IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qed/wpaper/1267.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trading Dynamics with Adverse Selection and Search: Market Freeze, Intervention and Recovery

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Chiu

    (Bank of Canada)

  • Thorsten Koeppl

    () (Queen's University)

Abstract

We study the trading dynamics in an asset market where the quality of assets is private information of the owner and finding a counterparty takes time. When trading of a financial asset ceases in equilibrium as a response to an adverse shock to asset quality, a large player can resurrect the market by purchasing bad assets which involves financial losses. The equilibrium response to such a policy is intricate as it creates an announcement effect: a mere announcement of intervening at a later point in time can cause markets to function again. This effect leads to a gradual recovery in trading volume, with asset prices converging non-monotonically to their normal values. The optimal policy is to intervene immediately at a minimal scale when markets are deemed important and losses are small. As losses increase and the importance of the market declines, the optimal intervention is delayed and it can be desirable to rely more on the announcement effect by increasing the size of the intervention. Search frictions are important for all these results. They compound adverse selection, making a market more fragile with respect to a classic lemons problem. They dampen the announcement effect and cause the optimal policy to be more aggressive, leading to an earlier intervention at a larger scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Chiu & Thorsten Koeppl, 2011. "Trading Dynamics with Adverse Selection and Search: Market Freeze, Intervention and Recovery," Working Papers 1267, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1267
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1267.pdf
    File Function: First version 2011
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aleksander Berentsen & Gabriele Camera & C hristopher W aller, 2005. "The Distribution Of Money Balances And The Nonneutrality Of Money," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(2), pages 465-487, May.
    2. Benveniste, L M & Scheinkman, J A, 1979. "On the Differentiability of the Value Function in Dynamic Models of Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 727-732, May.
    3. Menzio, Guido & Shi, Shouyong, 2010. "Block recursive equilibria for stochastic models of search on the job," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(4), pages 1453-1494, July.
    4. Guillaume Rocheteau & Randall Wright, 2005. "Money in Search Equilibrium, in Competitive Equilibrium, and in Competitive Search Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 175-202.
    5. Edward J. Green & Ruilin Zhou, "undated". ""A Rudimentary Model of Search with Divisible Money and Prices''," CARESS Working Papres 95-17, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Robert Shimer, 1999. "Efficient Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(5), pages 893-928, October.
    7. Miguel Molico, 2006. "The Distribution Of Money And Prices In Search Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 701-722, August.
    8. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    9. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
    10. Andrew Clausen & Carlo Strub, 2012. "Envelope theorems for non-smooth and non-concave optimization," ECON - Working Papers 062, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    11. Kenneth Burdett & Shouyong Shi & Randall Wright, 2001. "Pricing and Matching with Frictions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1060-1085, October.
    12. Francisco M. Gonzalez & Shouyong Shi, 2010. "An Equilibrium Theory of Learning, Search, and Wages," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 509-537, March.
    13. Guido Menzio & Shouyong Shi, 2011. "Efficient Search on the Job and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 468-510.
    14. Julien, BenoI^t & Kennes, John & King, Ian, 2008. "Bidding for money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 196-217, September.
    15. Katherine M. O'Regan & John M. Quigley, 1996. "Teenage Employment and the Spatial Isolation of Minority and Poverty Households," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, pages 692-702.
    16. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    17. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1989. "On Money as a Medium of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 927-954, August.
    18. Aleksander Berentsen & Gabriele Camera & Christopher Waller, 2004. "The distribution of money and prices in an equilibrium with lotteries," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 24(4), pages 887-906, November.
    19. Zhu, Tao, 2005. "Existence of a monetary steady state in a matching model: divisible money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 135-160, August.
    20. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
    21. Shouyong Shi, 2009. "Directed Search for Equilibrium Wage-Tenure Contracts," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 561-584, March.
    22. Ruilin Zhou, 1996. "Individual and aggregate real balances in a random matching model," Staff Report 222, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    23. Shapley, Lloyd S & Shubik, Martin, 1977. "Trade Using One Commodity as a Means of Payment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 937-968, October.
    24. Zhou, Ruilin, 1999. "Individual and Aggregate Real Balances in a Random-Matching Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1009-1038, November.
    25. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Inflation and Welfare in the Steady State," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 561-577, June.
    26. Lagos, Ricardo & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2008. "Money and capital as competing media of exchange," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, pages 247-258.
    27. Benoit Julien & John Kennes & Ian King, 2000. "Bidding for Labor," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(4), pages 619-649, October.
    28. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1984. "A Monetary Equilibrium Model with Transactions Costs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 40-58, February.
