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Adverse Selection and Self-fulfilling Business Cycles

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  • Pengfei Wang

    (Hong Kong University of Science and Tech)

  • Feng Dong

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • Jess Benhabib

    (NYU)

Abstract

We develop a macroeconomic model with adverse selection in credit markets. A continuum of final-goods producers borrow from financial intermediary to purchase intermediate goods as input. The type of producers as borrower is private information. Adverse selection arises here. Higher aggregate supply of credit induces more high-quality borrowers, lowers default risks face by each financial intermediary, and stimulate more individual credit supply. We show that this lending externality can generate multiple equilibria or indeterminacy even when the steady state equilibrium is unique, making self-fulfilling expectation driven business cycles possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Pengfei Wang & Feng Dong & Jess Benhabib, 2016. "Adverse Selection and Self-fulfilling Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 1526, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:1526
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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