. "On regional borrowing, default, and migration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2023. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 333-371, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2022. "Politics and Income Distribution," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 7(2), pages 11-18, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad, Muhammad Farooq & Lambert, Thomas & Martín-Flores, José M. & Romec, Arthur, 2024. "Does democracy shape international merger activity?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

  4. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana, 2021. "Estimating DSGE Models: Recent Advances and Future Challenges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 229-252, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Drautzburg, Thorsten & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo, 2021. "Bargaining shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Pablo A. Guerron‐Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2019. "Financial frictions, trends, and the great recession," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(2), pages 735-773, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2020. "Recurrent Bubbles and Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 2012, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    2. Garga, Vaishali & Singh, Sanjay R., 2021. "Output hysteresis and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 871-886.
    3. Abbritti, Mirko & Consolo, Agostino, 2022. "Labour market skills, endogenous productivity and business cycles," Working Paper Series 2651, European Central Bank.
    4. Ryoji Ohdoi, 2023. "Financial shocks to banks, R&D investment, and recessions," Discussion Paper Series 250, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Aug 2023.
    5. Sergio Salas, 2022. "A liquidity crunch in an endogenous growth model with human capital," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(3), pages 1199-1238, January.
    6. Salas, Sergio & Odell, Kathleen, 2023. "Why are credit-driven crises deep and long-lasting?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 233-246.
    7. Werner, Maximilian, 2023. "Occasionally binding liquidity constraints and macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    8. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Pål Ulvedal, 2021. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Payne Hennigan, 2025. "Conglomerates, Liquidity Shocks, and Innovation-Led Growth," Papers 2505.13993, arXiv.org.
    10. Antonio Fatás & Sanjay R. Singh, 2023. "Supply or Demand? Policy Makers' Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis," Working Paper Series 2023-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Philipp Pfeiffer, 2017. "How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy," 2017 Meeting Papers 324, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Felipe Benguria & Felipe Saffie & Hidehiko Matsumoto, 2019. "Productivity and Trade Dynamics in Sudden Stops," 2019 Meeting Papers 1378, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Ryoji Ohdoi & Kazuo Mino & Yunfang Hu, 2023. "Credit constraints, firm selection, and growth: The international transmission of a credit crunch via trade," Discussion Paper Series 256-2, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Jun 2026.
    14. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," NBER Working Papers 26768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Hasumi, Ryo & Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Nakamura, Daisuke, 2017. "R&D Growth and Business Cycles Measured with an Endogenous Growth DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 85525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Alban Moura & Olivier Pierrard, 2022. "How well do DSGE models with real estate and collateral constraints fit the data?," BCL working papers 168, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    17. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2022. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," Discussion Papers 2215, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    18. Yao Chen & Felix Ward, 2022. "Output Divergence in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-031/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 22 May 2025.
    19. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2021. "Recession-specific recoveries: L’s, U’s and everything in between," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    20. Mi, Michelle Xuan & Masih, Rumi, 2025. "How resilient are PE/VC returns to real shocks?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    21. Abbritti, Mirko & Consolo, Agostino & Weber, Sebastian, 2021. "Endogenous growth, downward wage rigidity and optimal inflation," Working Paper Series 2635, European Central Bank.
    22. Cozzi, Guido & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco, 2021. "How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    23. Sergio Salas & Kathleen Odell, 2020. "Financial Deepening, Credit Crises, Human Capital and Growth," Working Papers 2020-01, Escuela de Negocios y Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso.
    24. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2021. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Ups and Downs in Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," Discussion Papers 2119, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    25. Nils M. Gornemann & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Felipe Saffie, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Endogenous Productivity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1301, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Damiano Di Francesco & Omar Pietro Carnevale, 2025. "Are Hysteresis Effects Nonlinear?," LEM Papers Series 2025/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    27. Fève, Patrick & Moura, Alban & Pierrard, Olivier, 2022. "The fall in shadow banking and the slow U.S. recovery," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    28. Daisuke Ikeda & Hidehiko Matsumoto, 2025. "Towards a Macroeconomic Model of Banking Crises," IMES Discussion Paper Series 25-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    29. Sohei Kaihatsu & Maiko Koga & Tomoya Sakata & Naoko Hara, 2018. "Interaction between Business Cycles and Economic Growth," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-12, Bank of Japan.
    30. Monacelli, Tommaso & Sala, Luca & Siena, Daniele, 2023. "Real interest rates and productivity in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    31. Schmitz, Tom, 2021. "Endogenous growth, firm heterogeneity and the long-run impact of financial crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    32. Valeriu Nalban & Andra Smadu, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and the monetary-macroprudential policy mix," Working Papers 739, DNB.
    33. Sergio Salas, 2018. "On financial deepening and long-run growth," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 249-276, April.
    34. Larch, Martin & Claeys, Peter & Van Der Wielen, Wouter, 2022. "The scarring effects of major economic downturns: The role of fiscal policy and government investment," EIB Working Papers 2022/14, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    35. Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo, 2023. "Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1121-1142, August.
    36. Zhu, Zixiang & Zhou, Weimin & Wen, Yake, 2026. "The hysteresis effects of investment shocks in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).

