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Adverse selection and self-fulfilling business cycles

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  • Benhabib, Jess
  • Dong, Feng
  • Wang, Pengfei

Abstract

This paper introduces a simple adverse selection problem arising in credit markets into a standard textbook continuous-time real business cycle model. Such adverse selection generates multiple steady states and both local and global indeterminacy, and can give rise to equilibria with probabilistic jumps in credit, consumption, investment and employment driven by Markov sunspots under calibrated parameterizations and fully rational expectations. Introducing reputational effects eliminates defaults and results in a unique but still indeterminate steady state. Finally we generalize the model to firms with heterogeneous and stochastic productivity, and show that indeterminacies and sunspots persist.

Suggested Citation

  • Benhabib, Jess & Dong, Feng & Wang, Pengfei, 2018. "Adverse selection and self-fulfilling business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 114-130.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:94:y:2018:i:c:p:114-130
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.12.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Manjira Datta & Kevin Reffett & Łukasz Woźny, 2018. "Comparing recursive equilibrium in economies with dynamic complementarities and indeterminacy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(3), pages 593-626, October.
    2. Gilbert Mbaraa & Ryszard Kokoszczyński, 2018. "Corporate governance, tax evasion and business cycles," Working Papers 2018-10, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    3. Feng Dong & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2016. "Credit search and credit cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 215-239, February.
    4. Nicolas Abad & Teresa Lloyd-Braga & Leonor Modesto, 2019. "The failure of stabilization policy: balanced-budget fiscal rules in the presence of incompressible public expenditures," Working Papers hal-02331811, HAL.
    5. Feng Dong & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2016. "Credit search and credit cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 215-239, February.
    6. Kevin x.d. Huang & Qinglai Meng & Jianpo Xue, 2019. "Capital Income Taxation and Aggregate Instability," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 19-00007, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    7. Bruce McGough & Ryuichi Nakagawa, 2019. "Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning with Imperfect Information," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 005, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    8. Jonathan Swarbrick, 2019. "Lending Standards, Productivity and Credit Crunches," Staff Working Papers 19-25, Bank of Canada.
    9. Fernando M. Duarte & Anna Zabai, 2015. "An interest rate rule to uniquely implement the optimal equilibrium in a liquidity trap," Staff Reports 745, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adverse selection; Local indeterminacy; Global dynamics; Sunspots;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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