IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/macdyn/v27y2023i2p456-481_8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Lending standards, productivity, and credit crunches

Author

Listed:
  • Swarbrick, Jonathan

Abstract

We propose a macroeconomic model in which adverse selection in investment amplifies macroeconomic fluctuations, in line with the prominent role played by the credit crunch during the financial crisis. Endogenous lending standards emerge due to an informational asymmetry between borrowers and lenders about the riskiness of borrowers. By using loan approval probability as a screening device, banks ration credit following increases in lending risk, generating large endogenous movements in TFP, explaining why productivity often falls during crises. Furthermore, the mechanism implies that financial instability is heightened when interest rates are low.

Suggested Citation

  • Swarbrick, Jonathan, 2023. "Lending standards, productivity, and credit crunches," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 456-481, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:27:y:2023:i:2:p:456-481_8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1365100521000481/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S Borağan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Frank Schorfheide, 2018. "Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 87-118.
    2. David de Meza & David C. Webb, 1987. "Too Much Investment: A Problem of Asymmetric Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(2), pages 281-292.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    4. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Gordon, Grey & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Nonlinear adventures at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 182-204.
    5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    6. Bertsch, Christoph, 2013. "A detrimental feedback loop: deleveraging and adverse selection," Working Paper Series 277, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    7. Patrick Bolton & Mathias Dewatripont, 2005. "Contract Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262025760, December.
    8. Gregory S. Crawford & Nicola Pavanini & Fabiano Schivardi, 2018. "Asymmetric Information and Imperfect Competition in Lending Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1659-1701, July.
    9. Camargo, Braz & Lester, Benjamin, 2014. "Trading dynamics in decentralized markets with adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 534-568.
    10. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "A macroeconomic model with a financial sector," Working Paper Research 236, National Bank of Belgium.
    11. Benhabib, Jess & Dong, Feng & Wang, Pengfei, 2018. "Adverse selection and self-fulfilling business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 114-130.
    12. Jonathan Chiu & Thorsten V. Koeppl, 2016. "Trading Dynamics with Adverse Selection and Search: Market Freeze, Intervention and Recovery," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(3), pages 969-1000.
    13. Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2010. "Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 141, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2015. "Understanding the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 110-167, January.
    15. Bester, Helmut, 1985. "Screening vs. Rationing in Credit Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 850-855, September.
    16. Robert Cressy & Otto Toivanen, 2001. "Is there adverse selection in the credit market?," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 215-238, July.
    17. Gian Luca Clementi & Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 2006. "A Theory of Financing Constraints and Firm Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(1), pages 229-265.
    18. Jonathan Chiu & Thorsten V. Koeppl, 2016. "Trading Dynamics with Adverse Selection and Search: Market Freeze, Intervention and Recovery," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(3), pages 969-1000.
    19. Daniel O. Beltran & Charles P. Thomas, 2010. "Could asymmetric information alone have caused the collapse of private-label securitization?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1010, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Filardo, Andrew J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2020. "The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Hibiki Ichiue & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Yasin Mimir & Jolan Mohimont & Kalin Nikolov & Olivier de Bandt & Sigrid Roehrs & Valério Scalone & Michael Straughan & Bora Durdu, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of Basel III: Evidence from Structural Macroeconomic Models," Working Papers hal-04159816, HAL.
    3. Ewa Wróbel, 2022. "What drives bank lending policy? The evidence from bank lending survey for Poland," NBP Working Papers 352, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    4. Jonathan Swarbrick, 2021. "Occasionally Binding Constraints in Large Models: A Review of Solution Methods," Discussion Papers 2021-5, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Böhl, Gregor & Strobel, Felix, 2020. "US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound," IMFS Working Paper Series 143, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000384, David K. Levine.
    3. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi, September.
    4. Benhabib, Jess & Dong, Feng & Wang, Pengfei, 2018. "Adverse selection and self-fulfilling business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 114-130.
    5. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    6. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver, 2017. "Unexpected loan losses and bank capital in an estimated DSGE model of the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 161-186.
    7. Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Alexey Khazanov & Molin Zhong, 2023. "Financial and Macroeconomic Data Through the Lens of a Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Aruoba, S. Borağan & Bocola, Luigi & Schorfheide, Frank, 2017. "Assessing DSGE model nonlinearities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 34-54.
    9. Cuong Le Van & Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2016. "Intertemporal equilibrium with financial asset and physical capital," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 155-199, June.
    10. Jesper Lindé & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "Should we use linearized models to calculate fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 937-965, November.
    11. Tamim Bayoumi & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Karl F Habermeier & Tommaso Mancini Griffoli & Fabian Valencia, 2014. "Monetary Policy in the New Normal," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/3, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Jondeau, Eric & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2022. "Bank capital shortfall in the euro area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Wu, Jing Cynthia & Zhang, Ji, 2019. "A shadow rate New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Shengxing Zhang, 2014. "Collateral Risk, Repo Rollover and Shadow Banking," 2014 Meeting Papers 562, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Marco Bassetto & Marco Cagetti & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2015. "Credit Crunches and Credit Allocation in a Model of Entrepreneurship," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 53-76, January.
    16. Jondeau, Eric & Khalilzadeh, Amir, 2017. "Collateralization, leverage, and stressed expected loss," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 226-243.
    17. Giacomo Carboni & Christoffer Kok & Matthieu Darrak Paries, 2014. "Exploring the Nexus Between Macro-Prudential Policies and Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area," Working Papers BFI_2013-005, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    18. Michał Brzoza‐Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2013. "Bayesian Evaluation of DSGE Models with Financial Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1451-1476, December.
    19. Juliane Begenau, 2015. "Capital Requirements, Risk Choice, and Liquidity Provision in a Business Cycle Model," 2015 Meeting Papers 687, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Atkeson, Andrew G. & Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2017. "Measuring the financial soundness of U.S. firms, 1926–2012," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 613-635.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:27:y:2023:i:2:p:456-481_8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/mdy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.