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The natural rate of interest in a nonlinear DSGE model

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  • Yasuo Hirose
  • Takeki Sunakawa

Abstract

This paper investigates how and to what extent nonlinearity, including the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate, affects the estimates of the natural rate of interest in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and wages. We find that the estimated natural rate of interest in a nonlinear model is substantially different from that in its linear counterpart because of a contractionary effect of the zero lower bound, and that other nonlinearities such as price and wage dispersion, from which a linear model abstracts, play a minor role in identifying the natural rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2017. "The natural rate of interest in a nonlinear DSGE model," CAMA Working Papers 2017-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-38
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2017-05/38_2017_hirose_sunakawa.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Schmidt, Sebastian & Nakata, Taisuke & Hills, Timothy, 2016. "The risky steady state and the interest rate lower bound," Working Paper Series 1913, European Central Bank.
    2. Andrés, Javier & David López-Salido, J. & Nelson, Edward, 2009. "Money and the natural rate of interest: Structural estimates for the United States and the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 758-776, March.
    3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Manuel S. Santos, 2006. "Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 93-119, January.
    4. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    5. Judd, Kenneth L. & Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei & Valero, Rafael, 2014. "Smolyak method for solving dynamic economic models: Lagrange interpolation, anisotropic grid and adaptive domain," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 92-123.
    6. Maik H. Wolters, 2018. "How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model‐based output gap estimates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 680-689, August.
    7. Yasuo Hirose & Atsushi Inoue, 2016. "The Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 630-651, June.
    8. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Manuel Santos, 2005. "Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000822, UCLA Department of Economics.
    9. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2016. "Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," Working Papers halshs-01661908, HAL.
    10. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2015. "Parameter bias in an estimated DSGE model: does nonlinearity matter?," CAMA Working Papers 2015-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Ngo, Phuong V., 2014. "Optimal discretionary monetary policy in a micro-founded model with a zero lower bound on nominal interest rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 44-65.
    12. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2018. "Estimating a nonlinear new Keynesian model with the zero lower bound for Japan," CAMA Working Papers 2018-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Malin, Benjamin A. & Krueger, Dirk & Kubler, Felix, 2011. "Solving the multi-country real business cycle model using a Smolyak-collocation method," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 229-239, February.
    14. repec:bla:jecrev:v:70:y:2019:i:1:p:51-104 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Grossman, Valerie & Martinez-Garcia, Enrique & Wynne, Mark A. & Zhang, Ren, 2019. "Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies," Globalization Institute Working Papers 359, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 31 Mar 2019.
    2. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2018. "Estimating a nonlinear new Keynesian model with the zero lower bound for Japan," CAMA Working Papers 2018-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural rate of interest; Nonlinearity; Zero lower bound; Particle filter;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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