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Lending Standards, Productivity and Credit Crunches

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  • Jonathan Swarbrick

Abstract

We propose a macroeconomic model in which adverse selection in investment drives the amplification of macroeconomic fluctuations, in line with prominent roles played by the credit crunch and collapse of the asset-backed security market in the financial crisis. Endogenous lending standards emerge due to an informational asymmetry between borrowers and lenders about the riskiness of borrowers. By using loan approval probability as a screening device, banks ration credit following financial disturbances, generating large endogenous movements in total factor productivity, explaining why productivity often falls during crises. Furthermore, the mechanism implies that financial instability is heightened when interest rates are low.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Swarbrick, 2019. "Lending Standards, Productivity and Credit Crunches," Staff Working Papers 19-25, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:19-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gregory S. Crawford & Nicola Pavanini & Fabiano Schivardi, 2018. "Asymmetric Information and Imperfect Competition in Lending Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1659-1701, July.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2014. "A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 379-421, February.
    3. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Gordon, Grey & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Nonlinear adventures at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 182-204.
    4. Bertsch, Christoph, 2013. "A detrimental feedback loop: deleveraging and adverse selection," Working Paper Series 277, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    5. Gian Luca Clementi & Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 2006. "A Theory of Financing Constraints and Firm Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(1), pages 229-265.
    6. Camargo, Braz & Lester, Benjamin, 2014. "Trading dynamics in decentralized markets with adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 534-568.
    7. Benhabib, Jess & Dong, Feng & Wang, Pengfei, 2018. "Adverse selection and self-fulfilling business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 114-130.
    8. Jonathan Chiu & Thorsten V. Koeppl, 2016. "Trading Dynamics with Adverse Selection and Search: Market Freeze, Intervention and Recovery," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(3), pages 969-1000.
    9. Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2010. "Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 141, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Credit and credit aggregates; Financial markets; Financial stability; Interest rates; Productivity;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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