    29. Andrew Clausen & Carlo Strub, 2012. "Envelope theorems for non-smooth and non-concave optimization," ECON - Working Papers 062, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    30. Paul Milgrom & Ilya Segal, 2002. "Envelope Theorems for Arbitrary Choice Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 583-601, March.
    31. Shouyong Shi, 1997. "A Divisible Search Model of Fiat Money," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 75-102, January.
    32. Edlin, Aaron S. & Shannon, Chris, 1998. "Strict Monotonicity in Comparative Statics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 201-219, July.
    33. Peters, Michael, 1984. "Bertrand Equilibrium with Capacity Constraints and Restricted Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1117-1127, September.
    34. Shi Shougong, 1995. "Money and Prices: A Model of Search and Bargaining," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 467-496, December.
    35. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2005. "Inflation, Output, And Welfare," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(2), pages 495-522, May.
    36. Galenianos, Manolis & Kircher, Philipp, 2008. "A model of money with multilateral matching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 1054-1066.
    37. Jonathan Chiu & Miguel Molico, 2011. "Uncertainty, Inflation, and Welfare," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 487-512, October.
    38. Trejos, Alberto & Wright, Randall, 1995. "Search, Bargaining, Money, and Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 118-141, February.
    39. Peters, Michael, 1991. "Ex Ante Price Offers in Matching Games Non-steady States," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1425-1454, September.
    40. Moen, E.R., 1995. "Competitive Search Equilibrium," Memorandum 37/1995, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    41. Alain Delacroix & Shouyong Shi, 2006. "Directed Search On The Job And The Wage Ladder," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 651-699, May.
    42. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., 1999. "On the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, pages 245-272.
    43. Dean Corbae & Ted Temzelides & Randall Wright, 2003. "Directed Matching and Monetary Exchange," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(3), pages 731-756, May.
    44. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    45. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
    46. Faig, Miquel, 2008. "Endogenous buyer-seller choice and divisible money in search equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 184-199, July.
    47. Moen, Espen R, 1997. "Competitive Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 385-411, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Han, Han, 2015. "Over-the-Counter Markets, Intermediation, and Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 68709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Taneli Mäkinen & Francesco Palazzo, 2017. "The double bind of asymmetric information in over-the-counter markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1128, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Briana Chang, 2012. "Adverse Selection and Liquidity Distortion in Decentralized Markets," 2012 Meeting Papers 403, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Geromichalos, Athanasios & Herrenbrueck, Lucas, 2016. "The Strategic Determination of the Supply of Liquid Assets," MPRA Paper 71454, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hajime Tomura, 2014. "Payment Instruments and Collateral in the Interbank Payment System," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 032, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    6. Shengxing Zhang, 2014. "Collateral Risk, Repo Rollover and Shadow Banking," 2014 Meeting Papers 562, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. repec:eee:jetheo:v:169:y:2017:i:c:p:365-399 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Sergi Jimenez-Martin & Catia Nicodemo & Stuart Redding, 2017. "The effect of changing the number of elective hospital admissions on the levels of emergency provision," Working Papers 2017-12, FEDEA.
    9. Pedro, Gomis-Porqueras, 2016. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability in Economies with Private Provision of Liquidity and Unemployment," MPRA Paper 75113, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Athanasios, Geromichalos & Kuk Mo, Jung, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Efficiency in Over-the-Counter Financial Trade," MPRA Paper 71455, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2016. "Monetary Policy, Asset Prices, and Liquidity in Over‐the‐Counter Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 35-79, February.
    12. Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, 2017. "Constrained Efficiency with Adverse Selection and Directed Search," Staff Working Papers 17-15, Bank of Canada.
    13. Michaelides, Alexander & Milidonis, Andreas & Nishiotis, George & Papakyriacou, Panayiotis, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Rating Changes and the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 8743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Yasuo Hirose & Atsushi Inoue, 2013. "Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," Departmental Working Papers 1306, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    15. Yasuo Hirose, 2014. "An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State," CAMA Working Papers 2014-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Fuchs, William & Skrzypacz, Andrzej, 2015. "Government interventions in a dynamic market with adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PA), pages 371-406.
    17. Athanasios Geromichalos & Jiwon Lee & Seungduck Lee & Keita Oikawa, 2016. "Over-the-counter trade and the value of assets as collateral," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), pages 443-475.
    18. Hajime Tomura, 2016. "Investment Horizon and Repo in the Over‐the‐Counter Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(1), pages 145-164, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trading Dynamics; Adverse Selection; Search; Intervention in Asset Markets; Announcement Effect;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
    1. Canadian Macro Study Group

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1267. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Babcock). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/qedquca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.