  8. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2018. "Dynamics of Investment, Debt, and Default," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 71-95, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo & Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2017. "Impulse response matching estimators for DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 144-155.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Gordon, Grey & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2017. "Asymmetric business cycles and sovereign default," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 116-119.

    Cited by:

    1. Yuanchen Cai & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2025. "Lopsided Interest Rates in International Borrowing Markets," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1088, Boston College Department of Economics.
    2. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2020. "“Migration and sovereign default risk” a comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 23-27.

  11. Dotsey, Michael & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2016. "Interest rates and prices in an inventory model of money with credit," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 71-89.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Gordon, Grey & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Nonlinear adventures at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 182-204.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium models with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 216-229.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2014. "Supply-Side Policies and the Zero Lower Bound," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(2), pages 248-260, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2013. "Common and idiosyncratic disturbances in developed small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  17. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2012. "Risk and uncertainty," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 9-18.

    Cited by:

    1. Michał Brzozowski & Grzegorz Tchorek, 2017. "Exchange Rate Risk as an Obstacle to Export Activity," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 115-141.
    2. Keith Sill, 2012. "Measuring economic uncertainty using the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 16-27.

  18. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2011. "The implications of inflation in an estimated new Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 947-962, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Guerron Pablo A & Grennes Thomas J & Leblebicioglu Asli, 2011. "Economic Development and Heterogeneity in the Great Moderation among the States," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-21, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Areendam Chanda & Bibhudutta Panda, 2016. "Productivity Growth In Goods And Services Across The Heterogeneous States Of America," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(2), pages 1021-1045, April.
    2. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina & Keith Sill, 2011. "The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility," Working Papers 11-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

  20. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Thomas Grennes & Pablo Guerron-quintana & Asli Leblebicioglu, 2010. "Economic Development and Volatility among the States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 1963-1976.

    Cited by:

    1. Francisco J. Pallares & Richard V. Adkisson, 2017. "The Impact of Industrial Diversification on Employment Growth in the 50 U.S. States: 2000-2013," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 31(4), pages 275-284, November.

  22. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana, 2010. "What you match does matter: the effects of data on DSGE estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 774-804.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2010. "Reading the recent monetary history of the United States, 1959-2007," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(May), pages 311-338.

    Cited by:

    1. Sergey Ivashchenko, 2014. "Forecasting in a Non-Linear DSGE Model," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2014/02, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
    2. Wong, Chin-Yoong & Eng, Yoke-Kee, 2013. "International business cycle co-movement and vertical specialization reconsidered in multistage Bayesian DSGE model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 109-124.
    3. Pablo Guerróon‐Quintana & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in times of crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 295-320, April.

  24. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2009. "Money demand heterogeneity and the great moderation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 255-266, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2011. "The implications of inflation in an estimated new Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 947-962, June.
    2. Ćorić, Bruno & Pugh, Geoff, 2013. "Foreign direct investment and output growth volatility: A worldwide analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 260-271.
    3. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
    4. Michael Dotsey & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2012. "Interest rates and prices in an inventory model of money with credit," Working Papers 13-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Caterina Mendicino, 2012. "Collateral Requirements: Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Macro-Prudential Policy," Working Papers w201211, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Bernardino Adão & André C. Silva, 2021. "Government financing, inflation, and the financial sector," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 71(4), pages 1357-1396, June.
    7. Nicola Acocella & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Patrizio Tirelli, 2014. "US trend inflation reinterpreted. The role of fiscal policies and time-varying nominal rigidities," CIMEO Working Paper Series 108, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    8. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    9. Kumar, Saten & Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2012. "Error-correction based panel estimates of the demand for money of selected Asian countries with the extreme bounds analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1181-1188.
    10. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2014. "Nonfinancial sectors debt and the U.S. great moderation," Research Report 14030-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    11. Roberta, Cardani & Lorenzo, Menna & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2016. "Optimal Public Debt Consolidation with Distributional Conflicts," Working Papers 350, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 05 Oct 2016.
    12. S. Boragan Aruoba & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Sticky prices versus monetary frictions: an estimation of policy trade-offs," Working Papers 09-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    13. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2013. "Debt and the U.S. Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 47399, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Bezemer, Dirk J & Grydaki, Maria, 2012. "Mortgage Lending and the Great moderation: a multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 36356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Andre C. Silva, 2014. "Rebalancing frequency and the welfare cost of inflation," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp587, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    16. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Patrizio Tirelli & Nicola Acocella, 2013. "The comeback of inflation as an optimal public finance tool," Working Papers 263, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
    17. Den Haan, Wouter & Sterk, Vincent, 2009. "The Myth of Financial Innovation and the Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7507, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    18. Lorenzo, Menna & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2016. "Optimal Inflation to Reduce Inequality," Working Papers 353, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2016.
    19. Lorenzo Menna & Patrizio Tirelli, 2014. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policies," Working Papers 284, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2014.
    20. Roberta, Cardani & Lorenzo, Menna & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2016. "The Optimal Policy Mix to Achieve Public Debt Consolidation," Working Papers 356, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 31 Dec 2016.
    21. Emilio Abad-Segura & Mariana-Daniela González-Zamar & Juan C. Infante-Moro & Germán Ruipérez García, 2020. "Sustainable Management of Digital Transformation in Higher Education: Global Research Trends," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-24, March.

  25. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2008. "Refinements on macroeconomic modeling: The role of non-separability and heterogeneous labor supply," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3613-3630, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2010. "Intertemporal Substitution and Sectoral Comovement in a Sticky Price Model," Departmental Working Papers 2010-01, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    2. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2011. "Trend growth and the dynamic effects of government spending," Kiel Working Papers 1678, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    3. Lawrence Christiano & Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin, 2021. "Involuntary Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 26-54, January.
    4. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2016. "The impact of disembodied technological progress on working hours," Kiel Working Papers 2026, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    5. Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2013. "Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules in a two-block world economy," Kiel Working Papers 1818, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin, 2010. "DSGE models for monetary policy analysis," FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper 2010-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Alessandro Cantelmo & Giovanni Melina, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Relative Price of Durable Goods," CESifo Working Paper Series 5328, CESifo.
    8. Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2015. "Inter-sectoral Labor Immobility, Sectoral Co-movement, and News Shocks," Discussion papers e-15-011, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    9. Lawrence J. Christiano, 2011. "Comment on "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 361-380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Katayama, Munechika & Kim, Kwang Hwan, 2013. "The delayed effects of monetary shocks in a two-sector New Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 243-259.
    11. Lawrence J. Christiano, 2012. "Comment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 361-380.
    12. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2013. "Trend productivity growth and the government spending multiplier," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 197-207.
    13. Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris, 2012. "Euler equations and monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 1-5.
    14. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2009. "Money demand heterogeneity and the great moderation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 255-266, March.
    15. Roman Goncharenko & Elizaveta Lukmanova, 2026. "Persistent monetary policy in a model with involuntary unemployment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 64(2), pages 614-640, April.
    16. Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2017. "A Note On Trend Growth And Learning About Monetary Policy Rules In A Two-Block World Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 243-258, January.

Software components

  1. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2017. "Code and data files for "Dynamics of Investment, Debt, and Default"," Computer Codes 14-216, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of software components recorded.

Chapters

  1. Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & James M. Nason, 2013. "Bayesian estimation of DSGE models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 21, pages 486-512, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    See citations under working paper version above.Sorry, no citations of chapters recorded.
IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.